Speaking of 2024

Trump currently has a comfortable lead.

Source: The White House

The following is from the Marist poll I noted in my previous post that I thought was worth noting. Specifically, I keep seeing a lot of headlines that make it sound like Trump is in trouble as well as a lot of wishful thinking by GOP pols and allies along these lines. However, I have sincere doubts about those views.

Indeed, I would note, that Trump remains in quite a strong position for re-nomination. Yes, there is still time for a lot to change, but at the moment it cannot be dismissed that Trump remains the front-runner, and comfortably so.

Keep in mind that while we might like to console ourselves that the election itself is just under two years away, the reality is that we are only just over a year away from the start of voting in the primaries and really only roughly sixish months from campaigning on the GOP side in particular.

(Sorry to ruin everyone’s day).

At any rate, here are the numbers at the moment:

FILED UNDER: 2024 Election, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Flat Earth Luddite says:

    Thanks, Prof. T. Not surprised by this. Disappointed, but not surprised. Although my first response was “what’s that taste in the back of my throat?” Ugh.

  2. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    Did you see the Playing Card Major Announcement? Any lead he had just disappeared into the looney bin of history.

  3. Neil Hudelson says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    There is absolutely no way that after all the cringeworthy scams Trump has pulled, that this trading card business is what will put him under.

  4. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @Neil Hudelson:
    You’re probably right, but this is SOOOO pathetic that it will no doubt bring him ridicule from all sides. Friggin’ DeSantis must be happy as can be right now.

  5. CSK says:

    @Neil Hudelson: @daryl and his brother darryl:

    Even the posters at Lucianne.com, a committed MAGA hangout, are disgusted.

  6. EddieInCA says:

    DeSantis isn’t going to run unless Trump drops out or is forced out. He’s in his mid-40’s. Why put himself through the Trump meat grinder now? He can ride out four more years at Governor, pick his successor, write a book for some gravitas, and run in 2028 after Biden (or his VP) finishes the 2nd term. He’d be the GOP savior after 8 years of the “Biden Agenda”. If the economy sucks in 2027, he easily wins.

    So why run now and put himself through the Trump gauntlet? Serious question. Why?

  7. just nutha says:


    write a book for some gravitas,

    I assume you mean get somebody to ghost a book on his behalf. Even so, making this clown car reject look like he has gravitas will be a Herculean task.

  8. Sleeping Dog says:


    You need to take the opportunity when it is presented. Right now the R elites are seeking someone to beat trump and they believe DeSantis is the one. In 2028 or 2032, DeSantis could be old news or at least others will emerge. And don’t forget MAGAt may no longer be flavor of the day and he being so closely tied to it could be a disadvantage.

  9. @daryl and his brother darryl: I just saw it and put up a post. But I agree with @Neil Hudelson, it will be a blip.

  10. @EddieInCA: I tend to agree with this scenario. He is positioning himself to be available if Trump is gone, but otherwise, I wonder if his better bet is waiting.

  11. @Sleeping Dog: These are fair points, but I also do not see a pathway for GOP elites to coalesce around an alternative. They couldn’t manage it in 2016 and now Trump is the former POTUS.

    I also continue to sense an utter lack of courage (or even real interest) in GOP types ousting Trump. They missed their best chance right after 1/6 and didn’t take it.

  12. Kathy says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    With the big payoff such things could net if he went about it right, we can see how Benito is, int eh words of Rex Tillerson, a fuc**ng moron.

    It’s simple. Sell printed cards made by some entity called “Liberal Trading Card Co.”, in sets of several dozen withs a dartboard and darts, maybe also a Democrat Matchbook(TM).

    Of course El Cheeto would own the company, but on paper the owner would be a nice, sardonic, young person of color whom Benito could sue for improper use of his image. Controversy sells.

    It has everything he likes: money, notoriety, fraud, money laundering, crime.

  13. EddieInCA says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:
    @Sleeping Dog:

    Trump destroys everyone he encounters – except one: Biden.

    Cruz, Kasish, Jeb, Ryan, Fiorina, Zinke, Milley, Barr, Carson, Comey, Corker, Kinsinger, Paul, Sasse, Younkin all have Trump nicknames that would be used against them if they ever take on Trump. DeSantis would be no different.

    No one is coalescing around DeSantis. The guy plays well in Florida. Doubt he can pull it off nationally. He will wait. UNLESS Trump is convicted or forced out for other reasons.

  14. just nutha says:

    @Sleeping Dog: Given that MAGA stands for supporting White Supremacism, taxing the poor to feed the rich, and supporting any despotic bastard who comes along as long as he’s “our bastard”–IOW time-honored GOP traditions–I don’t see MAGA as a going out of style, flavor of the day proposition.

  15. wr says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: ” He is positioning himself to be available if Trump is gone, but otherwise, I wonder if his better bet is waiting.”

    That probably is his better bet. But it takes an awfully strong man to decline a presidential run when so many rich, powerful, influential people are urging, or even begging him to run. And it’s increasingly hard for me to see the guy who put out the “God needed a hero, so he got on his knees and begged me” ad as someone with that kind of character or self-knowledge.

  16. wr says:

    @wr: Oh, and apologies if any of my messages today are even more garbled or incoherent than usual. Flu shot and booster yesterday — I’m amazed I’m upright.

  17. wr says:

    @Kathy: “It has everything he likes: money, notoriety, fraud, money laundering, crime.”

    Yes, but it would require him to acknowledge there are people out there who don’t love him, and I don’t think he can do that.

  18. @wr: Totally fair.

  19. Gustopher says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl: I expect DeSantis will have his own NFTs if Trump’s do well.

  20. Flat Earth Luddite says:


    “God needed a hero, so he got on his knees and begged me”

    The sheer effrontery and unmitigated ego behind that statement boggles my goggly mind.

  21. DrDaveT says:

    Am I the only one here who is a bit flummoxed by where the highest numbers are in that poll? Among R and R-leaning voters, we have:

    63% support among heads of households with children?
    58% among under-45s — significantly higher than for older voters?
    53% in lower-income households — OK, that one makes sense.
    Women more than men, urban more than rural — WTF?

    Who are these people who still cling to their Orange Julius?

  22. Franklin says:

    @DrDaveT: I’m also concerned about that under-45s thing. The women vs men – I get the impression that less women know who DeSantis even is? Maybe name recognition is a big part of this poll – sometimes we political junkies take it for granted who people are aware of.

  23. SC_Birdflyte says:

    @EddieInCA: I think the “why” for DeSantis is that’s he’s a young man in a hurry. And it may include a calculation that Trump will be so damaged by the time the primaries roll around that he will be a toothless tiger.

  24. Hal_10000 says:

    It’s depressing that you can be traitorous weasel and still lead your party for the nomination.