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Michele Bachmann Leads In New Iowa Poll

A new poll from The Iowa Republican has Michele Bachmann taking the lead in the Republican primary race in the Hawkeye State:

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com.  With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.

Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent.  The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent.  Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent.

Bachmann’s campaign has taken off like a rocket since participating and announcing her presidential intentions during the CNN debate in New Hampshire last month.  Here in Iowa, Bachmann has been playing up her Iowa roots.  She officially announced her candidacy in Waterloo, the town in which she was born and spent her formative years.  The night before she made her announcement, Bachmann’s campaign hosted a rally for 500 locals who came to welcome her home.

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While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa.  Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category.  Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin.  Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.

The candidate with the next highest favorable/unfavorable spread is Tim Pawlenty with a plus 48 margin.  Like Bachmann, Pawlenty is well liked by caucus goers, but he has found it more difficult to move his overall polling number in the state.  Pawlenty finished in third place in the poll by edgeing out Herman Cain, 8.8 percent to 8.5 percent.  Pawlenty’s numbers have increased since the Des Moines Register poll showed him at 6 percent.  A major factor could be the radio and television ads the Pawlenty campaign has been airing in the past few weeks.

This poll was taken the week before the July,4th holiday so it doesn’t take into account the impact ofTim Pawlenty’s recent attacks on Michele Bachmann’s lack of anything resembling an accomplishment in her political career, an attack he kept up during his appearance on Meet The Press yesterday:

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The good news from Pawlenty’s point of view may be that Bachmann could be peaking too early. The inevitable fall from grace will come for Bachmann, and Pawlenty’s attack on her record, which is largely true, may be the start of that.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Guthrum says:

    Bachmann doesn’t fall for the political correct foolishness that many of the others are in to. It is refreshing to see a candidate that is honest with the people and doesn’t sit on the fence.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

  2. EddieInCA says:

    As I mentioned in another thread…

    If she wins Iowa, which she will…

    And if she wins New Hampshire, which she can…

    She’ll then win South Carolina and Nevada…

    At that point, who can stop her?

    What is Romney’s firewall?

    The GOP primaries are very different than Dem primaries. They’re winner take all. She could have the Nomination locked up on Super Tuesday.

    Bachmann IS the base. Doug and James are underestimating how much she is loved by the base, and how she will motivate that base to show up. Who else on the GOP side creates that energy, other than Palin. And, if Palin decides NOT to run, and throws her supporters to Bachman, the nomination is Bachmann’s.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  3. PJ says:

    @EddieInCA:

    The GOP primaries are very different than Dem primaries. They’re winner take all. She could have the Nomination locked up on Super Tuesday.

    Actually, if a state wants to hold their GOP primary in March, then it can’t be a winner take all, the delegates would have to be divided proportionally. If it is held later than March, then winner takes all primaries are ok.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  4. EddieInCA says:

    @PJ:

    Okay… Thank for for that correction. Care to surmise on my hypothesis?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. Socrates says:

    Wow, that picture of Bachmann is just weirdly disturbing.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  6. dave says:

    She may be able to win those conservative caucus voters, but would she likely be able to win in a Governor’s race or Senate race in Iowa? Not. A candidate must win the State to be president. Not just the conservative caucus voters. She has too many “negatives” to become President, though those negatives poll well in Iowa Caucus, they will not poll well across the nation. We will be divided once again…I will not even hold my nose to vote for this one. (The usual question is, why did we lose this race, and the obvious answer is, there are people that are so stupid they would write a list that would say that “blacks were better off as slaves” and then there are candidates stupid enough to sign it…no matter, even if it is removed, the thought was there.) Jesus people, get these “social issues” out of this race, we are in trouble fiscally, and we certainly don’t need a “right wing” whack job as our final choice. Sorry, Romney is not much better. (Do you honestly think it is the conservatives having abortions? Do you honestly think that in Iowa, where Gay marriage is legal, it should be an issue?) I would tell anyone running for President, to start with “dill baby drill”, and if asked about any social issues, use the old statement, “don’t ask, don’t tell”. “I am running to correct this country fiscally, I will appoint conservative judges, seems everything gets tested all the way to the Supreme Court anyway these days.” Republicans, lets please get us a fiscal conservative candidate that can beat Obama, one that does not have to endure the “hate bombs”, one that we can count on the Independent Vote, and the Conservative Democrat. Let us win by big margins and take our country back.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0