Elections and Markets
Paul at Wizbang, Sean Hackbarth, and Kevin McGeehee ponder the presidential polls and whether the advent of election betting markets don’t provide a better predictive device.
It’s an interesting point, although this specific market mechanism doesn’t have enough of a track record to really evaluate at this point. Indeed, one would guess that polls and these markets are rather interrelated, as people betting large sums of money on an election outcome likely follow the polls rather closely.
