More Winnowing
Steven L. Taylor
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Tuesday, February 2, 2016
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8 comments
So, the Democratic pool is down to two, with Martin O’Malley out. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is out on the Republican side. Neither makes much of a mathematical difference.
I would expect a more serious set of exits after New Hampshire when several dead men walking come to gripes with reality.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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I would disagree about O’Malley… the last numbers I saw had Clinton and Sanders separated by 0.3%, and O’Malley carried 0.5%, so that puts every single vote into play. Huckabee on the other hand… well, after he gave up a chance to be on stage at the last GOP debate for a side job on Trump’s Magical Mystery Tour or whatever, it’s been clear he’s going after the New Money…
@legion: I am thinking in terms of the overall race. That his presence may have mattered last night is both likely and, ultimately, irrelevant (in my opinion).
I think that Sanders could win IA and NH and still be done by March 1.
No surprise that either one dropped out. More surprising is that Santorum appears to be hanging around.
Don’t know if that was on purpose Steven, but I sure do like.
@OzarkHillbilly: A typo (but yes it works).
That Typhoid Trump garnered as much support as he did is one of my many gripes with reality.
@Steven L. Taylor: Fair enough. But Sanders’ showing gives him arguably more momentum than anyone except maybe Rubio. And Sanders really only has to defend himself against Clinton right now.
@legion: I think that Bernie has momentum in the narrative as cable news needs something to talk about.
Hillary polls better, IIRC, with African-Americans and Hispanics (far better than Bernie). This doesn’t matter in IA and NH, but will matter greatly as things go south and west. I will endeavor to find the numbers.
I honestly think that it will be clear that there is no real competition between these two candidates by the end of the night on March 1,