The Economy and the Shutdown

I guess it is a good thing that the government has nothing to do with the economy…

Via Gallup:  Economic Confidence Plummets as Gov’t Shutdown Begins

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index’s three-day rolling average stands at -34 for Oct. 1-3, down 14 points from Sept. 27-29, and the lowest such average since December 2011.

Gallup Economic Confidence Index, Sept. 3-Oct. 3, 2013

FILED UNDER: Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. anjin-san says:

    It’s been a while since the GOP did any serious damage to the wealth of the American public. I am sure there is a faction of Republicans that is excited about being back in the saddle.

  2. grumpy realist says:

    This is the “holy shit, these f*ckers are really stupid enough to do this!” realization starting to hit in.

    Enjoy the Frankenstein Monster your party created, boys!

  3. Rob in CT says:

    Remember when “uncertainty” was a big deal?

    Hahahahahahahaha.

    They lie, constantly, about everything. Seriously. I’m sorry, I know this sounds horribly partisan. It is partisan. It’s also true.

  4. Scott says:

    For the Republicans, the fact that the shutdown can negatively impact the economy is a feature, not a bug.

  5. john personna says:

    I was just reading on “Reason” that we wouldn’t have this problem if Obama hadn’t shut down the government …

  6. mantis says:

    Like I’ve been saying: they are terrorists. This is just proof their tactic is working. People are freaking out. That’s the first step to success for terrorists.

    We are setting precedents here. Do we want to be a nation constantly governed by terror tactics, with the minority party holding the economy hostage every few months, or do we want to be a functioning republic that isn’t doomed to self-destruct? That is the choice we face.

  7. al-Ameda says:

    @john personna:

    I was just reading on “Reason” that we wouldn’t have this problem if Obama hadn’t shut down the government …

    This is what we’re dealing with – Libertarians are bankrupt too.
    Nick Gillespie and his crew have tethered their hopes to the Ted Cruz-Eric Cantor Axis. Nick and his commentariat associates feel that the path toward more libertarianism goes through the anarchists.

  8. OzarkHillbilly says:

    I blame Obama. A strong and forceful President would have nuked these bastards a long time ago.

  9. Entirely tangental to the point, the scale on that chart seems odd. What exactly does it mean to have negative confidence in the economy?

  10. Gustopher says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I believe it was Nick Gillespie who stated that Obama claims authority to kill American citizens, so the fact that he hasn’t gotten congress to agree is clearly his fault.

    Presumably for not having the congressional leaders killed, although Gillespie wasn’t quite clear on that point.

    But a strong leader, with the authority to kill his opponents, should have been able to resolve this.

  11. superdestroyer says:

    @Rob in CT:

    I also remember when the Democrats argued that uncertainty had no effect on the economy. If progressives are going to brag about how smart they are, the least the progressives can do is remember the arguments that were making a few months ago.

    It is really hard to argue that progressives really care about the economy when they keep saying that cut backs in healthcare, defense, energy, and manufacturing employment are a good sign because more people can be employment in education and social work for the same amount of money. Now all of the progressives how important it is to keep every overpaid budget analyst in DC emplyed.

  12. john personna says:

    @superdestroyer:

    You remember wrong. Many people and not just progressives argued that “uncertainty” was being made up out of whole cloth.

    The graph above is not whole cloth.

    Go away troll.

  13. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @superdestroyer:

    I also remember when the Democrats argued that uncertainty had no effect on the economy.

    Not me. I argued that uncertainty arguments are stupid on the face of them. For starters, there is always uncertainty in markets, that is why you have winners and losers.

    2ndly, Say you say, “Calling for an increase in taxes introduces uncertainty into the economy because business’ don’t know what there taxes will be.”

    I reply, “OK, let’s remove the uncertainty by raising their taxes and then they will know what their taxes will be. Uncertainty problem solved.”

  14. David M says:

    @john personna:

    I’m fairly sure “uncertainty” for the GOP now means “laws or regulations I don’t like” to the GOP, similar to how the “deficit” means “unspecified spending I don’t like” to the GOP.

  15. al-Ameda says:

    @superdestroyer:

    I also remember when the Democrats argued that uncertainty had no effect on the economy. If progressives are going to brag about how smart they are, the least the progressives can do is remember the arguments that were making a few months ago.

    Of course, in the alternate reality, where polling failed to show that Mitt Romney was going to be elected, you’re free to remember it that way, however, in the fact-based world that is not how reality-based people remember. The last go round you guys caused the market to dive, and you leveraged the whole thing into a downgrade in the rating of American debt.

    We’ve been here before and we expect the worst from Republicans.

  16. Tillman says:

    I can see the credit downgrades from Fitch’s and Moody’s now.

    Like S&P, they’ll blame politicak deadlock explicitly caused by Republicans.

  17. The calendar quarter after the last government “shutdown” the economy actually grew at an annual rate of 7.1 percent, after keeping up at rates during the “shutdown” that would make Obama blush, assuming it were possible for him to do so. Last I look, millions of people were actually putting their dollars into private sector alternatives (e.g., Mount Vernon and Colonial Williamsburg in the DC area) as opposed to using “free” federal services. Most federal government employees are going on vacation spending sprees. Seldom do these attitude surveys translate into economic outcomes — and they won’t now. Essentially everyone who posts on this blog is an economic ignoramus.

  18. anjin-san says:

    @ Let’s Be Free

    Most federal government employees are going on vacation spending sprees.

    Well, sure. That’s the natural reaction people have when they don’t know when they are going to see another paycheck. I am sure they are all on the beach in Hawaii by now.

  19. @Let’s Be Free: Well, the mid-1990s were a pretty good period for the economy. That the economy grew is a result of the shutdown.

    And in regards to your “vacation” comment: I know people affected by the shutdown–they are not going on spending sprees, they are worrying about how to manage their household budgets in the absence of a their paychecks.