Nate Silver Forecasts 6-7 Senate Seat Pick Up For GOP

Nate Silver is still settling in to his new home at the New York Times, but he’s already out with a forecast that is going to cause Democrats to quake in their boots:

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska. On average, over the model’s 100,000 simulation runs, the Democrats are projected to lose a net of six and a half Senate seats, which would leave them with 52 or 53 senators. (Even though the G.O.P. primary in Alaska remains too close to call, that outcome is unlikely to alter the model.)

More at the link, of course.

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Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Herb says:

    Oh, it’s gonna be a slaughter!!!!

  2. PD Shaw says:

    Nate’s “Seventh” seat appears to be Nevada, providing evidence that Reid lost this seat, but the Republicans decided to make it interesting. The “Eighth” and “Ninth” seats are Illinois and Washington, which appear to be statistical ties using Nate’s projections.

  3. Brummagem Joe says:

    “In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats,”

    Does this mean there’s an 89% chance they won’t lose nine seats?