Predicting the Nominees 2008 (Updated)
Over the next couple of days the various associate bloggers here at Outside the Beltway will be weighing in with their best guesses on who the Democratic and Republican nominees for the presidency will be in 2008. It looks like I’m first in line. As the physicist Niels Bohr said, prediction is difficult especially about the future. And, yes, I know that Yogi Berra said it, too. He said it later.
I think that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.
That really looked like a sure thing as recently as a few weeks ago but recent developments have thrown a bit of sand into my oily machine. Barack Obama is looking pretty good in Iowa as is Mike Huckabee. I don’t think that either will cross the finish line.
Hillary Clinton has the money, the organization on the ground, the determination to win, and, most of all, I think she has and will maintain the support of regular Democratic leaders. She continues to top the national polls without an appreciable downwards trend. Early indications suggest that Oprah Winfrey’s hard press for Obama hasn’t garnered him a lot of additional support.
All of that having been said it’s still possible for any of the top-tier Democratic candidates to win in Iowa, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can apparently win in New Hampshire, and it’s still not a metaphysical certitude who’ll win the Democratic nomination. But I think the smart money should still be behind Hillary Clinton.
On the Republican side, I think that Mike Huckabee will probably win the Iowa Republican caucus and that Romney will probably win the New Hampshire Republican primary. I also think that, following a Huckabee win in Iowa, regular Republican leaders will begin to coalesce around some one candidate who isn’t Mike Huckabee (for reasons nicely described by Rick Moran). My guess is that candidate will be Mitt Romney. I don’t think that’s their smart move but I think it’s their likely move.
So, that’s how I’ve got it figured. Ironically, I don’t think that either Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney are their respective party’s best candidates for the general election. I think those are John Edwards and John McCain, respectively. I’ve thought that way for a long time but I noted that some support for that emerged recently.
InTrade says that it’s Hillary Clinton for the Dems, Giuliani for the Reps, Clinton much more certain than Giuliani. Giuliani’s a possible but I still have my doubts that the Republican leadership will flock to his side.
Yogi Berra’s bedtime reading was usually the latest research in quantum mechanics.
Yogi’s a pretty smart guy. I went to high school with his nephews and met his brother a couple of times. They’re all bright.
Yogi said something else that has a more direct bearing on this subject, and this discussion in particular: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
I agree with you regarding Huckabee who I predict will crash and burn in no more than two weeks once his past catches up with him. But I think this will have the effect of alienating voters from “religious” candidates altogether which will include Mitt. That will leave Fred Thompson.
As for the Democrats, I hope it’s going to be Hillary but I am not so sure. She is losing momentum, Barak is gaining it, and after the dust settles, it will probably be Edwards who is left standing.
It’s funny you should mention Edwards, Patrick, because I think there’s an outside possibility that, due to the byzantine rules of the Democratic Iowa caucus, that Edwards could emerge as victor as everybody’s second favorite.
THIS GUY NEVER TAKES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYTHING…MOVE ON! VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE! http://www.obamatruth.org/
“Barack Obama continues his hard-edged, negative campaign – against his own staff. Passing blame down to anonymous staff ranks has become something of a tic for Obama. Obama pointed the finger at unidentified campaign schedulers when he had to address a New Hampshire firefighters union by telephone, instead of meeting with them in person. Obama told the gathering. “My staff had scheduled things and “theyâ€ couldn’t wiggle out if it. And after media attention turned to the “Hillary Clinton Obama’s campaign was producing bogus research memos/statements about Clinton’s such as lies about having ties to the Indian-American community, Obama called the “unnecessarily caustic” document a “dumb mistake on our campaign’s part” HE STARTED THE LIES AND NEGATIVE POLITICS…A former cocaine junkie and muslim. WE DO NOT WANT THIS GUY LEADING OUR GREAT COUNTRY; MAYBE LEAD HARPO PRODUCTIONS, SINCE HES OPRAHS DREAM…