Israel Winning War of Attrition?
Once the unit exhausts the missiles currently in its possession, it will, MI believes, have difficulty acquiring more, since most of the roads and supply routes have been destroyed by the IDF. Several Syrian and Iranian attempts to send supplies to Hizbullah have been thwarted by the IDF.
Morrissey is thrilled by this news:
This shows why asymmetrical warfare cannot beat a true military response. Terrorists thrive on the reluctance of Western nations to actually respond militarily to their attacks. Tactics and strategy that force responses in civilian areas usually lead to law-enforcement tactics in order for nations to avoid the kind of televised images we have seen from Lebanon. In that kind of low-level approach, however, the terrorists can resupply at will and continue with intermittent attacks — and know that they will get away with them.
Hezbollah got surprised by Israel’s military response and by the lack of support they received in the Arab world as a result. IDF operations have forced Hezbollah to fire many more rockets into Israel, trying desperately to hold Israeli cities hostage in order to put an end to the IDF invasion of southern Lebanon and the bombing of the infrastructure. They have fired thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel in less than two weeks, a number that might have taken them five years to reach in the normal asymmetrical mode.
I would note that Israel tried had dozens of “true military responses” over the last several decades without managing to destroy Hezbollah, Hamas, the PLO,the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, and others. I would note, too, that the reason Hezbollah is running low on rockets–presuming they are in fact running low on rockets and this is not just wishful thinking on the part of Israeli intelligence–is because they have been expended on Israel’s cities. While rope-a-dope worked for Muhammad Ali against George Foreman, it is not necessarily an ideal strategy for counter-terrorism.
Ralph Peters thinks the Israelis are losing:
ISRAEL is losing this war. For a lifelong Israel supporter, that’s a painful thing to write. But it’s true. And the situation’s worsening each day. A U.S. government official put it to me this way: “Israel’s got the clock, but Hezbollah’s got the time.” The sands of the hourglass favor the terrorists – every day they hold out and drop more rockets on Israel, Hezbollah scores a propaganda win. All Hezbollah has to do to achieve victory is not to lose completely. But for Israel to emerge the acknowledged winner, it has to shatter Hezbollah. Yet Israeli miscalculations have left Hezbollah alive and kicking.
Peters wrote that in a column published Saturday. Since then, Israel has in fact undertaken a ground invasion of Lebanon, which Peters thinks they should have done on Day 1. Still, most of the reasons he thought Israel was losing still obtain. Further, Rowan Scarborough reports that, “Israel is overstating the damage its air war has inflicted on the Hezbollah militia, which hides its weapons in tunnels and civilian neighborhoods throughout Lebanon, Bush administration and intelligence officials said [Friday].” Billmon points to numerous other indicators that things are going far from swimmingly for the IDF.