College Football Playoff Chaos
The four-team Playoff will go out making a lot of folks mad.
For most of the history of top-level college football there was no national championship. Teams who had good seasons were rewarded with a postseason bowl game and the sportswriters of the Associated Press poll and the coaches in the United Press Agency voted for which teams they thought they deserved to be ranked highest. For the last twenty-five years, there has been some sort of playoff system. From 1998-2013, the Bowl Championship Series pitted the top two ranked teams in the country in a bowl game at the end of the season, ensuring that one team could claim a championship. Since 2014, a College Playoff Selection Committee has chosen a four-team field to play for a title. Starting next season, the committee will choose a 12-team field.
Alas, the 12-team playoff comes one year too late. While there has always been some debate about which team deserved the four spot, there has been nothing like this season. Week after week, the top-ranked teams kept on winning, with the only losses coming when two highly-ranked teams played each other. Almost every other year of the Playoff, one or more of the so-called Power Five conferences produced a champion with two or more losses; not so this year.
Michigan won the Big Ten, going undefeated against a lackluster schedule. But the Big Ten is considered one of the two best conferences in the sport and wins over Ohio State and Penn State prove them a worthy contender.
Washington won the Pac-12, in what will be the last year of that conference as we know it, going undefeated against a surprisingly difficult schedule. A league that has long been considered the weakest of the Power Five went out with a very good year.
Florida State won a very down Atlantic Coast Conference, going undefeated despite playing its last game and a half without its superstar quarterback and playing the championship game with a freshman making his first start at the position. The ACC was down this year, but they did beat Louisiana State early in the year—alas, with said superstar quarterback.
Texas won the Big 12 in their last year in the conference. The conference has missed several of the playoffs, either because its champion had multiple losses and/or because the conference was considered relatively weak. Texas’ only loss came to Oklahoma, who was ranked 12th in the Committee’s penultimate poll, and they beat Alabama, ranked 8th in the penultimate poll, in week 2 of the season on the road.
Alabama rallied from that early upset to roll off eleven straight wins, including an upset of Georgia in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game. Georgia was ranked #1 in that penultimate poll and was coming off back-to-back national championships, having won 29 straight games since their loss to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship Game.
Georgia lost that game by a mere 3 points and would almost surely be favored in a neutral-site matchup with either Washington or FSU.
Ohio State lost by 6 points, on the road, to Michigan in their season-ending rivalry game. They were ranked #2 in the poll before that and had been #1 before being surpassed by Georgia. They, too, would almost surely be favored to beat Washington and, certainly, FSU.
That’s seven deserving teams. There are only four spots.
The Committee’s remit, ostensibly, is to choose the Four Best Teams, not the Four Most Deserving Teams. They have been wildly inconsistent in previous iterations.
Here’s how I’d rank them.
Joyner’s Seven Best
This is how I’d rank each team’s chance of winning two games if selected. (For Florida State, I’m assuming their backup quarterback will have long since cleared concussion protocol and be able to play.)
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Florida State
Joyner’s Seven Most Deserving
Here, I’ve simply ranked the undefeated conference champions, followed by the one-loss conference champions, followed by one-loss non-champions, with my “best” teams ranked within those categories unless there’s a head-to-head tiebreaker:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Florida State
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
Joyner’s Best Deserving Teams
This is how I’d rank the teams were I selecting the Playoff. Granted, I’m an Alabama alumnus and fan. But I think the games have to matter, so I put Texas ahead of Alabama. On the other hand, I left out FSU because, however cruel it is to leave out a team than won 13 games because an injury took out their best player, Alabama could give Michigan a good game and, indeed, win the whole thing. I don’t think anyone outside Tallahassee thinks FSU could do either.
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida State
- Ohio State
Joyner’s Prediction of the CFP Selection
Here’s what I think the Committee will actually do:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Florida State
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
Even though this makes for bad television, I just can’t imagine they’ll leave out an undefeated Power 5 team. At the same time, it would be absolute malpractice to rank Florida State above Texas, giving top-seeded Michigan a first-round game they very much could lose while essentially giving Washington a first-round bye.
___________________________
Here, I’ll round up predictions from sportswriters.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who covers the CFB Committee as her main beat, agrees with my preferred rankings. She only goes through 6, but presumably Ohio State is 7th:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida State
Stewart Mandel, editor-in-chief of college football coverage for The Athletic, goes through a long process based on mocks he’s done with the Committee over the years. It’s paywalled and too long to excerpt here, but he comes down with this:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Texas
- Florida State
One reason I didn’t excerpt his longish explanation is that he then contradicts it, saying that he thinks they’ll actually put FSU in at 4, making his prediction:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Alabama
- Florida State
Even as an Alabama fan, I would be angry if we got in as the 3 seed and Texas, who beat us at home by 10, got left out. But I honestly don’t think there’s any question Michigan, Washington, and Texas get in. I think the competition is for the 4 seed.
Andy Staples, On3:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
On3’s Jesse Simington:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Georgia
USA Today‘s Paul Myerberg:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oregon
Dallas Morning News‘ Kevin Sherrington:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
Action Network’s Brett McMurphy:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
ESPN’s Dan Mullen (former Mississippi State and Florida head coach):
- Michigan
- Washington
- Florida State
- Texas
ESPN’s Joey Galloway:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
_______________________________
I’m taking the wife out to lunch. I’ll update with the Committee’s final rankings later.
UPDATE: The Committee ultimately followed my “Best Deserving Teams” rankings through the four that mattered. ESPN:
Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama have been selected by the College Football Playoff committee to vie for the national championship, leaving out Florida State — the first time in CFP history an undefeated Power 5 champion failed to finish in the top four.
The Seminoles finished fifth despite going 13-0 and winning an ACC championship on Saturday night, down to its third-string quarterback after injuries to starter Jordan Travis (leg) and backup Tate Rodemaker (concussion). Defending national champion Georgia (No. 6), another team with a compelling argument for playoff inclusion, is also on the outside looking in.
The Wolverines and Huskies as undefeated conference champions were considered virtual shoo-ins to make the CFP. Michigan is in the playoff for the third straight year. Washington, on the other hand, has been in the CFP only once before, losing in the semifinals in the 2016 season.
The path to the playoff was a bit murkier for Texas and Alabama.
Texas is back in the running for the national championship after booking its first trip to the playoff. Led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns went 12-1 and won the Big 12 championship in their first appearance in the conference title game since its return in 2017. Texas’ lone loss came at the hands of Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game. Both schools will head to the SEC after this season, but the Longhorns already got an SEC boost this year. Texas notched perhaps the biggest win of the college football season by going on the road in September and beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama proved that one big win can sometimes make up for one early loss. The Crimson Tide are in the playoff a day after ending Georgia’s 29-game, 728-day winning streak with a 27-24 victory in the SEC championship game. Nick Saban’s squad faced challenges atypical for Alabama, losing at home to Texas in the second game of the season and otherwise scuffling through the early part of the schedule. Part of the issue was uncertainty at quarterback. Jalen Milroe started and finished the season as the team’s top QB, but both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner were given chances to take control of the position in Tommy Rees’ first year as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. Bama will now have a chance to win its fourth College Football Playoff title in the final year of the four-team format.
Its win over Georgia shifted the dynamic on Saturday. At that point, it felt like an inevitability that the SEC champion would make it into the playoff, because of the league’s dominance in the CFP since its inception — and the near-nonstop lobbying both Alabama coach Nick Saban and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey have done over the past week to support Alabama’s case.
But the real dynamic shift happened on Nov. 18, when Florida State lost Travis for the season with a leg injury. The Seminoles were placed under greater scrutiny to see how they would respond without their team leader and ACC Player of the Year.
While I’m happy with the result as both an Alabama fan and a fan of good college football matchups, this is a bitter pill to swallow for Florida State fans. The last time an undefeated Power 5 team got left out was in 2004, when USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all went undefeated (along with Utah of the Mountain West and Boise State of the Western Athletic Conference) and Auburn had to settle for a matchup with Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.
While I’m also happy that Alabama was able to end Georgia’s run, it’s also tough for their fans that a three-point loss in a championship game after 29 straight wins keeps them out of contention to defend their title.
Regardless, the Committee agreed with my logic (and that of most of the prognosticators listed above:
Corrigan said the decision for the No. 4 spot was between Alabama and Florida State. Alabama won out despite Florida State finishing with a higher strength of record (No. 3) than Alabama (No. 4). The Seminoles also went 2-0 against SEC teams this season — including an emphatic victory over LSU to open the season. But ultimately, all that mattered to the committee was the injury to Travis.
Alabama’s win Saturday ended Georgia’s pursuit of a third straight national championship. The Bulldogs had won 29 straight games, but Saturday’s ill-timed loss to Alabama in the SEC title game left Georgia out. As a result, the Bulldogs become the first No. 1 team in the penultimate CFP rankings to fall out of the top four after losing on Championship Weekend.
Michigan will face Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential, while Washington will play Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Both semifinal games will be played on New Year’s Day and aired on ESPN.
But I feel vindicated because of this:
The Wolverines and Longhorns were installed as the early favorites in their respective semifinals by ESPN BET. Michigan opened as 2-point favorites over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Texas opened as a 4-point favorite over Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
Had FSU gotten the 3 or 4 spot as the “most deserving” team, they would likely have been 13-point underdogs.
Milestones:
- Texas’ first appearance in the Playoff
- The first time an undefeated Power 5 team has missed the Playoff
- The first time the #1 team in the penultimate ranking (Georgia) fell out of the Playoff
- The highest a team (Alabama) climbed from the penultimate ranking (#8) to make the Playoff
That said, to some degree this is a recruiting/coaching issue as well as an injury issue – if they had recruited two “best” quarterbacks then they’d have a good backup and would not be in this position.
Despite being a WSU Cougar, I am pleased to see Washington in every single list’s top 4.
They ned to leave out FSU. Their schedule was weak so they were iffy even with their star QB. I dont see how you leave out the SEC. I think they replace FSU with Alabama. Even at that Georgia fans, and the SEC in general, will still be pissed and probably with some justification.
Steve
Look at it from the bright side: Next year, everyone will have different reasons to but will still complain that the process leaves out a deserving contender.
@Tony W: In fairness, their backup quarterback played reasonably well in relief against North Alabama, to whom FSU was inexplicably behind with their star quarterback, and in a start against Florida last week. He suffered a concussion and was out for the championship against a mediocre Louisville team that had just lost to Kentucky, leaving the third-string freshman to start. He was terrible but the defense carried them to an unimpressive win.
@steve: Mostly analysts think that’s what happens. I’m skeptical.
@just nutha: Oh, for sure. But it’s rare that there are four teams who could reasonably win the playoff, much less thirteen or more. At that point, you’re looking at teams with two and three losses.
Sorry, Dr. Joyner –
East coast bias. I think Washington will beat any team they play this season. I expect them to win it all. And I expect them to put up 35-50 points in each game.
The problem is that the people on the CFP committee don’t know ball. If the point is to pick the best 4 teams today, alabama has to be there.
However, they have also decided to value Being Undefeated and Winning A Conference Championship. So, unfortunately, Texas’ early-season win over Alabama means my money, were I a gambling man, would be Texas and FSU both get in over the SEC duo.
As to FSU’s backup QB.. OSU’s last title was with their 3rd string QB, Cardale Jones, so I don’t think the QB status will change anything. Note that 3rd string FSU QB was originally committed to Ohio State during the recruiting process.
Like James, I have a dog (or, more specifically, a Longhorn) in this fight.
Having said that, head-to-head has to matter, so I think any ranking has to put Texas over Alabama and Alabam over Georgia.
But I also agree that FSU, which went undefeated, and even if they were suuuuuper boring last night, that makes it hard for me to kick them out.
I tend to agree with James, the most deserving under the rules are Michigan, Washington, Texas, and FSU but Bama is better than FSU (as is Georgia, for that matter).
I will also say that FSU is going to be healthier in a month, so they may not be the bye they appear to be.
Still, I think it is quite likely that FSU will lose out and Bama is the beneficiary.
@just nutha: Sure, but that is a feature, not a bug (at least from the POV of sports commentators and bar owners!).
@Gavin:
But it’s not just that. It is being undefeated (or in Texas’s and Alabama’s case 1-loss) with where you have been in the rankings. If Texas had been ranked, say, 9th, and had the game they had yesterday, they would not be in the conversation.
Strength of schedule and other factors matter as well.
@EddieInCA: I haven’t watched Washington a ton and think they have a decent argument for being ranked ahead of Michigan because of strength of schedule. I just think 1 and 2 are not really up for debate.
@Gavin: It’s true that Ohio State won the championship in the first year of the CFP with Jones. But, first, despite all the talk of “3rd string quarterback,” the was the backup all year. The 1st stringer went out before the season started. And OSU was on the outside looking in before they beat Wisconsin 59-0 with Jones under center in the Big Ten Championship. FSU’s 3rd stringer really is a 3rd stringer and he was terrible. That said, the 2nd stringer, who was decent but a huge dropoff, would likely be back for the Playoff.
@Steven L. Taylor: May you be right on Bama/FSU. And, yes, to me there’s just no good argument for Bama to be in and Texas out given the head-to-head result; it’s Bama vs FSU with both having strong cases. There are times when overall circumstances negate head-to-head but they don’t obtain here.
@Gavin: @Steven L. Taylor: In fairness, the agreement between conferences that makes the CFP possible specifies that conference champions should be given precedence unless a non-champion is “unequivocally better.” That has resulted in the SEC (Georgia-Bama in 2017; Bama-Georgia in 2021), ACC (Clemson-Notre Dame in 2020), and the Big Ten (Michigan-Ohio State in 2022) getting two teams in. Every other time, it has been either four conference champions or three and Notre Dame (which has quasi-conference status under the weird rules of the system but essentially has to go undefeated because it doesn’t participate in a conference championship game unless they’re a quasi-ACC member during the COVID year).
Michigan at #1? OSU out of the picture? I’ll take all that. Go Blue!
@Steven L. Taylor: Exactly my point!
I’ll just drop in to say my usual spiel – that college football is an exploitative racket.
Carry on…
OK, off topic, but. I’ve mentioned here I’m looking for a latin name for a common fallacy I call the argument from imperfection, “I have found a flaw in this {argument, policy, program}, therefore it’s all crap.” “Bidenomics hasn’t cut the price of _____, therefore it’s a failure.”
I also constantly see what I call the college football fallacy. A statement like, “There has to be a game to decide who’s the college football champion.” It sounds right when you say it, but it doesn’t stand up to a moments examination. We went decades without one and nobody died.
I also need a name for a related fallacy, common among pundits, of saying something must happen when we all know it won’t happen. “Republicans must nominate someone other than Trump.”
@Andy: I will note, despite my complicity in watching it, you aren’t wrong.
The announcement was made.
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Alabama
They left out FSU.
Travesty, and proving again that there is a pro-SEC bias.
Bullshit that an UNDEFEATED team from a Power 5 Conference gets left out over a 1 loss SEC team.
Absolute Bullshit.
For me it might be …
Michigan
Alabama
Georgia
Washington
The Pac-Whatever is very underrated this year. I mean Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, and even erratic-USC can arguably compete with any team in any conference. Even California, a 6-6 team, played Auburn, a 6-6 team, to a narrow loss this year.
The same things said about FSU this year were said about TCU getting into the playoff last year. TCU then upset Michigan — the “better” team — in their first playoff game. Because you don’t get extra points for being better on paper. It’s a sport with an actual score, it’s not a pageant.
I don’t get the whole best team / eye test unspoken rule. If that’s the case, why play games? Before yesterday, the eye test would have told us Georgia was a much better team than Alabama. But Alabama (barely) won the actual contest. Georgia had an off night and is probably still “better” than Alabama. Would anybody pick this Alabama team to win a best of 7 series against Georgia? Probably not. But should Georgia have been awarded the SEC championship by acclimation based on that? No. They lost. That’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes (ask the Brady-Moss 18-1 2007 Patriots).
So I don’t buy that Alabama is somehow better than FSU. Based on what? Alabama has looked shaky all year, hardly some juggernaut. The game is decided on the field. FSU won all its games, that’s what should matter. Sucks for those kids and their fans, families and coaches.
Good luck to them all in bowl season.
A Travesty to the Sport
A Power Five team with an undefeated record, three Top 25 wins, an 8-0 record against bowl-eligible P5 teams, and a 19-game winning streak will not have a chance to play for the national championship. Let that sink in….
Fucking outrageous. And I’m not even an FSU fan.
Speaking as both an apostate and a luddite, I don’t really follow college ball*, but I’m enjoying this blog and responses enormously.
Grandma’s lessons from running a cardroom for the Old Men were (1) never bet when you’re emotionally invested and (2) never bet the team, bet the point spread.
* Full disclosure, I had to enter the Witness Protection Program to escape the Husky Alumni Committee.
ETA I live in a household of rabid Ducks. Friday night was painful at Casa Luddite. Qvack!!
@EddieInCA: @DK: @EddieInCA: There were only four slots and seven deserving teams. No matter who got snubbed, history was going to be made in a bad way.
College ball isn’t the NFL. Schedules aren’t remotely comparable and there are 128 teams. It’s really hard to judge who’s best from the limited sample, and there’s absolutely bias based on the prior performance of leagues. That the SEC has won 13 of the last 17 national championships (including three all-SEC Finals matchups) weighs heavily in their favor.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
The same can be said for boxing. Years ago, I remember a gentleman’s bet with a coworker about one the Ali/Spinks fights. I took Ali at book value and my coworker said “You think Ali will win?” To which I replied, “No, but I DO think he’ll answer the bell for round 7. After that happens, the outcome of the match is immaterial to me.”
@James Joyner:
Which is why, when the system expands to 12(?) for next year, there will be someone (probably a Baman, Texan, or Notre Dame fan) who will say the pool’s too small, it needs to be 16.
You’ll never be able to have the definitive answer people claim to want with a system where teams compete in one-off sudden death contests.
@James Joyner:
This is true. The NFL has an actual playoff and at least produces a more legitimate champion, if not always the most deserving champion a la the NBA or MLB. I’m looking forward to the expansion of the CFP.
The issue is that SEC bias is a compounding bias. Yes, the SEC has won 13 of the last 17 national championships, but how many of those teams were selected into the BCS or CFP over teams from other conferences that could have won given the opportunity to compete? After a pretty shaky season, Bama has backed into the playoff on a hail Mary against Auburn then a field goal against Georgia, just by doing in the SEC. Alabama could then win the playoff, adding to the SEC’s aura, but are they the best or most deserving team? Maybe, maybe not.
That is where the “best team” standard fails. If that’s the standard, then Kirby Smart is right: Georgia is still one of the top 4 teams and should still be in despite barely losing to Alabama on its first off-night in two years. Doesn’t make sense to say “best team” when evaluating Alabama vs. FSU but “who won, who lost?” with Alabama vs. Georgia.
But you are right. In the current system, it’s true there will always be snubs. They need an updated system.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: I agree that it’ll never be definitive. And it actually gets worse in some ways next year, as the best teams from the Big 12 and Pac-12 are moving to the SEC and Big Ten, further making those conferences a Power 2 and virtually assuring they’ll have more losses than teams in junior conferences just based on the strength of competition.
@DK: Yeah, while there are problems with an expanded Playoff, I think you have to guarantee that all the major conference champions get a shot. It would honestly be better if all the conferences played a round robin and eschewed a championship game. But at least divisions, which are often wildly lopsided, go away.
It wouldn’t be college sports if someone, somewhere couldn’t whine that they got left out unfairly.
I don’t really have a serious quibble with the 4 selected, although I would also have put FSU into the mix instead of Alabama. My alma mater (UF) had a rancid year, but came close to beating both FSU and # 9 Mizzou. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
@Slugger: 😀
I find it increasingly difficult to remember why I used to care who won college football games, apart from obvious positions like enjoying it when Ohio State or Alabama loses.
That said… As a decision analysis professional, I will note that you can either try to identify the best team, or you can crown a champion — i.e., a winner. You can’t do both, and any attempt to blend the two is misguided. The best team does not always win, and we would enjoy sports much less if they did.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
I, too, would vote for more sports posts. If this were a democracy lol
@James Joyner:
I’ve never heard this posited and this makes a lot of sense.
So you can count on college football making sure it doesn’t happen any time soon.
@DK: I would too. But only because it shows this crew will argue about anything.
@DK: I remember articles about a round-robin playoff from before Joyner was born. The ultimate case against it was that you’d not be able to include all the “qualified” teams without shrinking the regular season–which was 10 games in those days (games didn’t start in August like they do now).
Just for the yuks, I went to the “playoffs” article somewhere (ESPN.com, it turns out). I haven’t been following this for years because even 10 years ago, it was clear that every wide spot in the road was trying to find 2 teams that would draw a crowd for a post-season “holiday classic.” Both the locations and the sponsors are a hoot and a half. 😀 My faves (with added details as the absurdity warrants):
Vrbo has entered the big time as the sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl (last time I’d checked, Doritos was the sponsor).
Myrtle Beach Bowl (featuring Georgia Southern and Ohio)
Cricket Celebration Bowl in Atlanta
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl from Orlando (home of the Citrus Bowl long ago, IIRC)
Isleta New Mexico Bowl (Taking a cue from the early days of the Famous Idaho Potatoes Bowl by featuring NM State)
The LA Bowl (LA being famous enough to not require a corporate sponsor, I guess) Again, taking a page from Famous Potatoes by featuring UCLA and Boise State (which no longer needs it’s state to sponsor a bowl game for it, or so it seems)
Famous Toastery Bowl from Charlotte NC
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Quick Lane Bowl from Detroit
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com (which, strangely enough, features VA Tech and Tulane)
Wasabi Fenway Bowl from Fenway Park (a baseball stadium? I thought we’d decided not to do multi-purpose stadia any more)
and, last but not least (drum roll please…) [cymbal splash]
The Pop Tarts Bowl
College football has entered the everyone-gets-a-participation-trophy era. And a well deserved entrance it is, too. (Plenty of other bowls at the site, BTW, including that the Citrus Bowl is still a thing and that many stadia are booked for several events during the bowl games month.)
Bad economy? Hogwash! A lie propagated by poor people who want all our stuff without earning it for themselves.