New Poll Shows Rand Paul +11 In Kentucky

On the heels of a SurveyUSA poll that was criticized by many for what seemed like a sample that was overly biased toward Democrats, a new Rasmussen poll shows Rand Paul leading in the Kentucky race by double digits:

Republican Rand Paul continues to hold a double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Kentucky shows Paul earning 49% support, while Conway picks up 38% of the vote. Five percent (5%) favor some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The race is still Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.  Three weeks ago, Paul held a 54% to 39% lead over Conway, Kentucky’s current attorney general.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Kentucky Republicans support Paul, as do nearly one-in-four Democrats (24%). Conway has the backing of just 67% of voters in his own party. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer Paul by nearly 20 points.

So, the race seems to be still in Paul’s to lose, but it’s not over yet. Here’s the upcoming debate schedule:

*Fox News, moderated by Chris Wallace. 9 a.m Oct. 3.

*Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce Covington, Oct. 11.

*Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce, Oct. 14.

*University of Louisville/WHAS, Oct. 17.

*Kentucky Educational Television, Oct. 25.

Paul will either seal the deal, or give Conway an opening.

Update: Since it’s not directly accessible at the link, here is the partisan breakdown for the sample that Rasmussen uses in this poll:

Democratic: 46%

Republican: 38%

Independent: 16%

As with all polls, of course, this is based on self-identification from the poll respondent.

FILED UNDER: 2010 Election, US Politics, , , , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Tano says:

    So what was the partisan breakdown in this poll?

  2. Tano says:

    Hmmm. I guess that silence means that we don’t know what the breakdown is.

    So if the one poll is discredited because its breakdown is almost exactly. but not really exactly the same as the breakdown in the last election, how much stock should we put in a poll where we have no clue as to how close the breakdown is to reality?

  3. Tano,

    The lack of instant responses to comments usually means someone is, well, doing something else.

    The breakdown is at the link.

  4. Tano says:

    Ah, no it isn’t Doug. Is it behind their pay-firewall? If so, would you share it with us?

  5. My apologies. I forgot that RR has started putting poll details behind the paywall.

    I’ll update the post with some of the demographics.