Outside the Beltway

SYRIA IS NEXT!

James Joyner · Tuesday, April 15, 2003 · 1 comment

John Podhoretz thinks so–but not in the way you might think:

Syria is indeed next: It will be the next Arab country to change radically.

That doesn’t mean American forces will march on Damascus, or that U.S. smart bombs will rain down on Syrian military positions near the Golan Heights – that is, unless Syria acts in ways that seriously endanger or cost the lives of coalition forces in Iraq.

Under those circumstances, the United States would be compelled and justified to take action to ensure Syrian docility as Iraq reestablishes itself post-Saddam.

The harsh words spoken these past few days by President Bush and others are intended to warn Syrian dictator Bashar Assad: If you continue to act against the coalition, you will pay.

I think this is precisely correct. Syria has been on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list since its inception, being a co-sponsor of Hezbollah. Unlike Saddam Hussein, however, there is every indication that Bashar Assad is a rational actor who can see the writing on the wall. My guess is he can be persuaded to take the carrot–stronger diplomatic and economic ties to the West that would come from renouncing terrorism and WMD acquisition–rather than the stick. He’s seen the stick. He doesn’t want the stick.

(Hat tip: RealClear Politics)