Romney Up Big In Illinois
According to the final Public Policy Polling poll, Mitt Romney looks to be headed to a big victory in Illinois on Tuesday:
Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Romney’s particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he’s even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn’t tended to do that well with is why he’s looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.
Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative.’ Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney’s also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.
We’ve tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that’s not the case in Illinois. Romney’s favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we’ve found him this year. Santorum’s at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we’ve seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.
There’s hasn’t been a lot of polling in Illinois, but these numbers are largely consistent with the numbers we have seen this week from Rasmussen and in a p0ll conducted by the Fox affiliate in Chicago. Assuming that the numbers hold up, then Romney stands to garner a sizable majority of the state’s 69 delegates, thus putting this contest even further out of reach for his opponents. Of course, Rick Santorum is already behind the gun there given the fact that he failed to file delegate slates in four of Illinois Congressional Districts, meaning that he is actually only contesting for 44 of the 69 possible delegates at the most, and would be likely to win no more that about 20 out of that in any case. Of course, don’t expect a Romney victory to close the door on this race.