Mitt Romney’s Future
The anti-Trump Republican could find re-election difficult.
Business Insider/YahooNews (“Mitt Romney could face a ‘divisive’ re-election campaign in 2024 after backing both Trump impeachments and breaking with conservatives“):
When Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah was elected to the US Senate in 2018, he had the explicit backing of then-President Donald Trump.
Four years later, it wouldn’t be a mistake to call him the most anti-Trump Republican in the chamber. And he still hasn’t said whether he’ll seek re-election in his deep-red state next year.
“Anybody that thinks this isn’t gonna be a divided race, and a divisive one, is either lying to you or they don’t know,” said Utah Republican Party Chair Carson Jorgensen in a phone interview with Insider.
Romney voted to convict the former president during both of his impeachments, first on abuse of power charges in 2020 and then incitement of an insurrection in 2021. And it’s not hard for reporters on Capitol Hill to seek out Romney for a quip about the former president. After the 2022 midterm elections, the senator was quoted calling Trump an “albatross” on the party’s electoral prospects and a “gargoyle” hanging over the Republican Party.
The Utah Republican, who was the party’s presidential nominee a decade ago, has broken with the majority of his party on other high-profile issues as well. He voted for the bipartisan infrastructure law, new gun restrictions, a bill to protect same-sex marriage, and was one of just three Republican senators who voted to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court last April.
Most recently, he was among a group of 18 Republican senators who voted for a nearly $1.7 trillion omnibus government spending bill opposed by the party’s grassroots.
“That wasn’t really popular amongst Utahns,” Jorgensen said of the omnibus, saying Romney’s vote on the government funding bill, as well as his vote for Jackson, had upset even conservatives “who aren’t in the Trump corner.”
If Romney chooses to run again, he’ll have to explain all of that to Republican primary voters back home.
The Utah senator told Insider at the Capitol last month that he had not yet decided whether to run, but was “keeping my options open.”
Jorgensen also pointed to Romney’s neutrality during the 2022 election — which prompted fellow Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee to publicly plead for Romney’s endorsement on national television during his race against independent Evan McMullin — as a reason for party activists to distrust him. Romney was the only Republican senator who did not publicly back Lee.
“That’s probably something that they’ll hold over his head,” said Jorgensen. “In Utah, when you don’t say anything, it kind of speaks volumes.”
But the state is also unique in the nature of its Republican electorate — Trump significantly underperformed previous GOP presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020. Mormons, who make up the vast majority of Utah’s population, have historically been less supportive of Trump than other conservative constituencies.
“Of all the Republican states, this is the state that has been probably the least Trump-friendly,” said one Utah Republican consultant, who requested anonymity to speak frankly. But the consultant added that he’d seen polling showing Romney polling in the “low 40s” in a potential primary — enough to get by in a crowded field, but potentially perilous in a head-to-head battle.
In Washington, Romney can count on the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who told Politico that it’s “important for the Republican Party and the country” that the Utah Republican seek re-election. McConnell also said he would “absolutely” be willing to make significant outside investments in the campaign. Romney has also proven to be an able fundraiser himself, bringing in $5.5 million during his 2018 bid.
“Running an election against an incumbent senator who is personally wealthy is a big ask,” said the consultant. “He will have all the money to try and influence the narrative through advertising that he needs, either through raising it, or spending it himself.”
I suspect Romney would win re-election rather easily were he to run. While he was awkward on the presidential stage in 2012—mostly because he was trying to pretend to be a “severe conservative” rather than the pragmatist that he actually is—he’s a top-flight politician with enormous advantages in incumbency, institutional support, and essentially unlimited funds.
My question, as is often the case, is Why? Romney is a very wealthy man in good health with a large family. He’ll turn 76 in less than two months, meaning he’ll be on the verge of 78 when he’s sworn in for a second term and almost 84 when that term ends. Why endure the indignities of another campaign for the rather mediocre (by rich, famous guy standards) life of a Senate backbencher?
Add to that the fact that he’s essentially a man without a party. He’s too conservative for the Democrats and too sane for the Republicans. Aside from Mitch McConnell and maybe Joe Manchin, who is he even going to want to have lunch with?
This post led me to an interesting 538 chart on how congress-critters voted. Romney voted with Trump 75.0% of the time, low for a Republican, but actually a little higher than expected from the Trump margin in his state. Mike Lee is actually a tick lower. I think this Business Insider article can safely be filed under “got column inches to fill” and forgotten.
“Why?” is a question Atrios asks fairly often. Even about people like Musk. The Australian Open happens to be going on now. Why does someone like Rafa Nadal continue subjecting an old, by tennis standards, body to a severe fitness and training regimen when he lives on Mallorca with a beautiful wife and a couple hundred mil in the bank? As high as his prize money still is, he’s gotta be making far more off investments. My psych 102 class said something about past a certain level of wealth it’s scorekeeping. I tend to think that, after decades, single minded obsession becomes a hard habit to break.
The fact that this is even a legitimate question is a perfect example of why, once a party goes far enough off the rails, it will only become more extreme. The Repubs did worse then expected in the mids because they ran so many extreme candidates and the reaction is to primary a very conservative, very successful long term Senator who has been bring home the bacon to Utah for decades. I don’t like Romney and never have (more for his deeply unethical and immoral business practices than for his politics), but I can recognize that if election losses had the “corrective effect” so often talked about his influence would be increasing, not diminishing.
Because ex-Senate backbencher doesn’t get you the best tables at your favorite restaurants?