Keep an Eye on Romney

Taegan Goddard believes we should keep an eye on Mitt Romney:

Though he consistently comes in third or fourth in most national polls, Mitt Romney is now leading his Republican rivals in the first three states to vote in 2008: Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Romney is also expected to lead the GOP candidates in fundraising for the second quarter.

Ed Morrissey and I discussed Romney’s campaign quite a bit on my BlogTalkRadio show Monday and we both find it truly remarkable that he has managed to put together such a strong organization and fundraising base despite having so little public support. It’s hard for me to fathom Romney winning the nomination but he’s got the behind-the-scenes part down. And Iowa and New Hampshire can be won on sheer organization.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Public Opinion Polls, ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. soccer dad says:

    we both find it truly remarkable that he has managed to put together such a strong organization and fund raising base despite having so little public support.

    I think you’re putting it backwards. Right now polls mean nothing. It’s the organization and money that matter. In March 2003 the two Democrats leading the polls were Hillary and Lieberman; the money guys were Kerry and Edwards.

    There’s not a lot to go on, but in 1999 and leading up to the Republican primary in 1995 it was the money leaders who ended up getting the nomination. My suspicion is either that the fund raising is an indication of organizational strength, or that it represents a sampling of support that presages the eventual support that the candidate will get.

  2. James Joyner says:

    Right now polls mean nothing. It’s the organization and money that matter. In March 2003 the two Democrats leading the polls were Hillary and Lieberman; the money guys were Kerry and Edwards.

    In 2000, Phil Gramm dominated early fundraising and tanked. He was my guy, too.

    As I recall, Kerry had to mortgage the family manse to continue his campaign. He obviously made quite a rebound afterwards.

  3. soccer dad says:

    In March of 1999 Bush led the Republicans in fundraising based on his first FEC filing.
    (Gramm was 1996 wasn’t he?)
    From newspaper clippings Dole was the #1 GOP fundraiser in March 1995.
    I realize it’s only 3 election cycles, but each time the non-incumbents with the most cash according the first filing eventually won the primary.
    Since Hillary’s lead over Barack is very slight, I’m somewhat unsure of her advantage. I still think that both will be at the top of the Democratic ticket in some order.

  4. Matt-A says:

    Don’t forget, Romney leads in Michigan, and they are going to move up the primary to the 29th – thats the same day as Florida and before South Carolina.

    Also, is there anyone with Wyoming polling data?