Models Trending Bidenward
A look at several models.
The 2020 election models have all been favorable to Joe Biden from the beginning. They are starting to look even more so.
For example, 538’s forecast has moved Biden’s odds to 80% for the first time since the model launched:
Indeed, the trend has been steadily Bidenward for the last month:
Keeping in mind that it can still rain, and rain hard, when the forecast says there is only a 20% chance.
Likewise, and perhaps more dramatically, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball now has Biden with 279 electoral votes when combining Safe D, Likely D, and Leans D states:
The Economist’s model is likewise bullish for Biden:
For those wishing for a trip down memory lane for comparison, here is 528’s final model in 2016:
Note: the popular vote prediction was pretty close.
From the FEC:
Federal Elections 2016
|Candidate (Party Label)||Popular Vote Total||Percent of Popular Vote|
|Hillary Clinton (Democrat, Women’s Equality, Working Families)||65,853,514||48.18%|
|Donald J. Trump (Republican, American Independent, Conservative)||62,984,828||46.09%|
|Gary Johnson (Libertarian, Independence, Independent)||4,489,341||3.28%|
|Jill Stein (Green, Mountain, Progressive, Independent)||1,457,218||1.07%|
|Evan McMullin (Better for America, Independence, Independent)||731,991||0.54%|
(There are an additional 28 entries that account for another .84% of the vote).
Also, note the fluctuations and compare to 2020 above: