Putting Those 2012 Polls In Perspective

MSNBC’s Carrie Dunn points out that the Presidential polls in 2006 didn’t tell us much about 2008:

Before you start filling out your GOP candidate brackets, it’s worth remembering the heady days of winter 2006, when Democrats had thundered to victory in the midterms and pundits were frenetically handicapping the upcoming contests in the race to replace President George W. Bush.

It’s safe to say the chatter in the weeks after that election was often short of terrifically informative.

In mid-November 2006, pollsters found that New York mayor Rudy Giuliani would run away with the Republican presidential nomination – especially if the second most popular GOP choice, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, decided to pass on a run.

Few polls even included the eventual winner of the Iowa caucuses, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. And in at least seven surveys that month, Mitt Romney’s support languished in single digits, behind a man who eventually passed on a run — Newt Gingrich.

On the Democratic side, a flurry of surveys in November 2006 showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by double digits. Also winning a substantial chunk of support was former Vice President Al Gore.

Huckabee didn’t start moving in the polls until December 2007, and Obama didn’t start over-taking Clinton until early 2008. As for Rudy Giuliani, he spent $ 59  million, dropped out after the Florida Primary, and won a single delegate.

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Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.