Voters Don’t Want Biden or Trump to Run in 2024
Americans want some new choices.
Quinnipiac University Poll (“Lowest Opinion Of Trump Among Voters In Seven Years, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Biden Approval Rating Climbs“):
As former President Donald Trump seeks to return to the Oval Office, 31 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, the lowest favorability rating he’s received among registered voters since July 2015, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today.
Among Republican voters, 70 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 20 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. This is the lowest favorability rating among Republican voters in a Quinnipiac University poll since March 2016.
Among independent voters, 25 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 62 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. This is his lowest favorability rating among independent voters since Quinnipiac University first asked this question of registered voters in May 2015.
Seven in 10 registered voters (70 percent) say they would not like to see Donald Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee for president, while 25 percent say they would like to see him as the nominee. Among Republican voters, 56 percent say they would like to see Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee for president, while 38 percent say they would not like to see him as the nominee. The Quinnipiac University Poll does not have a trend for this question.
So, a mixed bag, really. On the one hand, with 59 percent disapproval among registered voters, one would think he’s unelectable. That’s good! On the other, with 70 percent approval among Republicans, he’s got a really good shot at being the party’s nominee—and thus one of only two people who have any chance at all of being President come noon on 20 January 2025. Granted, only 56 percent would like to see him as the nominee. Alas, at this early stage at least, I doubt anyone else is anywhere close to that.
Slightly more than half of registered voters (51 percent) say Trump should be disqualified from running for president again after he called to terminate the Constitution so that he can be reinstated as president, while 40 percent say he should not be disqualified.
I think he should be disqualified, and preferably imprisoned, for his role in inciting the Capitol riots and attempts to steal the 2020 election. I do not, however, think he should be disqualified for a stupid tweet. Voters should, of course, take his erratic state of mind into account.
Registered voters give President Joe Biden a negative 43 – 49 percent job approval rating. This compares to a negative 36 – 55 percent job approval rating in a Quinnipiac University poll on November 22, 2022. Today’s numbers are his highest marks among registered voters since September 2021.
Among adults, Biden receives a negative 40 – 50 percent job approval rating. This compares to a negative 36 – 54 percent job approval rating on November 22, 2022. Today’s numbers are his highest marks among adults since August of this year.
Registered voters were asked about Biden’s handling of…
- the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 45 percent approve, while 46 percent disapprove;
- climate change: 41 percent approve, while 44 percent disapprove;
- foreign policy: 39 percent approve, while 52 percent disapprove;
- the economy: 39 percent approve, while 56 percent disapprove.
While Biden’s handling of the economy is underwater, it’s an improvement from a Quinnipiac University poll on November 22, 2022 when it was a negative 33 – 63 percent.
While I’ve been critical of Biden here and there, the breakdown numbers are just baffling to me. Aside from the occasional verbal miscue, he’s been just about flawless on Ukraine and, with a quibble here and there, a huge improvement over his predecessor on foreign policy. I honestly don’t know what it is that he is supposed to do about climate with rock-solid Republican opposition in the Senate. The economy, well, it is what it is and we blame Presidents for the state of affairs regardless of their policies.
As President Biden considers seeking reelection, 43 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. His lowest score in a Quinnipiac University poll was in July 2022 when voters gave him a negative 37 – 57 percent favorability rating.
Among Democratic voters, 85 percent have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 8 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
His numbers among the general electorate aren’t what one might wish for but on par with others who went on to be re-elected. And his numbers with Democrats are way higher than I’d have predicted. The early frustrations with his inability to get bills through the Senate have clearly subsided after late successes in brokering deals with Joe Manchin. And, presumably, the better-than-expected midterm results bolstered his standing.
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters (64 percent) say they would not like to see Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee for president, while 27 percent say they would like to see him as the nominee. Among Democratic voters, 48 percent say they would like to see Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee for president, while 43 percent say they would not like to see him as the nominee. The Quinnipiac University Poll does not have a trend for this question.
The problem for Biden remains what it was during the 2020 campaign: he’s old and, barring tragedy, is getting older. He just hit his 80th birthday and will be just days shy of 82 on Election Day. He would be 86 at the end of a second term, which is just insanely old. Indeed, most people born in 1942 are already dead.
Of course, Trump is just under four years younger and is demonstrating rather clear signs of mental deterioration. So, if it’s a choice between Biden and Trump, the age issue should negate itself. Were Republicans to nominate a reasonably sane candidate not yet eligible for Social Security, though, they’ll have a leg up with Independents.
We are also a political eternity away from the 2024 primaries so there’s that too. The US electorate is nothing if not fickle.
It’s not so much “disqualified for a tweet” as it is “sends up very dangerous trial balloons in an attempt to normalize concepts like ‘the constitution is optional'”
Doubtful that you’ll find disagreement among the regular commentators.
But on the question at hand, it is time for other candidates. Biden in his own Biden-esque way has done an excellent job as president, but age is a question and one that can’t be countered.
Yes he’s been effective and even wise, but most of us who have reached retirement age have know someone who went from smart and vibrant to halting and confused in a period of months. Sometimes that can be tied to a specific ailment, but it also can simply be the body and mind aging. Recall how quickly and noticeably, Reagan’s mental capacities diminished following his reelection.
Over the last week the chattering class has been wondering where the trump campaign is and why isn’t it campaigning? The answer is likely, that his inner circle is keeping him under wraps due to deterioration of his mental condition. Look at recent photos and videos of his recent public appearances, frequently he’s gape mouthed with a vacant stare in his eyes. His off the cuff pronouncements have become so outlandish that they are nearly parodies. He can pull it together for certain occasions, like his presidential run announcement, but even then he was halting.
Yes, two new candidates.
Americans want some unicorns.
I didn’t want Biden to run in 20…but he’s done a damn good job.
I don’t want him to run in 24. Go home a have a well deserved retirement.
I do want Trump to run. He’s a natural born loser. If he runs it guarantees a Democrat in the White House.
In general, the public always wants new options, preferably better ones.
You know what I’m reminded of a little? This from 2011:
You can’t beat something with nothing. That has never worked in politics, and never will.
* I believe this was the Ali Akbar, the guy who later changed his name to Ali Alexander and was one of the key players in the Jan. 6 insurrection. But I’m not 100% sure, as it’s a fairly generic name. Just not a name you often see in American right-wing circles.
@Sleeping Dog: Speculating on the mental state of the opposition’s candidate – or the general health – is a bad idea all-around. Biden’s stuttering and limited appearances had Republicans painting him as a deteriorating buffoon during 2020, but it’s obvious that he’s anything but (so far). Reagan definitely was mentally out of it late in his presidency, but that kind of thing is hard to distinguish from, say, a person who has simply been worn down by the post. It takes direct observation of small behaviors and patterns to make that assessment, not some broad-brush strokes about “vacant stares” (Trump had plenty of those 6 years ago too) and incomprehensible blather (his entire presidency was full of that!)
My suspicion on Trump’s lack of overt campaigning is that he knows he can collect a lot more in lump-sum appearances than with a continual barrage of them. The luster and overall popularity are fading, so he needs to appear as shiny and new as possible every time he shows up in public.
Right now, Trump 2024 is a grift, just like Trump 2016 was, and just like Trump 45 and Trump 2020 were from 2017-2019 (by 2020 those both became “real” in the sense that I think he started thinking how f’ed he might be if he lost the presidency). Even if he wins the R nomination, I suspect he considers the presidency a long shot, more of a vector for wiring cash into his bank account or propping up one of his many ongoing international business failures.
As for Biden, there was always the thought in 2020 that maybe he would be the caretaker, the bridge between 2020 and 2024 who was safe enough to get the W but wouldn’t really rock the boat and might set up the 2024 candidate with the VP slot. At this point, though, nobody stands out as the national candidate of choice to replace Biden in the next cycle, so unless Biden’s health actually deteriorates, he seems likely to be the Democratic nominee.
You know, I’m kinda glad that Iowa is no longer the kickoff state. It was a burden and came with a high time price.
And not just for the evening that is the caucus but the months that lead up to it. Weighing and deciding on potential policy emphasis.
Iirc, the new lead off is South Carolina. South Carolina, you have my deepest empathy and sympathy. The process will suck and you will hate it. Every political mother fucker in America will buzz bomb your state. You will see so many political ads you will want to puke if you see another by July 1. Every local TV ad will be an advocacy ad or a negative against another person ad.
You will become a master at hitting the mute button. You will excel at changing the channel as quickly as possible.
You will be awash in the most political advertising you have ever seen and all of it will make your skin crawl. It is nigh intolerable. It is absolutely insufferable. The entire apparatus of the party and individual candidates will be focused on you and getting your vote. It will be intensely annoying. You will feel pressure to vote in the best interest of the country.
And then after it happens it will only matter that the top three, maybe four, advance on to the next state. Who wins or comes in second or third doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the people who came in fourth or lower get instantly knocked out of the race. That is your purpose – to winnow the field. That is your sole purpose. Maybe, possibly, to prematurely anoint a potential front-runner.
The political media will fuss and bother about who and how and why for two days and then immediately move on to whatever state is the new New Hampshire. Nevada, I think.
You will be left with the impression that you left the bar with the wrong person and that person did not even have the decency to flush the condom before bolting into the night never to call you again.. Political operatives will spend months trying to seduce you with their wily wares and abandon you on a dime come election night. They are already on a flight to whatever the new second winnowing state is. I want to say it’s Nevada. Whatever state it is, that state will be the next belle of the ball for exactly one week.
There is a burden to being first in the nation. You feel obligated to hear all of the candidates out and listen to their pitch and read their position papers. The best equivalent I have is that you are akin to a juror sworn to uphold standards and to pick wisely.
In the last caucus I went in mentally torn between Buttigieg and Warren. At the last second I caucused for Warren. Eventually Buttigieg won by quite a lot in my precinct, Warren was second. I think Biden came in third. Maybe. I did not pay attention because I had slotted him into the yesterday’s news pile and not worth paying attention to.
Buttigieg won my precinct fairly easily and I got to go home at like 8:45 which is pretty damn early.
I do not regret my vote at all. It was very carefully considered. I do not regret the outcome – it was the will of the people, my neighbors.
I’d spent months thinking it through and pondering multiple what-ifs and my choice, my vote.
As first to vote it is incredibly annoying. The only folks who enjoy it are the local TV and radio stations that are inundated by folks dying to buy airtime. Them, and local political operatives. Everybody else, normal citizens, basically get boned.
It is very interesting to watch and observe how it plays out. You get actual retail local politicking and advocacy up the wazoo. Doesn’t amount to scratch, but you get it.
My due diligence was trumped by the fact that the vote in Iowa was basically to winnow the field. That’s it. Kinda doesn’t matter who wins – it is who moves forward. Our purpose was to winnow the field. In some instances establish a maybe front-runner.
Still, no regrets and I am extremely grateful to have participated. It was an honor to caucus for my preferred candidate. I hope we did a diligent job in previous elections.
The folks who own big shares in SC media companies will make out like bandits – guaranteed!
@Steven L. Taylor:
Oh, for sure. But I think the desire for Trump and Biden not to be the options in 2024 is different. They’re not just bland candidates but problematic ones, if for quite different reasons. Trump is crazy and dangerous. Biden is beyond geriatric.
Definitely the same guy. I met him at CPAC way back when.
Whelp, you just triggered a whole bunch of people who hate-read this site James.
@James Joyner: He was on Alex Jones during the recent Kanye appearance. He was one of the voices of reason, explaining to Kanye that, while he did agree there was a Jewish mafia, that didn’t mean we should be saying positive things about Hitler.
It’s my guess that what’s going on with Biden is similar to something that happened to Obama in his first term. There are a fraction of voters who say they “disapprove” of his handling of the Ukraine invasion because they want the US to do more. That seems ill-advised to me, and to you, but they want it. They get lumped into “disapprove” along with the Tucker Carlson types who think Putin is sent from God to scourge gay people, like the Ukranian Army.
But only one of these groups will vote against Biden, not both.
@ptfe: When Biden ran in 2020 my family objected strongly to him and when I asked why it all boiled down to his gender, his age, the color of his skin, and his sexual orientation. You know, the things liberals have worked for decades to make protected categories, things that should not be taken into account when someone applies for a job.
@Jay L Gischer: Throughout 2020, one talking point I kept hearing from Republicans was that there were polls suggesting there was a lot more enthusiasm for Trump than there was for Biden. This was true. What they neglected to mention is that those same polls indicated there was a lot more enthusiasm against Trump than there was against Biden.
Polls of approval or favorability usually do not capture the level of intensity of people’s opinions of the person. Occasionally you see polls that distinguish between “moderately approve/disapprove” and “strongly approve/disapprove,” but these are relatively uncommon. Most of the time it’s just a binary negative vs. positive. And I think one of Biden’s central and underappreciated characteristics is that he just doesn’t inspire very strong feelings in most people, one way or the other. “Let’s go Brandon” is just formula at this point. Democrats are mostly inspired by their fear and loathing of Trump, which is very real–it isn’t formula. They didn’t feel the same way about Mitt Romney. They aren’t inspired to go to the polls to express their love for Joe, but they don’t need to.
I don’t disagree, but I also suspect that a huge part of this poll is just the standard response. People always want different choices.
I would be curious if these numbers are radically different from similar past polls.
@MarkedMan: Eh, this is the same argument used against most diversity programs.
Since the nomination process is historically underpinned by racism and sexism, Joe Biden is not dispelling the notion that it’s alive and well. Arguing that we shouldn’t consider race or sex because they’re protected classes is just another way of eliding centuries of structural racism and sexism that have almost always led to the old white guy being most likely to get the nod.
Get it into your heads, unwashed hoard of poll respondees. IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT YOU WANT. Boomers and silents are doing the voting, we’re picking the candidates, and we’re buying the process that elects who WE want in office. Gripe if you wish. It won’t do any good until we’re all dead–and then we’ll still keep voting from the grave with sophisticated voter fraud schemes. Get used to it!
@just nutha: And on to different rants:
“Among independent voters, 25 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump,” and the crazification factor strikes again, this time revealing that indies can be just a crazy as anyone else (allowing for the margin of error).
“Among adults…” is Quinnipiaq polling children, too, or is this a reflection that 18-20’s are not adults yet–being able (in my state anyway) to buy tobacco but not alcohol or weed?
One of the thoughts that came to my mind about the environment is that people can disapprove of Biden in both directions–not doing enough AND doing too much.
It’s interesting that Quinnipiac included the tweet as a qualifier on the disqualified from running question. I, too, don’t see how demonstrating that he has no understanding of the Constitution makes a disqualification on it’s own. It would be interesting to find out if 51% of those polled also think that being willing to vote for Trump should disqualify one from voting.
@just nutha: Polling jargon. ‘Adults’ are respondents over the age of 18. ‘Registered voters’ is self-explanatory. The best polls—but sometimes also the worst—are of ‘likely voters’—registered voters who, based on the screen applied by the pollster, will probably actually vote. Usually based on prior behavior.
In August 2015 I knew Trump would win the nomination. I said so and had some decent theories as to why.
All y’all booed me down and derided me. It’s going to be JEB! Or maybe Cruz. Or maybe Rubio. Most definitely it will not be Trump!
I was also wrong in the very same post. I predicted that it would be Trump and he would get stomped Goldwater style. No way that idiot buffoon could possibly win, right? We are not that crazy.
I was half right.
I was way, way off in the run up to 2020. I never even thought of Biden as being in the mix. In my head, no chance, a decent cat, but def yesterday’s news. Not gonna happen.
I was clearly wrong. My grasp of the zeitgeist is not as sure as I had hoped or imagined.
In retrospect I can see it. D voters did not want a firebrand, they wanted a steady hand. And Biden is a steady hand. Did not predict that at all. He barely made my top five most likelies. I underestimated his appeal by a shit ton.
In late 2022 I am enjoying the Biden presidency. It is calm. He projects boring stability. Procedures will be followed assiduously. I’s will be dotted. Boundaries are respected.
I don’t have to flick on CNN every morning to see if we are now at war with, I don’t know, Burkina Faso or Ireland or China because Trump had a wild Twitter night last night.
A steady, chill presidency is very cool and I very much like and enjoy institutional stability. I sleep better. Things are calm and predictable. I like calm and predictable.
2024? Not a clue. Likely DeSantis for R, D – not a fucking clue. Biden has given positive indicators he is running. If not Joe, who?