Pre-Debate Benchmarking, Vice-Presidential Edition
As I did last week before the first Presidential debate, I’m posting two of the major RealClearPolitics benchmarks of the state of the Presidential race. In part, this is my own effort to document the state of the race to see what, if any, impact these debates are actually having on the race. Also, consider it an Open Thread to talk about the debate when it starts later tonight.
First, here’s the National Popular Vote:
And, second, here’s the Electoral College Map:
We saw some major changes to both of these over the past week, let’s see where they are a week from now.
RCP uses an extremely expansive definition of “toss up.”
Who really considers Michigan, Missouri, and Pennsylvania “toss ups?” Obama has not been tied in Missouri, and Romney has not even tied in Michigan or Pennsylvania. It’s silly to pretend that those states are too close to call. They’re not.
A more accurate reading of the race would be Obama 237 and Romney 191.
A week from now, RCP could be showing 237 and 191, but it wouldn’t reflect an actual change in where the race is.
Big problem for Romney is that even a slight reversion to the mean could not only put those states back in Obama’s column, but also Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada.
I guess that’s the problem with relying on public polls instead of other avenues of insight. Colorado and Nevada are both considered toss-ups. But, they’re not remotely as likely to flip (ground game and registrations indicate Nevada is a steep climb for Romney, but Colorado is likely in his column right now).
Ditto Ohio and Florida.
Also, is it really possible that one week ago Obama looked like he had this thing sewn up?
Remarkable.