Third Quarter GDP Revised Upwards

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised its advance estimate for third quarter GDP up from 1.6% to 2.2%. This is good news, but it still points to a slowing economy.

FILED UNDER: Economics and Business,
Steve Verdon
About Steve Verdon
Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research. He joined the staff at OTB in November 2004.


  1. Just curious, but when is the last time a quarterly economic estimate wasn’t revised upwards? 2000?

  2. Steve Verdon says:

    Hmmm, I don’t know you might be correct. An institutional bias–good news is easier to take than bad?

  3. The economy is running at an annualized rate 17% above the average for the last 9 presidential terms (3.5 vs 3.0 average starting with Nixon’s first term). If we turn in a 1.7 or better in the fourth quarter, we will have an above average GDP for 2006. My suspicion is we will get that 1.7 or better. If we just get another quarter like this, we will end up at 3.15 GDP for the year. Get a quarter like second quarter and we end up with a 3.25 GDP for 2006. Get a block buster quarter like 1st quarter and we end up with a very strong 4.0 GDP.

    And as Charles notes, the trend has been for the numbers to go up as they review their work.