Obama up by 8 in Pew Poll

Via the Pew Research Center:  Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues

At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

I must confess, I was surprised that the lead was that large (the RCP average, including this poll, is +2.9 for Obama).

FILED UNDER: 2012 Election, US Politics, , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Tony W says:

    “(the RCP average, including this poll, is +2.9 for Obama” – yeah, but that average includes Rasmussen.

  2. Jr says:

    I doubt Obama is up by that much, likely 4-5 nationally.

  3. Curtis says:

    I agree that this looks like an outlier to me. But there are lots of scary things in there for the Romney campaign. The president’s support is 68% strong and 31% moderate, whereas Romney’s figures are 56% and 43%. Similarly, three-quarters of the Obama’s supporters view their vote as supporting him while more than half of the Romney voters report to be voting against the president.

    So even if the top-line numbers are off a couple of points, the profiles of each side’s supporters show that if there is to be an enthusiasm gap, that will probably favor Obama, and that would not have been the expectation a couple of months ago.