Does Campaign Money Matter?

How much is enough?

Making Sense of the Election

Parsing the results thus far.

Midterm Polls Shifting Republican

The race is returning to expectation.

Dems in Midterms: You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

A 2020 blowout has long been presumed. But maybe it won’t happen.

Canada and Single-Seat Plurality Elections

Canada has more parties than the US, but still suffers representation problems due to FPTP elections.

Public Perceives Biden Legitimately Winning

Some good news for our democracy.

Where the Presidential Race Stands

Why it’s all over but the crying.

Supreme Executive Power Derives from a Mandate from the Masses

Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!

Is the Race Narrowing?

Trump has pulled ahead in some individual polls but Biden continues to have a commanding lead.

Could Trump Shock the World Again?

Fear of a reprise of 2016 is still with us.

Doug Jones’ Personal Appeal

Alabama’s junior Senator needs my help.

President Donald J. Trump boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md. Friday, July 10, 2020, en route to Miami International Airport in Miami President Donald J. Trump boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md. Friday, July 10, 2020, en route to Miami International Airport in Miami

No, Trump Isn’t Above 50%

Let’s just say Rasmussen is an extreme outlier.

Five Weeks Out

Joe Biden’s chances remain extraordinarily good.

The Senate’s Rural Skew

Injecting data into the conversation.

Thinking About an EC/Popular Vote Inversion

Our screwy electoral system requires thinking about screwy scenarios.

A Note on 2016 Polling

Because sometimes a comment starts to become a post.

I Was Right All Along, Except When I Was Wrong

Looking back at my predictions about the 2020 Democratic race.

Joementum Kills Brokered Convention Dream

Nate Silver now gives Biden an 87% chance of winning the nomination outright.

Getting Over What Happened to Elizabeth Warren

Women didn’t vote for her either. But that doesn’t mean sexism didn’t play a role in her loss.

Nevada Caucuses Go as Expected

Media overreacts to the Sanders victory all the polls predicted.

Democratic Voters Not Exactly Enthusiastic About Mike Bloomberg

A new poll seems to indicate that Democratic voters aren’t exactly jumping on the Mike Bloomberg train.

Trump vs. Fox News Channel

Even when it comes from his favorite propaganda network, Donald Trump doesn’t like bad news.

Kamala Harris’s Momentum Slowing

Kamala Harris’s post-debate rise in the polls appears to be losing momentum as we head into the second debate.

Trump Attacks Another Minority Member Of Congress With Racist Tropes

The President unleashed another racist attack, this time on Maryland Congressman Elijah Cummings.

Senator Amy Klobuchar Enters Presidential Race

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar became the latest Democrat to enter the 2020 race on Sunday.

Kavanaugh Fight Having An Impact On The Midterms?

At least for the moment, the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court appears to be helping Republicans rally their base for November. The question is whether it will last after the fight is over.

Republican Wins Arizona Special Election, But Still Sends A Warning To The GOP

As expected, a Republican won the Special Election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, but it’s not a win Republicans should really be celebrating.

Republicans Face Health Care Blowback At Town Halls

Republicans are finding that their constituents aren’t very happy about the passage of the American Health Care Act.

Macron and Le Pen Advance To Runoff In French Presidential Election

French voters face a stark choice in the May 7th runoff for President. Hopefully, they’ll make the correct choice.

Jim Comey’s Dilemma

The FBI Director faced a damned if you do, damned if you don’t choice.

A Final Look At The Polls

With just one day to go, Clinton’s paths to victory continue to look far more realistic than Donald Trump’s.

Meh Hillary

It has become necessary to destroy the party in order to save it.

Polls, Polls, Polls.

Looking beyond FiveThirtyEight

Electoral College Wargames And Paths To Victory

A look at the Electoral College shows that It is far more likely that Hillary Clinton will win the election than that Donald Trump will.

With One Week To Go, The Presidential Race Tightens But Clinton Still Has The Advantage

Seven days from now, millions of Americans will be headed to the polls. So far at least, Hillary Clinton is still the front runner.

Some Poll Observations

Some musings on the RCP average and such.

It’s Two Weeks Until Election Day, And Things Are Looking Very Good For Hillary Clinton

Two weeks before Election Day, everything seems to be going Hillary Clinton’s way.

With Three Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Momentum Appears To Be Surging

With twenty-one days to go until Election Day, things are looking very good for Hillary Clinton.

Second Debate Unlikely To Halt Clinton’s Momentum

Last night’s debate was indeed the low point everyone anticipated it would be, but it seems unlikely to change the status quo.

Clinton Keeps Pulling Ahead Heading Into Second Presidential Debate

As we head into the second Presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looks to be in very good shape.

With Five Weeks To Go, Clinton Appears To Have Momentum

With five weeks to go, the momentum in the race is moving decidedly in Hillary Clinton’s favor.

Democratic Hopes Of Winning Back The Senate Seem To Be Slipping Away

Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate aren’t going so well at the moment.

Presidential Race Remains Tight Heading Into First Debate

With just hours before the first debate, and six weeks until Election Day, the race for President remains tight.

Presidential Race Continues To Tighten With Seven Weeks To Go

With just forty-nine days left in the campaign, and less than a week before the first debate, the race for President is tighter than ever.

With Eight Weeks To Go, A Tighter Race But It’s Still Advantage Clinton

The election is now fifty-six days away and, while the race is tighter than it has been, it’s still one in which Hillary Clinton has seemingly all the advantages.

With Nine Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Post-Convention Bounce Seems To Have Disappeared

It’s the traditional start of the campaign season, and the race for President is getting close, at least at the national level.

Ten Weeks Out: The Presidential Race Tightens A Bit, But Clinton Still Leads

With ten weeks to go ,there’s been some tightening in the polls but Hillary Clinton continues to maintain a commanding lead in the race for the White House.

Wisconsin Unlikely To Go Republican In 2016

Republican hopes that Wisconsin might go Republican this year seem to be slipping away.