Two Stunning Graphs about the State of the 2016 Campaign

Via WaPoThe brutal numbers behind a very bad month for Donald Trump


Could Trump really believe that he can run a national campaign on rallies and free media via the news?

And lest anyone think it is working, see the full piece which shows Trump’s current poll status in historical context.  Also note this:

The margin by which he trails Hillary Clinton now mirrors McCain’s deficit to Barack Obama in 2008. McCain rebounded after the Republican convention — but it’s important to remember that we’re comparing Trump to the worst Republican performance in a general election since 1996.

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. James Pearce says:

    Gifted amateur stuff, emphasis on the “amateur.”

  2. goethean says:

    A better comparison would be to a Ron Paul or Ralph Nader campaign.

  3. An Interested Party says:

    I’ve been wondering how anyone could have thought that this joke of a “candidate” could ever beat Hillary in November…we’ve already seen that whenever he opens his mouth, his unfavorability ratings shot up, now we see that he has no clue how to run a political campaign…people talk about how they don’t want career politicians and how they want change but does that mean they want rank amateurs running the government? It bears repeating that despite whatever sludge has been thrown their way, the Clintons and Obama have been extremely lucky in having such low caliber political opponents…

  4. Hal_10000 says:

    Well, I’ll say this for Trump: at least he’s getting the money out of politics.

  5. MarkedMan says:

    This just beggars the imagination. As impossible as it seems, I have to wonder if he’ll actually get the nomination…

  6. Nikki says:

    @An Interested Party:
    “It bears repeating that despite whatever sludge has been thrown their way, the Clintons and Obama have been extremely lucky in having such low caliber political opponents.”

    They’ve been lucky that the GOP hasn’t produced a quality candidate since GHW Bush. G W Bush got lucky in that he had an accommodating SCOTUS and a terrorist attack to get him into and keep him in the White House.

  7. Laura Koerber says:

    Oddly Trump is buying phone ads in Washington state. I have no idea why. I don’ think they will be very effective. Its just his voice, which has a grating quality to it, yelling something about greatness, no greeting,no introduction, just right straight to the ranting.

  8. rodney dill says:

    Trump is only about one thing, himself… and his big mouth.
    Trump is only about two things, himself, and his big mouth… and his giant ego…
    Trump is only about three things, himself, his big mouth, and his giant ego… and his orange hair.
    Wait a minute… let me come in again.

  9. Ben Wolf says:

    Trump is not like any past candidate. Such historical analogies are more useless than not.

  10. @Ben Wolf: Actually, that is what we are going to see, whether that hypothesis is true or not.

    The current (yes, early) polling indicate that he is less unique than you are suggesting, but again, we shall see.

    If he continues on this funding path, he will be performing an experiment of sorts, to be sure.