Obama’s Convention Bounce
The polls completed over the weekend vary wildly but Barack Obama is averaging a lead of 4.5 points over John McCain:
Given that I predicted, before the Democratic Convention got underway, that Obama would get a bounce of “between four and five points,” I’m not terribly surprised.
I would have predicted a similar bounce for the Republicans coming out of their convention but, given that Hurricane Gustav (now a tropical storm) wreaked havok with the opening day and that the surprise announcement of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate, I haven’t the foggiest how it’s going to play out. This is going to be a convention unlike any we’ve seen in recent decades and I don’t know whether that’s good, bad, or indifferent for McCain.
What’s more important than the national head-to-head polls, of course, is the state-by-state polling. We don’t yet have a clear picture of where we are there. ElectoralVote.com has it at Obama 278 and McCain 247 with Virginia’s 13 Electors too close to call. RealClearPolitics, though, has Obama at 273 and McCain at 265, only a one-state switch versus the pre-convention polls. By this date in 2004, incidentally, Bush had finally moved ahead of Kerry in the EV.com estimates. Granted, the conventions weren’t this late that cycle.
McCain and Palin need to give solid speeches with the convention spotlight on in order to get this thing swinging their way. Otherwise, this race will remain Obama’s to lose.