Random Observations on Trump’s Election

Trying to make sense of that which makes no sense.

donald-trump-hat

I went to bed shortly after John Podesta told Clinton supporters to go to bed because there would be no further announcements until morning. Half an hour later, Clinton conceded the election. I woke up three hours later and got ready for work and then proceded to teach a seminar on, ironically enough, totalitarianism.  I haven’t had much time to read or otherwise absorb election post-mortems but below is a first attempt at my own.

Like Steven Taylor, I’ve been wrong about this election from the outset, considering it inconceivable that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, much less defeat Hillary Clinton in a modestly good climate for Democrats. In the first instance, I explained away the polls; in the latter, I placed too much confidence in them. Regardless, while my skills as a prognosticator have been abysmal this cycle, I don’t think I’ve missed the underlying trends that paved the way for Trump.

A wave election.  I fully expected that all or almost all of the close states to go in the same direction. This very much felt like a referendum on the future of the country rather than 50 state elections. I was right. I Just thought the wave would be blue, not red.  Like most “experts,” I vastly overestimated the degree to which Trump’s boorishness would, no pun intended, Trump the visceral salience of his message.

Hillary Clinton was simply an awful candidate.  She’s incredibly bright, disciplined, and experienced. But she’s a lousy public speaker who has difficulty inspiring enthusiasm among even the Democratic nominating electorate. We saw that in 2008, when a neophyte with tremendous oratorical and empathy skills took the nomination from her despite it being essentially foreordained that it was hers. We saw it in the 2012 primaries, during which she ran essentially unopposed and yet was given a serious run for her money by a cranky backbencher with poor grooming habits. We saw it in the lcrowds for her campaign appearances. Even in the debates, all of which she won handily on the substance, she simply couldn’t gain much traction with swing voters.

And that’s to say nothing of the air of scandal that has long surrounded her. Her supporters totally dismiss this phenomenon as a longstanding Republican witch hunt and point out time and again that, despite oodles of investigations, no criminal charges have been filed. But that’s not the bar to which presidents should aspire.  The deep-seated sense that she is corrupt, while vague and visceral rather than provable, was a major factor against her.

To be sure, Trump is orders of magnitude worse on the corruption scale. But Americans seem to view that as baked into the business world and therefore legitimate in a way that it isn’t in high political office. Trump’s bold assertions that his manipulating the system just proves how smart and clever he is struck many people, especially those otherwise inclined toward his message, as plausible.

Elites overplayed their hand on racism, sexism, and nativism.  To be clear, in this context, I’m one of the elites.  Despite being a lifelong Republican, I condemned Trump almost from the outset for his outlandish rhetoric on Mexican and Muslim immigrants and found his casual misogyny disqualifying.  There’s simply no denying that this rhetoric energized some of the worst elements of our desirables—deplorables, if you will. He got the enthusiastic endorsement of the KKK and something called the “alt-right” stormed to his cause on Twitter, targeting women, Jews, and people of color in particular.

Yet there is a deep-seated cultural phenomenon at work that is far more complicated than simple racism and sexism. And using that language to deligitimate them simply fuels a sense of displacement.

There is a sense among people who consider themselves “normal Americans” that their way of life is under threat. They’re mostly white, rural, Christian, and heterosexual. From an elite perspective–and, again, I include myself in that category for this purpose—these feelings are rather silly. White people have it pretty good! Men have it pretty good. The War on Christmas? Christmas is winning hands down.  Yet, it doesn’t feel that way in the trenches.

North Carolina.  The Tarheel State, once solidly Republican, went for Obama in 2008 and barely went to Romney in 2012.  The polling showed it strongly leaning in Clinton’s direction in 2016 and I saw no reason not to confidently expect her to win it. She, of course, lost.

One post-hoc explanation occurs to me as a strong factor: the hubbub over bathroom integration and the HB2 law. Now, on the one hand, the Republican governor who pushed the bill lost his re-election bid and HB2 was clearly a prominent part of that campaign. Still, I can’t imagine that there wasn’t strong resentment on the part of North Carolinians over the outside reaction to the law.  The Obama Justice Department intervened. The NBA and other major business entities boycotted the state. Carolinians were called bigots for their passage of a law that is, objectively, motivated by bias against a group.  Yet, even a year ago, it likely never occurred to anyone not directly affected by the transgender issues that there was a need for discussion over which bathroom people with given sets of body parts would use.  This is but one small, and relatively silly, example of radical cultural change being imposed from on high rather than through persuasion.

The Rust Belt.  All of the votes haven’t been counted yet but it looks as though Trump will sweep Rust Belt states, some of which haven’t gone to a Republican in more than a generation. The visceral explanation encapsulated in Michael Moore’s “Big F-You in Human History” video strikes me as quite plausible. It’s not simply that Trump is talking about economic displacement in an emotional way that conncects better with the disaffected than does Clinton’s cold, technocratic approach.  It’s that Trump’s whole message—which seems wildly incoherent at an intellectual level—resonates with people who see an old way of life gone and want it back.

I’ve been thinking about this issue the last several days since listening to a podcast of NPR’s “This American Life” which, ironically in light of last night’s events, talks about the schism within the Republican Party and whether it can be fixed.  The part that struck me was a rather long discussion about the backlash in Minnesota against a massive influx of Somali refugees.  I’ve been aware of the issue for a few years, as I have good friends in Minneapolis and visit occasionally.

The story begins with a town hall meeting in which a moderate Republican Congressman is accosted by his constituents about what he’s going to do about the problem.  He’s incredulous at the question. What problem? Well, there are a lot of Somalis here and we didn’t invite them!  But, they entered the country legally and have every right to be here.  Yeah, but we didn’t invite them.  And they’re changing things.  Are they breaking laws? Well, no.  But they’re changing things!  And they’re taking up our tax resources and giving nothing back.  Well, we actually get a stipend from the State Department and most of them have jobs and pay taxes.  Ultimately, it turns out, the citizens just “want a pause.”  They want time to absorb these new immigrants and just get used to a different conception of their community before being further inundated.

There was also an incident in which an otherwise nice local woman attacked a Somali woman at a restaurant–physically assaulted her—because she was so angry that she was speaking a different language and dressed in a different way.  And the Congressman was shocked that many of his friends and relatives took the side of the attacker, not the victim.

From an elite perspective, this is, at best, nativism and, at worst, racism. But the Congressman had to reconcile to himself that, no, these are friends and neighbors who are generally incredibly decent folks, good citizens, and the like.  That he had to someone persuade them rather than dismiss their concerns as irrational and bigoted.

Trump as the Realization of the Tea Party.   Because the Tea Party rose to national prominence at almost precisely the same time that Barack Obama became our president—and because of the use of the Confederate flag and other symbols by some of its membership—it was easy to dismiss as mostly about white resentment against a black president.  And, surely, there was no shortage of that.  But the Tea Party was, more fundamentally, a rejection of what used to pass as mainstream Republicanism.  It was a backlash against three decades of promises to make the lives of ordinary people—which is to say, rural white folks without fancy degrees—better.  These people were tired of ideologues and so-called experts.  They didn’t care about tax cuts, defense spending, or any of the Reagan platform.   Like Occupy Wall Street, a more urban-based analog on the Left, they wanted Big Government to make things right and had a very vague sense of what that would look like from a policy standpoint.

In this environment, the no-nothingism that so many of us on the #NeverTrump right found fundamentally disqualifying was a breath of fresh air.  Aside from some vague and mostly-since-disavowed remarks about curtailing immigration, there’s very little in the way of policy proposal from Trump. He has no ideology.  He has no plan.  He’s just going to Make America Great Again! and bring back jobs to white, blue-collar workers who have been screwed over by [pick your Other].   It’s dangerous and demagogic.  But its appeal is understandable.

Correction: A previous version of this post incorrectly stated that Obama won North Carolina in both 2008 and 2012.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, US Politics
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Eric Florack says:

    Comment deleted for violation of site policies.

  2. Argon says:

    Mr. Florack’s reply above deserves censure.

  3. Eric Florack says:

    No reason? Did I encourage her death or simply observe that the chances her death went up?

  4. al-Alameda says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Given the number of people who have died under mysterious circumstances who either would have exposed Clinton wrongdoing, or were successful at it, you really have to wonder how much longer Clintons ability to breathe and stay above room temperature will remain unimpeded.

    Better check, the Clintons had Vince Foster buried beneath the concrete flooring in your bunker bedroom.

  5. Guarneri says:

    The KKK? Racism? Seriously?

    Seven states that voted for Obama twice voted for Trump in 2016. Did all these Americans suddenly become racist in a few years time?

  6. Michael Shlau says:

    I do not disagree with anything that you said, but I also feel as if people are overlooking one obvious reason Clinton lost. The economy.

    In 2000, the unemployment rate was 4.0% on January 1st, 2000 and 3.9% on Election Day. GWB won the EC but lost the popular vote in a nailbiter.

    in 2016, the unemployment rate was 5.0% on January 1st, 2016 and 4.9% on Election Day. Trump won the EC but will lose the popular vote.

    People in both years saw progress in the economy but also began to see the expansion stalling so they voted for change.

    I don’t think these are coincidences. Had the unemployment rate fallen more in each of those years (evidencing less of a stall in the recovery) , Gore and Clinton win. Likewise, had unemployment risen in both of the years, GWB and Trump win easily.

    So my point is that while everything you say is true, don’t overthink it today. Sometimes an election loss is just bad historical luck. Move this election to November 8, 2015 in a year when the unemployment rate dropped quicker from 1/1 to November and I believe Clinton wins – awful candidate and all.

    But elections do have consequences. Hopefully, we do not look back on yesterday years fron now in sorrow.

  7. Argon says:

    Random thought: What are the odds we’ll see his uncensored tax returns before he leaves office? I’m guessing never.

  8. Dumb Brit says:

    For the second time in just over 4 months a major election has been swayed by the following:
    Concern that the best times are behind us
    Fear that the country is being “diluted” by immigrants
    An abject fear of the types of terrorism that are, mercifully, extremely rare in the free world
    Worry that foreign countries are taking all of our jobs away
    A belief that free trade adversely affects us financially
    The mistaken belief that almost all politicians are corrupt
    A belief that a “strong” leader is required, rather than the consensus politics that have kept us largely safe and prosperous post World War 2
    I could go on and on, but finally I will express my surprise that so many in UK do not see the equivalences between their vote for Brexit & for the Trump victory (I mention this as many of my associates voted for Brexit, but can not believe that Americans would vote for the Donald).

  9. Davebo says:

    Though they helped, it wasn’t white, rural Christians alone that elected Trump. Take Erick above. While white, he isn’t rural and obviously he isn’t a Christian.

  10. Guarneri says:

    @Argon:

    The same as the odds of seeing 33,000 emails detailing yoga poses and wedding plans (snicker).

  11. Facebones says:

    There was also an incident in which an otherwise nice local woman attacked a Somali woman at a restaurant–physically assaulted her—because she was so angry that she was speaking a different language and dressed in a different way. And the Congressman was shocked that many of his friends and relatives took the side of the attacker, not the victim.
    From an elite perspective, this is, at best, nativism and, at worst, racism. But the Congressman had to reconcile to himself that, no, these are friends and neighbors who are generally incredibly decent folks, good citizens, and the like.

    See, here’s where I show my ivory tower elitism. I think that if you assault someone for not speaking english or being dressed funny, then you are by definition not “incredibly decent” or a “good citizen.” If people bristle at being called a racist, perhaps they should not support the candidate endorsed by the KKK.

  12. Tillman says:

    Slight correction: North Carolina went for Mitt Romney in 2012. I believe it was by a slimmer margin, however.

  13. Pch101 says:

    @Eric Florack: Somewhere there is another guy named Eric Florack who has to worry about a guy on the internet who shares his name and who makes him look like a fruitcake.

    You’ve probably cost that other Eric a job or two, a girlfriend and some social media friends. Give poor Eric a break, would ya?

  14. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    If there aren’t some very intense an fascinating three-way discussions between the White House, the Clinton people, and Trump’s people about a pardon for Hillary, there will be, and very soon.

    Unless Obama acts unilaterally, of course, but that would NEVER happen.

  15. Eric Florack says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: possibly true but I don’t think it’ll come to that.

  16. Eric Florack says:

    @Davebo: I would be most interested in the basis of your questioning my Christianity.

  17. Eric Florack says:

    Deleted

  18. wr says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: Except there’s nothing to pardon her for, you moron.

    Also, you still haven’t figured out your God-king Trump. He doesn’t give a damn about Hillary. Now she’s an honorable civil servant. Because she’s not in his way any more.

    My God, you didn’t actually believe anything he said, did you?

  19. Dave Schuler says:

    @Michael Shlau:

    That’s something that hasn’t been emphasized enough. The econometric models which predicted that the Republican candidate would win regardless of who it was turned out to have been right.

  20. Gavrilo says:

    When I want to put my finger on the pulse of white, working class communities in the Midwest, I listen to NPR podcasts, too.

  21. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    @wr: It’s not surprising you haven’t heard of all the things Hillary has done that merit at least indictment — you have your head so far up your ass, all you ever hear is your own echoes.

    Trump isn’t God, Trump isn’t King, he’s my president-elect.

    And he’s yours, too.

    Congrats!

  22. al-Alameda says:

    @Gavrilo:

    When I want to put my finger on the pulse of white, working class communities in the Midwest, I listen to NPR podcasts, too.

    When I want fact-based commentary I listen to Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh.

  23. Lynn Eggers says:

    “There was also an incident in which an otherwise nice local woman attacked a Somali woman at a restaurant”

    No, she was not a nice woman.

    from http://www.inforum.com/news/3883273-beer-mug-attack-prosecutions-strategy-bypasses-hate-crime-charge

    “n 2007, she was convicted of driving without due care. The next year, she was twice cited for driving with excessive speed. In 2010, she got her first DWI. Fifth-degree assault, theft and other driving-related offenses also dot her record.”

  24. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @Argon: Why does it matter anymore? Don’t think we’ll see them, but for me it was never been about anything but idle curiousity.Don’t care about Clinton’s taxes either, or Romney’s.

  25. Scott says:

    A wave election.

    I don’t know. That is a pretty generous definition of a wave election. Democrats gained marginally in the House and Senate and Clinton marginally won the popular vote. I think a push back on wave election and even mandate is in order.

  26. KM says:

    Wait

    And, surely, there was no shortage of that. But the Tea Party was, more fundamentally, a rejection of what used to pass as mainstream Republicanism. It was a backlash against three decades of promises to make the lives of ordinary people—which is to say, rural white folks without fancy degrees—better. These people were tired of ideologues and so-called experts. They didn’t care about tax cuts, defense spending, or any of the Reagan platform. Like Occupy Wall Street, a more urban-based analog on the Left, they wanted Big Government to make things right and had a very vague sense of what that would look like from a policy standpoint.

    And when Trump proves to be just another in the line of conmen, then what? He made some pretty outlandish promises it will obvious he’s not keeping. When bricks and barbed wire fail to materialize on the Rio Grande’s shores, its gonna be pretty goddamn clear Build the Wall ain’t happening. How exactly does the GOP plan to spin that since it’s clearly not hyperbole to his fans but a genuine physical reality he’s doubled down on?

    These types of people aren’t tired of “experts”. They’re tired of people smarter then them not telling the lies they want to hear. They’re tired of “elites” , not realizing how elite they seem to the rest of the planet. They’re tired of life not going their way and refusing to adapt to differences. They want a world frozen in time. Government can’t make that happen – only a fairy godmother can. So lie to them, Donald – that’s all they want. Lie to them and let them rage when they realize it’s all lies. They’ll come back to you anyways.

  27. Pch101 says:

    @Eric Florack:

    If I wanted to craft an online persona that was designed to make conservatives look like absolute nutjobs, I would model it after you, blended with a touch of Jenos for good measure.

  28. al-Alameda says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable:

    Trump isn’t God, Trump isn’t King, he’s my president-elect.
    And he’s yours, too.
    Congrats!

    I’m sure that Republicans will expect Democrats to shape up and unify behind Republoican congressional leadership.

    I’m guessing that Mitch McConnell will rescind his order to obstruct everything a president does, and that he will rescind that filibuster rule stuff.

  29. JKB says:

    The real change

    John Podhoretz Verified account

    Liberals spent 40 years disaggregating U.S., until finally the largest cohort in the country chose to vote as though it were an ethnic group

  30. SenyorDave says:

    My somewhat random thoughts:

    I’m starting to think this was an election that any Democrat would have had trouble winning. There’s a real problem in this country in that we just elected a man who:
    1. Had no coherent policies other than “I will be fix all the problems”
    2. Lied much of the time he presented a fact
    3. Is a documented cheat in business, in addition to running numerous cons such as Tumrp U
    4. Admitted and bragged to the fact that he is a sexual predator ON CAMERA
    5. Has a campaign CEO who runs a website that is essentially a clearinghouse for white supremacists (how this didn’t become a story with the media I’ll never understand.)
    6. Is overtly racist, sexist

    Its stunning when you realize the sitting president has a 55% approval rating, came into office in the midst of the worst economic times since the Depression, and the president elect openly race baited him with the Birther issue.

    I do think ultimately the emails/Clinton Foundation combination ended up working by reducing enthusiasm, especially among women. Aside from the insane idea that any woman would even consider voting for an admitted sexual predator (and IMO, probably worse) for any office, I would have assumed that the women of this country would be pretty jazzed up to vote for Clinton. It turns out women of color were, other women, not so much.

  31. Pch101 says:

    Re: the article, I would suggest that this is one election that calls for a lot of state-level number crunching, with an effort made to see the individual differences between states.

    For example, one will note that Trump won about as many votes in Wisconsin as did Mitt Romney in 2012, yet the overall vote count in Milwaukee (a key Dem stronghold) was down about 11% from 2012.

    Meanwhile, Trump won the same percentage of the vote in Florida as did Romney in 2012, and various exit polls find that Dems were about as loyal as can be expected but the independents broke for Trump..

    On the other hand, Ohio looks like a complete blowout for Trump — when the total vote is in, we may find Trump won about as many votes as did Obama in 2012 — while Pennsylvania wasn’t quite at that level.

    A lot of this happened at the margins, and broad pronouncements probably won’t explain it. This will need a lot of spreadsheets and even more coffee.

  32. JKB says:

    The Democrats will now control next to nothing above the municipal level.

    Donald Trump will be president. We are going to be unpacking this night for the rest of our lives, and lives beyond that. We can’t comprehend even 1 percent of what’s just happened. But one aspect of it, minor in the overall sweep, that I’m pretty sure we can comprehend well enough right now: The Democratic Party establishment has beclowned itself and is finished.

    Uhm. eek?

  33. inhumans99 says:

    @al-Alameda:

    I actually think that if Hillary was in office they would try to nuke the filibuster, but I bet that as much as the GOP would love to screw over the dems who plan to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct in the Senate, that even with that in mind the GOP does not want to get rid of a tool that will allow them to curb some of Trump’s excesses.

  34. SenyorDave says:

    @JKB: I think the principles are basically out too. Things Democrats stand for will be absent from the national stage. Curiously, one of those is some sense of fiscal responsibility. Democrats may be the party of tax and spend, but Republicans have become the party of borrow and spend. Obama has one of the most impressive fiscal responsibility records of any president in the past 40 years. He inherited a $1 trillion deficit, and has generally cut it YOY. Who knows what he could have done if he had an opposition party that didn’t act like he was Satan. Now we have president-elect who has promised a tax cut that virtually all economists except Arthur Laffer have said will explode the deficit. I guess Dick Cheney was right when he said deficits don’t matter.

  35. SenyorDave says:

    @JKB: Is he saying that disaggregating (sic) society was a bad thing? I mean didn’t people die in the Civil Rights movement fighting for the right to attend schools that weren’t segregated? Was the Civil Rights Movement a bad thing?

  36. Terrye Cravens says:

    I am disgusted…and all I can say is Republicans own this candidate now. They own the government. No more conspiracy theories and grievance mongering. It is on them. The question is will Trump turn out to be a run of the mill Republican who conned people into voting for him…or an authoritarian with no respect for the Constitution. Who knows?

  37. Guarneri says:

    News Item

    Two million Canadians threaten to leave for the US upon learning Lena Dunham may be Canadian bound.

  38. JKB says:

    @SenyorDave:

    You should look up the word, disaggregate.

    Desegregation is an antonym

  39. Terrye Cravens says:

    @Eric Florack: That is just stupid.

  40. JKB says:

    @Guarneri:

    Why do none of these celebrities move to Mexico? It’s cheaper and has nicer winters.

  41. JKB says:

    So who’s the next big candidate in the Democratic party?

    Bernie?
    Chelsea?
    Michelle?
    Tim?

  42. SenyorDave says:

    @JKB: My bad

  43. Terrye Cravens says:

    @Guarneri: Give it a rest. The RNC lost 22 million documents from the Bush administration without so much as a kiss my behind from people like you. And Trump has a court case coming in a couple of weeks, an FBI investigation of his own and an IRS investigation. Once you elect a corrupt con man like Trump, 33,000 emails don’t amount to much.

  44. al-Alameda says:

    @JKB:

    Why do none of these celebrities move to Mexico? It’s cheaper and has nicer winters.

    Or be a conservative ‘celebrity’ like Michael Savage and live in a socialist wasteland like Southern Marin County, just north of San Francisco.

  45. Eric Florack says:

    @Terrye Cravens: meaning of course that I’m not kissing liberal backside. Noted. Thank you for that assessment. When you get back to reality let me know

  46. Eric Florack says:

    @Guarneri: I gather that the Canadian immigration site crashed under the load last night

  47. grumpy realist says:

    @al-Alameda: It’s just like all the Ayn Randites yowling about How Wonderful No Taxes Are who end up living in blue states. Because they like things like roads. And street lighting. And piped water.

  48. Eric Florack says:

    @Terrye Cravens: does that mean the Democrats are completely withdraw from government and not oppose progress? Huge news…

  49. Eric Florack says:

    @Pch101: since by your lights anyone to the right of Fidel Castro was a nut job, I’ll take your assessment under advisement

  50. Guarneri says:

    @JKB:

    Because they are full of shixt.

  51. John D'Geek says:

    It’s that Trump’s whole message—which seems wildly incoherent at an intellectual level—resonates with people who see an old way of life gone and want it back.

    From a Kappasinian perspective, modern politics is purely hypnotic*. The thing about hypnosis, though, is trust — if you cannot inspire trust in those you are hypnotising, you cannot perform your social persuasion (aka mass hypnosis) properly. Clinton had zero trust on the right, and not much more on the left. Donald Trump, on the other hand, was able to inspire Trust. (Which is not the same thing as being trustworthy.)

    In addition to suggesting you read my comment on Dr. Taylors thread, I want to introduce you to a metphor on Dr. Haidt’s book: people are riders (conscious mind) on elephants (the non-conscious parts). We usually think the rider is in charge, but it’s not — the rider’s job is to make stuff up to justify why they “really want to go that way in the first place.”

    All human beings do this.

    Even me, writing this comment.

    * – “Hypnosis: ‘any modality that bypasses the conscious mind to affect a change in behavior.'” Dr. John Kappas. This is the Kappasinian definition of hypnosis, and does not correlate very well with the APA’s definition.

  52. Guarneri says:

    @grumpy realist:

    That’s funny. TN has roads, lighting and piped water.. Even airports and national parks.

    Well she–it.

  53. wr says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: Gosh, on the one hand, the Republican head of the FBI says there’s nothing to indict her for. On the other, some crappy little internet troll who is going to have to go back to stealing health care once his God-king takes over says she’s icky poo poo. Who do I believe? Who do I believe?

  54. wr says:

    @SenyorDave: ” Was the Civil Rights Movement a bad thing?”

    To the JKBs and Jenos’ of the world, the only thing worse than the Civil Rights Movement was the 13th amendment.

  55. JKB says:

    A blast from the past.

    As Tuesday night faded into Wednesday morning, shock gave way to an aching acceptance of defeat for the entire Democratic Party. Gliding gracefully on Reagan’s coattails, Republicans slipped past their opponents in all parts of the country. They grabbed control of the Senate for the first time in 25 years, inched to within striking distance in the House of Representatives, and won clear victories in the battle for governorships and state legislatures.

    I did not know that Reagan’s victory had taken out Evan Bayh’s senator father.

    “We’ve seen a new virulence and a new velocity to this extremism that is unique in American political history,” a bitter McGovern said on the evening of his defeat.

    This from a guy who witnessed the 1968 Democratic convention first hand.

    The pragmatic people at the Kennedy School of Government, meanwhile, were busy figuring out how many displaced Democrats would accept Institute of Politics’ offers to spend next term in Cambridge.

    That’s probably going on right now as well.

  56. wr says:

    @Guarneri: “Two million Canadians threaten to leave for the US upon learning Lena Dunham may be Canadian bound.”

    Astonishing. Financial genius Guarneri is so terrified of women who have control over their own lives that even in this moment all he can think about is trashing one who is far more successful, talented and influential than he will ever be.

    Ladies and gentlemen, the perfect Trump voter.

  57. Guarneri says:

    @wr:

    Believe your eyes. Just discovered footage of Hillary home videos from Weiners computer.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aopdD9Cu-So

  58. SenyorDave says:

    @Guarneri: You are right, and in light of that maybe we can cut the billions in subsidy for the TVA. It would be nice to see some significant cuts in federal spending. I’m looking forward to the $400 billion in discretionary spending cuts to pay for the tax cuts (I’m assuming they won’t add to the deficit).

  59. grumpy realist says:

    @Guarneri: I believe that in the utopia envisioned by the no-tax Ayn Randites none of them would exist.

    After all, how high are the levels of road/plumbing/airports in places in Africa without taxes?

  60. SenyorDave says:

    @Guarneri: What are you, 9 years old? I guess Trump’s insults of women really resonated with you. They certainly did appeal to infantile minds. You must have been on the floor rolling with laughter when Trump imitated Serge Kovaleski. It was so clever the way he mocked a man with a severe movement disorder.

  61. michael reynolds says:

    @SenyorDave:

    Guarneri’s a pig, like Trump.

    The amazing thing is these fools think they’ve earned some sort of respect. In fact the opposite is true: they’ve proven the toxicity of non-urban whites.

    I want some kind of blue boutonniere to wear so I’m not mistaken for one of them. It’s like being Muslim the day after a terrorist attack.

  62. Mikey says:

    @grumpy realist: Libertarianism: because one man’s roads, schools, clean water, and safe food are another man’s crippling oppression!

  63. al-Alameda says:

    @grumpy realist:

    @al-Alameda: It’s just like all the Ayn Randites yowling about How Wonderful No Taxes Are who end up living in blue states. Because they like things like roads. And street lighting. And piped water.

    Exactly. When they (conservative ‘celebrities’) get some money and success they move to so-called lifestyle regions where the people generally vote liberal and Democratic by large margins.

  64. Pch101 says:

    @Eric Florack:

    I know that you were trying to be witty, but that just sounds like a cry for help.

  65. JKB says:

    Exit polls are just polls; real turnout analysis will have to await the final vote count. State-level information is also incomplete. But the available data runs directly counter to the casual assumption that Trump’s victory relied on narrow and exclusionary appeal, that it indicates an ascendant white identity politics, or that it portends further segregation of the electorate. In fact, nonwhite voters seem to have found the relative appeal of Trump’s message versus Clinton to be significantly stronger than that of Romney’s message versus Obama.

  66. grumpy realist says:

    @al-Alameda: I’ve always found it remarkable that for all the yowling about how Lower Taxez Iz Teh Most Important, the red states like Kansas don’t seem to, well, be attracting all those fantastic entrepreneurs.

    Funny how the access to Other Things turns out to be more important to actual entrepreneurs…..

    (What of course you want to be doing is bootstrapping yourself because the most important stuff for an entrepreneur is a) access to capital, and b) being able to use time as efficiently as possible. So if you’re stuck out in the middle of nowhere and aren’t going to be able to hire great people because they all insist the amenities of, um, CITIES, the low, low tax rate is as about as useful as chopped cabbage is to a silicon chip manufacturer.)

  67. PJ says:

    This is what you have to sacrifice to get the Cubs to win the World Series.

  68. KM says:

    @PJ:

    This is what you have to sacrifice to get the Cubs to win the World Series.

    Dark witchcraft indeed. No wonder it took so long…..

  69. Terrye Cravens says:

    I keep seeing these Trump supporters demanding fealty and respect etc…as if I am going to bow down just because their guy won…well, did they roll over for Obama? Or any other politician they did not like or agree with? That is all Trump is to me…a lying politician. And I don’t trust the bastard.

  70. Terrye Cravens says:

    @Eric Florack: Give it a rest. I am more conservative than Trump is. I don’t need to hear any silly yammering about liberals. There is a difference between right wing nut job and conservative. I have a right to dislike Trump. I did not like him 25 years ago when he was a pro amnesty open borders pro choice New York liberal and I don’t like him now that he is a hero the KKK. I hear he got their official endorsement. You must be so proud.

  71. wr says:

    @Guarneri: I try to imagine a world in which I would click on a link you provided…

  72. Terrye Cravens says:

    @wr:

    Are you talking to me? link

  73. Senyordave says:

    @Terrye Cravens: I’m a liberal and I didn’t like him when he wanted the death penalty for the Central Park Five in 1989. The city was already polarized and Trump stepped in to make it worse. I realized then what an opportunist he was, and he hasn’t changed a bit. Say anything, do anything, but its always about him. It isn’t surprising that 27 years later he still believe the Central park Five were guilty even though it has been proven that another man did the crime. They are, after all, African American. That’s proof enough for Trump.

  74. MBunge says:

    @michael reynolds: The amazing thing is these fools think they’ve earned some sort of respect. In fact the opposite is true: they’ve proven the toxicity of non-urban whites.

    And by the same logic, you’ve proven to be a loser. YOU COULDN’T EVEN BEAT DONALD TRUMP.

    I’ve lived long enough to see plenty of elections and be on the winning and losing side a bunch of times. I have never seen a more pitiful bunch of losers than this time around. You lost because you were wrong. Hugely, spectacularly, profoundly wrong. Wrong about Hillary. Wrong about Trump. Wrong about our country. Wrong about the basic mechanics of politics. And your childish response to your self-inflicted loss appears to be a decision to remain wrong and arrogantly demand the world change to make you right.

    Good luck with that.

    Mike

  75. bandit says:

    Poor little coven of crybabies. Make sure Mom washes your sheets after you wet them.

  76. bandit says:

    @michael reynolds: Too bad racist crybaby – I laugh at your tears

  77. michael reynolds says:

    @bandit:

    My tears? You poor dumb fwck. Last year Trump would have saved me 180k in federal taxes. I literally have open in another tab the rightmove website, switching between listings in the Algarve and the North Island of New Zealand. What’s Cheetoh Jesus getting you for Christmas?

  78. al-Alameda says:

    @bandit:

    Poor little coven of crybabies. Make sure Mom washes your sheets after you wet them.

    Fortunately for me I bought Dry Cleaning Futures – I knew that, whether conservatives won or lost, they would be crapping in their pants. Congratulations.

  79. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    @wr: Gosh, on the one hand, the Republican head of the FBI says there’s nothing to indict her for.

    There’s a perfectly logical and consistent explanation for Comey’s actions — each of the three times he spoke up. And it does NOT involve exonerating her. However, I can’t decide if you’re too stupid, too narrow-minded, or too hyperpartisan to grasp it, so I won’t bother.

    Oh, heck, let’s embrace the power of “and.”

    And gosh, look at how the markets did today. Up, and up big.

    Or should I say “up YUUUUGE.”

  80. Pch101 says:

    @michael reynolds:

    I’m a fan of Tavira myself.

    It’s a bit far from the rest of civilization for my tastes, but Dunedin on the South Island of NZ has a college town vibe. NZ is a great place to visit for extended periods; buy hiking boots and use them.

  81. michael reynolds says:

    @MBunge:
    Dude, do you really think that 50% of the vote – the half that’s uneducated, old and rural – is going to somehow define the culture in this country? From where, Wisconsin? Arkansas? People who create our culture have already written those people off. We write and film and make music, write software and develop games for the coasts and for China and Europe. People in Cowpaddy think we ‘coastal elites’ have forgotten them? Well, duh: they have no money and they are an intellectual backwater.

    You know how this plays out? Trump makes me richer and his voters poorer. That’s the reality, and if you think about it for a few minutes, you’ll realize I’m right. I get tax cuts, and since consumer goods are a relatively small part of my outlays, I don’t really take the hit if the idiot really does launch a trade war.

    As it happens, my overseas deals are almost all via my UK publisher, so I don’t even have to worry about trade retaliation touching my sales. And the best part is I was already plotting a move to adult from YA and had conceived the idea of a detective who specializes in the various expat communities around the world. I was just looking to write off travel, but now damned if it isn’t an even better idea.

    A big part of the problem here is that the Trumpies are heading right for a brick wall of disappointment. They’ve been promised a lot of things, few of which are even possible. And as dumb as they are they’re going to start noticing when costs go up, and Mexicans continue to exist, and the magic high-paying factory jobs don’t come. Plus they’ll lose their health insurance. So, yay for your team, pal.

    The worrisome thing is that having voted for a fascist out of nothing but spite, when they are inevitably disappointed and just becoming dimly aware that they’ve been outwitted yet again, they may go looking for someone even worse.

  82. michael reynolds says:

    @Pch101:
    I’ll check it out. I’ve been to NZ twice but both times on book tour, so it was nothing but hotels, schools and festival venues. I’ve been thinking Wellington. It’s their San Fran, so I should be able to get a view.

  83. Pch101 says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Wellington has the wind of Chicago and then some.

    I spent only a few days there. I liked it well enough, but it’s probably more livable than it is exciting. It’s the countryside that makes NZ special.

    If you need to travel internationally with any frequency, then you need to be near Auckland. It’s a bit like LA — more horizontal than vertical, motorway (freeway)-dependent, highly suburbanized.

  84. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    So, when’s the march on Washington and the occupation of the White House to prevent Trump from taking office? Where are the recall petitions? Where are the riots?

    Come on, people, you have the wonderful example of 2012 Wisconsin to live up to. Time to stock up on papier mache now! Beat the January rush!

  85. Mikey says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: It was your guy who wasn’t going to accept the result of he lost, not Clinton. Stop projecting.

  86. Senyordave says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: Does it ever occur to you that there are liberals/progressives/moderates who don’t have the same views as you but have many of the same concerns? I care about jobs, retirement, health care on a personal level, but I also care about these same issues for all people. I have major questions about Trump’s policies, mostly because he never articulated how he would pay for anything. He wants $4 triilion in tax cuts over 10 years, mostly tilted to the wealthy (Michael Reynolds is correct, people like he will make out very well), but how would they be paid for? I looked on his website a month back and the only thing I could figure was that they would pay for itself through increased growth. My guess is that they will try to pass the Ryan budget which will put a nice hole in the social safety net, while simultaneously putting forth a growth numbers that are a work of fiction that would Mr. Reynolds proud.
    Jenos, doesn’t it bother you in the least that Trump didn’t even bother making a half-assed attempt at coherent policies? I know he wasn’t going to articulate them at a debate, but even his webpages pretty much are devoid of details. A lot of we will do, but not much of here’s how.

  87. dxq says:

    @Salon

    Our first black president will have to hand over the White House to someone endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan. Just let that sink in.
    2:54 AM – 9 Nov 2016

  88. Senyordave says:

    @dxq: Don’t worry, Trump doesn’t know who David Duke is. I remember him telling us that.

  89. @michael reynolds: If you want to try Brazil, I can help you. Not that I think that our politicians are much better than Trump.

  90. MikeSJ says:

    I am wondering what Trump voters expect him to actually do.

    Do they think he really is going to build a wall? Deport the illegals? Cut taxes and spur yuge growth? Bring the factory jobs back?

    Are they really that gullible?

    Seriously, can a Trump supporter tell me what they actually expect Trump to do? I’m mystified since pretty much everything he said was B.S. or nonsense.

    P.S. Christchurch on the South Island of NZ is beautiful.. Hopefully no more quakes for a while…

  91. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    @Senyordave: Does it ever occur to you that there are liberals/progressives/moderates who don’t have the same views as you but have many of the same concerns?

    Around here? Not so much. Such courtesies have been… scant.

    Not so flippantly? I didn’t support Trump in the primaries, but (in part thanks to Hillary and the DNC) my candidate didn’t win, Trump did. So it became a choice between the two.

    Let’s look at Russia. In 2009, Hillary gave them a (misspelled) “RESET” button. In 2012, Obama mocked Romney for saying Russia was a future problem, and told their president that after that election, he’d “have more flexibility,” and was assured that “I will transmit this information to Vladimir.” Now they’re The Kinda-Reddish Menace all over again.

    Hillary was the leading figure in the war in Libya, and that’s a huge catastrophe. She backed Obama’s policies in Syria, and that’s an even huger catastrophe.

    Hillary was key in Obama’s “pivot” to Asia, and quite a few of our allies there are choosing instead to cozy up to China.

    You’re worried about the debt? Obama pretty much doubled it during his tenure.

    You’re worried about Trump having access to the nuclear launch codes? Hillary had her maid printing out her classified emails.

    You’re way too late with your concerns, Dave. Months, maybe years.

  92. Jenos The Deplorable says:

    @MikeSJ: I am wondering what Trump voters expect him to actually do.

    My sole expectation is one that I am pretty confident he will meet:

    Don’t be Hillary Clinton. Don’t do the stupid, mean-spirited, self-serving, corrupt things that we can be sure she would do, because that’s how she’s always rolled.

    He very well might do stupid, mean-spirited, self-serving, and corrupt things, but they won’t be the kinds of things we could expect from Hillary.

  93. EddieInCA says:

    All day long today, I’ve been doing what I do. I’m breaking down a script for a budget for the next project I’m producing. Around me, alot of my friends were caterwauling about the loss. I get their pain. But the reality is that it’s happened. It’s in the rear view mirror.

    I’m old enough to remember Reagan kicking Carter’s ass, and I was happy as I voted for Reagan. Twice. At the time, I thought he was better for the nation.

    I was sad and depressed after 2000, when I voted for Gore, because I thought he was better for the nation. . And again in 2004. For the same reason. I believed Kerry would have been a better President than GW Bush.

    I walked precincts for Hillary in Georgia. I live in Los Angeles. Why? Because she was the better candidate for the nation, and I happen to work alot in Georgia.

    A Trump presidency is better for me, personally. I’m going to get a huge tax cut. I don’t have to worry about Healthcare, as I am covered by both Motion Picture Insurance, and DGA insurance. If you want to know what a good insurance plan looks like, check out the Directors Guild of America. I have a rock solid pension with the DGA and with Motion Picture; one that won’t be stolen by a corporate raider like Romney or others. I have a ridiculous house with a sick pool, in a very, very healthy part of Los Angeles. In other words, I have a great effin’ life.

    Many Trump voters voted against what is not only bad for them, but bad for the country.

    Keep companies from moving to Mexico? Right. The companies will move to Mexico and sell to the rest of the world. There are two huge countries on the other side of the world that would love to buy those goods.

    Too many Americans don’t understand, and don’t care that we’re living in a global world, not the parochial world of their past. The USA they want back isn’t coming back. Coal is not coming back. There is no such thing as clean coal. The oceans are rising. Ask the people of Miami. While they’re getting “sunny day flooding”, the people in the panhandle are saying “What global warming”?

    Build the wall. Right.

    Obamacare is going away, probably. Great. You’re going to take away healthcare from 30 million people. Well done. Something to be proud of.

    Let’s get rid of all banking regulations. That worked out well last time.

    It’s a great time to be alive. But then again, so was 1926.

  94. john430 says:

    @dxq:

    Low income rural white voters in PA voted for Obama in 2008 and then Trump in 2016 and your explanation is White Supremacy? Interesting.

  95. dxq says:

    trump’s unexpected rural white boom was first-time voters.

  96. Guarneri says:

    @wr:

    Yes, terrified. Damned terrified. Shaking in my boots.

  97. Guarneri says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Clever repartee there, Michael. So now you’ve called me a Nazi and a pig. When do start up the homophobe, stupid, etc machine that is your stock in trade?

    And you guys wonder why you lost, have neither the Senate or House, and a paucity of state positions. SS and government pensions are broke. ObamaCare exchanges are going broke. Obama has more military conflicts going on today than when he entered office. The economy limps along. Underemployment is rampant. Growth anemic. Income inequality increasing. Quite a shixt show for Obamas tenure. You have nothing. Nothing. Excuse me, that’s wrong. At least everyone now has to retrofit outhouses for trannies, eliminating that national crisis. So you got that.

    Well, back to your pity party. Maybe you should open up your repertoire. Call me a poopie or something. That’ll fix all your woes.

  98. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @Scott: I don’t know. For what it’s worth, I would like to see the GOP and conservatism turn back into a party/philosophy that I could convince myself to vote in favor of. In order for that to happen, I think we are going to need to let them run things. The siren song on immigration reform, health care, foreign policy, and whatever else you would like to mention for some 8-16 years has been, “we have great ideas, but the obstructionists in the liberal movement, with the aid of their lackeys in the Democrat Party have silenced, obstructed, and frustrated every attempt that we have made to make the country better and stronger.” If liberals and Democrats begin right away introducing the GOP playbook from the past 8 years because “he doesn’t have any mandate,” they will be letting him and the GOP off the hook.

    I’ve been saying for many years now that the GOP is trying to sell off of an empty wagon. We as a nation need to confirm that. Trump talked about somethings that I would like to see happen–infrastructure reform being one of the most important ones. I don’t care who gets credit for doing it. While I believe that the GOP would like to repeal Obamacare, I don’t think that the insurance lobby is going to be all that amenable to giving up the income from several million health care policies that the government is currently paying the premiums on, so I’m willing to roll the dice on that (FULL DISCLOSURE: I apply for Medicare in December of this year, so I may not be the best guy to make that call). Moreover if the insurers ARE willing to forego that income, it’s probably a sign that the program needs tweeking and they won the right to tweek.

    As Terrye Cravens note above, it’s time for them to govern now. I say put up or shut up.

  99. Gavrilo says:

    @michael reynolds:

    that 50% of the vote – the half that’s uneducated, old and rural – is going to somehow define the culture in this country? From where, Wisconsin? Arkansas? People who create our culture have already written those people off. We write and film and make music, write software and develop games for the coasts and for China and Europe. People in Cowpaddy think we ‘coastal elites’ have forgotten them? Well, duh: they have no money and they are an intellectual backwater.

    Remember kids, Democrats care about people.

  100. Jen says:

    @MikeSJ: I’m wondering that too. Really, which of his promises can he even keep? Even for the anti-trade stuff he’s going to run up against a Republican Congress, many of whom are there because they received support from the US Chamber of Commerce and the NFIB, both of which have strongly backed trade policies. I cannot think of one promise he has made that isn’t going to run into a brick wall. Even “repeal and replace Obamacare” isn’t happening–both Sen. Frist and Paul Ryan had “fix what’s wrong” statements out yesterday. Mitch McConnell said term limits are a “non-starter” and none of them will even discuss the “wall.” If Trump thinks being president means he’ll get his way, he is going to have an unpleasant awakening soon. He’ll also have to sit through endless meetings, pay attention to things (not possible, but hey), and make decisions for which HE is SOLELY responsible for the outcome. No one to blame–the buck stops with you, buddy.

    And anyone who thinks that a Trump Administration isn’t going to be rife with corruption is living in a fantasy world. The only problem is a lapdog congress that will look the other way.

  101. michael reynolds says:

    @Andre Kenji de Sousa:
    Thanks, dude.

  102. michael reynolds says:

    @Gavrilo:

    You know what, asshole? We tried. I spent money supporting candidates who would raise MY taxes for the benefit of other Americans. You on the other hand are desperate to take health insurance from 30 million Americans for no reason but spite.

    The same hopelessly stupid voters who supported the destruction of unions are enthusiastically supporting the end of their own health insurance. You’re too dumb to be saved. Too stupid to care about any more.

  103. michael reynolds says:

    @Guarneri:

    You support the man supported by the KKK, the American Nazi Party and Vladimir Putin. You don’t support him out of conviction, but out of spite. This was the spite election, an expression of hatred and fear. You and your ilk have smeared shit right across the page of American history.

    In short: fwck you.

  104. Rick DeMent says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable:

    Don’t do the stupid, mean-spirited, self-serving, corrupt things that we can be sure she would do, because that’s how she’s always rolled.

    Why should he change now?

  105. Jen says:

    This is the sort of thing that leads me to believe this will be an inadvertently corrupt administration:

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/news/companies/donald-trump-president-business-conflicts/index.html

    He has too many interests across the globe for him to make decisions that do not directly or indirectly impact his businesses.

  106. wr says:

    @Jenos The Deplorable: It’s amazing the little explanations that make perfect sense to you when you have no knowledge of the law, politics, or human beings. At least you keep yourself entertained.

  107. grumpy realist says:

    @Jen: As said, cultivate one’s garden, make sure you have a bolt-hole, and watch the rest of the US decide to pull a Brownbeckistan until people wise up and discover what taxes are for. Ha ha ha.

    Well, I’ve got a company to run and some inventions to get some patents on… chat later.

  108. john430 says:

    @michael reynolds: @Guarneri: Reynolds’ stock answers are based on what he really thinks of his fellow Americans. They are stupid, evil and are only fit to be serfs. LOL!

    I have a science degree, my beloved is a Hispanic woman finishing her doctorate and many of her Hispanic woman friends are also professionals who, guess what? Voted for Trump. Not that they were necessarily enamored of him but they disliked Hillary even more.

    He will likely throw up his hands and threaten to move to Canada. Why Canada and not Mexico? ‘Cause they are, at heart, the true racists.

  109. HarvardLaw92 says:

    Filed under the delicious irony category:

    After running ads excoriating Goldman as being the cause of Middle America’s desperation, it looks like he’s set to select Steve Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary.

    Now, that wouldn’t seem bad on face, until you realize that Steve is a former banker – at Goldman – and he worked in, of all things, their mortgage backed securities unit.

    You just can’t make this sh*t up … 🙂

  110. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @michael reynolds:

    I literally have open in another tab the rightmove website, switching between listings in the Algarve and the North Island of New Zealand.

    I feel you. As luck would have it, the firm has an office in Paris. They’re even paying for the move. I keep responsibility for the unit in NYC and gain responsibility for additional business in France / the EU. I went in with what I considered to be a ludicrous demands package, in the belief that they’d just counter with a saleback and enjoy your retirement, but they never blinked. I guess they value my services.

    Busy looking at homes in the 16th and 7th as well as Neuilly sur Seine. The wife is determined to live IN Paris. I’m determined NOT to – which means that we’ll be living in Paris. Feel free to visit.

  111. Andrew says:

    “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” – H.L. Mencken.

  112. grumpy realist says:

    @HarvardLaw92: Got room for another visitor?

    Hope you’re used to the speed of Parisian French.

    (My mother was convinced they were talking that fast just in order to keep her on her toes.)

    And if you ever visit Marseilles, nobody who isn’t from there will understand the accent. Not even other French. You have been warned…

  113. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @grumpy realist:

    I’ve mostly learned over time when I’m speaking to a Parisian to effect a dumb stare, even if I initially got 90% of what was being said. It causes them to consider me an idiot, feel sorry for me and speak much more slowly going forward. The verbs are my downfall, but I suspect that will improve with time.

    The biggest surprise has been the kids. I figured they’d be upset, at least initially, but all of them are beside themselves excited about moving.

    Of course you’re welcome to visit anytime. Kindred souls are always welcome in our home.

  114. grumpy realist says:

    @HarvardLaw92: For French verbs, I can only suggest the technique my proffesseur suggested when I was a wee kid trying to make sense of the French school system:

    BLED. There are several volumes available for le 4me, 5me, and 6me. Pages upon pages of exercises. I was presented with whatever volume deals with the conjugations, given a booklet of paper, a pencil, and told to get on with it.

    After plowing through BLED, you will never run into an unknown French verb again. I guarantee it.

  115. Mikey says:

    @john430:

    He will likely throw up his hands and threaten to move to Canada. Why Canada and not Mexico? ‘Cause they are, at heart, the true racists.

    Yeah, because literally the only difference between Canada and Mexico is the complexion of the residents.

  116. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @grumpy realist:

    I will pick up copies. Thanks for the tip 🙂

  117. Pch101 says:

    @john430:

    I realize that you aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but even you should be able to figure out that Canada is more ethnically diverse than Mexico.

    You claim to be Catholic, yet you are openly hostile to the Jesuit appreciation for learning

  118. Todd says:

    Here’s a post I made on my Facebook page back on May 20th. It’s sadly prescient.

    Warning: one of my rare political posts. If you don’t do politics, please feel free to skip this one. And if you do do politics, please keep any comments civil.

    There’s a very real possibility that Donald Trump will be our next president. When/if that happens, partisan Democrats, instead of looking in the mirror and wondering why they insisted on nominating a terribly flawed candidate that a majority of the country views unfavorably, will blame …

    Bernie Sanders.

    I will never be a Republican. But at this point, my utter contempt for the Democratic party is not too easily suppressed.

    I don’t want to see Donald Trump sitting in the oval office. But at the same time, I really don’t want to see arrogant Democrats (who simply assume that Sanders supporters, who they are currently calling names like ‘delusional’ will “have to” vote for Clinton) to feel in any way rewarded for their decisions.

    Some of the choices the candidates make over the next few months may make a difference. For instance, Donald Trump’s list of conservatives he would consider appointing to the Supreme Court does influence me to be more likely to want to vote against him in November, regardless of who the other choice is. (The Mexican wall and Muslim ban things I don’t take too seriously. SCOTUS appointments on the other hand are promises he would be much more likely to keep if elected).

    Also, I think Clinton’s VP selection could matter. Elizabeth Warren is the wildcard. If she can be convinced to run with Clinton, it would likely be a lot easier for many Sanders’ voters to make that primarily anti-Trump vote, that will have the side-effect of benefiting Clinton. If on the other hand, she chooses a moderate running mate such as Tim Kaine or Mark Warner from VA, then runs a campaign aimed at trying to attract “disaffected moderate Republicans”, she’s going to lose … and down ballot Democrats may suffer too. A not insignificant percentage of people who she (and her supporters) assume are voting for her, will instead stay home, vote 3rd party, or even write in the candidate they prefer.

    The conventional wisdom among politicians and the media tends to overestimate the likelihood that Republicans will remain divided about Donald Trump, while simultaneously underestimating how strong anti-Clinton sentiments run, and not just among conservatives.

    There are already polls showing the race between Clinton and Trump essentially tied, not just nationally, but also in key swing States. Democrats will dismiss these polls as not predictive … in much the same way that Republicans in the primary season imagined that Trump’s inevitable collapse was always “just around the corner”.

  119. john430 says:

    @Pch101: Whassamatter? Too many brown people in Mexico for you? Not up to rubbing elbows with indigenous folks?

    BTW: I was educated by the Marianists, not Jesuits, so I see Trump’s election as an example of divine intervention-LOL!!
    You strike me as something of a New Age-y type, so consult the Celestine Prophecy wherein they say there is no such thing as a coincidence. Some things are meant to happen..

    So…if you are one of the losers looking to leave the USA, send me your address and I’ll come help you pack.

  120. Pch101 says:

    @john430:

    Everyone has a purpose in this life. Yours is to give hope to idiots by holding up the bottom of the ladder.

    Toronto’s white population is about the same percentage as LA’s. But I’m sure that you know nothing about either place.

  121. john430 says:

    @Pch101: Lived in California and Washington state. Familiar with LAX AND the Bay Area. Not too familiar with Toronto but can recommend some excellent restaurants in Vancouver, B. C. Do you prefer French or Chinese?

    You can add Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, Britain, Spain and Ireland to my “places I’ve been to” list, along with such places as Martinique in the French Carib.,.Tahiti, and, lest I forget…all of the United States except the Dakotas.

    BTW: Please don’t schedule your leaving the USA for next spring. I’ll be away visiting Europe again and won’t be able to help you pack up.

    I believe it was your brother, Forrest Gump who said, “stupid is as stupid does.” He was talking about you.

  122. Pch101 says:

    @john430:

    Familiar with LAX.

    So you’ve been to the airport.

    Here’s a tip for you: An LA local would not refer to the LA area as “LAX.” I have my doubts that you know anything about it that the tour bus driver didn’t tell you.

    I should remind you that lying is a mortal sin. Have fun down in the hot place. (Bring plenty of water, you’re going to need it.)

  123. john430 says:

    Coulda said SFO also but I find the airport acronym useful when flying into LA. Lived in San Francisco but everyone in the Bay Area refers to it as “The City”. Have friends in Santa Monica, Monrovia, Newport Beach and way down in La Jolla.

    Now, if you want to test my Bay Area knowledge, there’s San Rafael, Mount Tam, Daly City and on down to Palo Alto. In the City, my offices were on Sutter St. and home was in the Upper Market area.

    Ta ta!

  124. Pch101 says:

    @john430:

    You are more full of crap than the sewer line to my house.

  125. john430 says:

    @Pch101: LOL! Name-calling. The last resort of those who have run out of argument.

  126. Pch101 says:

    It’s pretty obvious that you never lived in either LA or San Francisco. (HInt: SFO is the airport, not the town.)

    For a supposed Catholic, you sure do lie a lot.

  127. john430 says:

    @Pch101: My final comment on this thread…

    You must be talking out of your arsehole because I’m sure your mouth knows better.