DETERRENCE PRESUMES RATIONALITY
DETERRENCE PRESUMES RATIONALITY: Brookings scholar Ken Pollack’s NYT editorial is well worth reading. He makes a very solid case for why Saddam won’t be effectively deterred by mere inspections and sanctions:
[W]e cannot forget that all evidence has shown Saddam Hussein to be an incorrigible optimist who willfully ignores signs of danger. Consider that on at least five occasions over the last three decades, he has embarked on foreign policy adventures that nearly destroyed him: his attack on Iraq’s Kurds in 1974 (which might have ended in an Iranian assault on Baghdad if the shah of Iran had not unexpectedly decided to double-cross the Kurds instead); his invasion of Iran in 1980; his invasion of Kuwait in 1990; his assassination attempt against former President Bush in 1993; and his threatened attack on Kuwait in 1994. In each case, he took a course of action that we know even his closest advisers considered extremely dangerous.
He appears about to repeat the same mistake. Unfortunately, the reluctance of many in the UN to step up to the plate has helped persuade him he’s taking a reasonable gamble. (via RCP)