Risk, Reward, and Statecraft

President Biden's dangerous gambit seems to have succeeded.

In yesterday morning’s post on the Russia-Ukraine war at the one year mark, I expressed concern as to whether the propaganda* value of President Biden’s visit to Kyiv was worth the risk to his life going into a war zone entailed. We now have more information on both fronts.

WaPo (“Cloak-and-dagger moves allow Biden to sneak into Ukraine’s war zone“):

As President Biden stepped out of a golden-domed church during his unannounced, high-stakes trip to Kyiv — a city under regular bombardment from Russian forces — an air-raid siren abruptly went off, signaling that a Russian military jet armed with missiles had taken off from its home territory.

The plane ultimately did not pose a threat to Biden’s location; U.S. officials had tried to reduce the risks by taking the extraordinary step of informing Moscow of Biden’s planned visit ahead of time. But the shrill alarm was a reminder of the peril of an American president visiting a war-besieged capital in a region where military groups and mercenaries are not known for following the rules.

“There was still risk — and is still risk — in an endeavor like this,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, speaking by cellphone as he accompanied the president out of Ukraine on Monday. Among the striking features of the whirlwind visit was Biden’s use of a train that had been set aside for him to get in and out of Ukraine, a necessity given the dangers of traversing Ukrainian airspace.

Biden told his aides months ago he wanted to travel to Ukraine, but he only made the final decision on Friday after a last-minute huddle in the Oval Office and phone call with his national security cabinet, according to Jon Finer, Biden’s principal deputy national security adviser.

That decision set in motion a stealthy plan that involved a close hold on information, with just two journalists summoned that afternoon and told of the trip so they could prepare to be on it. They were told to watch for an email with the subject line “Arrival instructions for the golf tourney” that would provide further instructions.

Saturday evening appeared routine for the president, perhaps by design. He was slated to visit Poland to mark the Ukraine war’s first anniversary, but that trip was not scheduled to start until Monday. Biden and first lady Jill Biden attended Saturday night Mass at Georgetown University, visited an exhibit at the National Museum of American History and dined on rigatoni at the Red Hen, a trendy D.C. restaurant known for its pasta.

Just hours later, in the predawn darkness Sunday, Biden and his team boarded a small government aircraft and departed for the war zone. Only three White House officials accompanied the president: Sullivan; Jen O’Malley Dillon, the deputy chief of staff; and Annie Tomasini, director of Oval Office operations and one of Biden’s closest personal aides.

A small medical staff also came along, as did security officers and the official White House photographer — a bare-bones operation compared to the president’s usual entourage.

Rather than taking the large aircraft presidents usually use for their official travel, Biden boarded an Air Force C-32, which is generally utilized to fly into smaller airports. Before takeoff, the plane sat in the dark, its shades drawn, away from the tarmac where it is usually parked for presidential travel.

When the plane lifted off at 4:15 a.m., it kicked off a nearly 22-hour journey involving planes, motorcades and trains that would deliver Biden nearly 5,000 miles away in Kyiv for his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The trip exposed the commander in chief to security risks in a war zone where no U.S. troops are stationed. It represented a gamble that a dramatic gesture could help galvanize American support for the war, provide a shot of energy to the global coalition opposing Russia and raise the morale of Ukrainians themselves.

Despite the dangers, Biden and his inner circle had decided that the powerful image of Biden embracing Zelensky in the Ukrainian homeland was worth it. “President Biden felt that it was important to make this trip, because of the critical juncture that we find ourselves at as we approach the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine,” Sullivan said.

As the possibility of a visit gained momentum, U.S. and Ukrainian officials had kept in frequent contact to weigh the risks and strategize on how to mitigate them. “Obviously, this was all worked very closely between the White House and the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, who have become quite adept at hosting high level visitors — although not one quite like this,” Finer said.

After a refueling stop at Ramstein Air Base in Germany — where the plane’s shades were kept down during the hour-and-15-minute stop — Biden finally landed at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland. His motorcade drove about an hour to the Ukrainian border, with the sirens off to avoid drawing attention.

Upon arriving at Poland’s Przemysl Glowny train station, Biden boarded a train that was under heavy security and had few onlookers. The eight-car train rumbled through the Polish and Ukrainian countryside for more than 10 hours, mostly in the dark with little visible outside beyond streetlights and shadows, with a few brief stops to pick up additional security personnel.

It was not the way a president usually travels, but Ukrainian airspace has been shut down since the outset of the war, making trains an essential source of weapons, food, equipment and supplies for nearly a year. The tracks and vehicles have come under fire from Russian forces, but they have been quickly repaired by Ukrainian crews. A love of trains is part of Biden’s public image — he commuted on Amtrak throughout his 36 years in the U.S. Senate — but this rail trip was unlike any other.

On a typical trip, the stops often feature Ukrainian husbands and fathers saying long farewells to their families as they head off to combat. Closer to the border, Ukrainian soldiers scrutinize passports and overturn sleeper beds looking for deserters and stowaways. But with foreign leaders visiting during the war to show support, Ukrainian officials have become adept at transforming the trains for VIP use.

U.S. officials said the lack of American troops in Ukraine made this operation especially tricky. “Unlike previous visits from presidents to war zones like Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. obviously does not have a military presence on the ground in Ukraine, which made a visit from a sitting president all the more challenging,” said Kate Bedingfield, the White House communications director. “But this was a risk that Joe Biden wanted to take.”

Biden arrived at the Kyiv-Pasazhyrsky station in the Ukrainian capital at about 8 a.m. local time, as the city buzzed with rumors of a high-level visitor and numerous streets were blocked off by security. Biden, wearing a blue-and-yellow striped tie to showcase the colors of Ukraine’s flag, was greeted on arrival by Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

NYT (“Biden’s Surreal and Secretive Journey Into a War Zone“) adds:

In an audacious move meant to demonstrate American resolve to help Ukraine defeat the Russian forces that invaded a year ago this week, Mr. Biden traveled covertly to Kyiv to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky and promise even more weapons for the country’s defenders. The visit produced an indelible image of the two presidents striding to a memorial for fallen soldiers in broad daylight even as an air-raid siren blared, a show of defiance of Moscow quickly beamed around the world.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about U.S. support for Ukraine in the war,” Mr. Biden said during his five hours on the ground in Kyiv before leaving again. He was speaking, in effect, not just to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia but to fellow Americans back home doubting his decision to invest so deeply in Ukraine’s war. “It’s not just about freedom in Ukraine,” he said. “It’s about freedom of democracy at large.”

Never in Mr. Biden’s lifetime had a president ventured into a war zone that was not under the control of American forces, much less on a relatively slow-moving locomotive that would take nine and a half hours to reach its destination. During that time, he was potentially exposed to circumstances beyond the control of the hypervigilant security phalanx that normally seeks to shield a commander in chief from every conceivable physical danger and minimize his time outside a hardened shelter.

For much of the past year, in fact, most of the people around the president resisted any urge to go, on the assumption that it was too risky. But nearly a year after the Russian invasion, with Ukrainian troops faring far better than anyone expected at the start and other American and European leaders having made the trip, Mr. Biden and his team gambled that he could get in and out safely.

[…]

Since Abraham Lincoln rode to the front lines outside Washington to watch battles in Northern Virginia during the Civil War, no sitting president has gotten that close to combat. Franklin D. Roosevelt visited North Africa; Lyndon B. Johnson went to Vietnam; Bill Clinton toured the Balkans; George W. Bush and Barack Obama traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan; and Donald J. Trump went to Afghanistan.

But in all those cases, they went to countries or areas under control of American forces or after hostilities had eased. In this case, the United States military would not be present in Ukraine, nor would it control the airspace. American military planes were spotted hovering in eastern Poland near the border during the trip, but officials said they never entered Ukrainian airspace out of concern that it would be taken as the sort of direct American intervention that Mr. Biden has avoided.

[…]

During his five hours in the city, he met with Mr. Zelensky at Mariinsky Palace, joined him in laying a wreath at the Wall of Remembrance at St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery and stopped by the United States Embassy to meet with its staff.

Then he headed back to the same train station, departing at 1:10 p.m. On the long meandering train ride back to Poland, the senior official said the president issued a series of directions on military, economic and diplomatic areas to help Ukraine. He was seized with the meetings he had just had. Once again, he could not sleep much.

He arrived at the Przemyśl Główny station at 8:45 p.m. local time, and he headed back to the airport for a flight to Warsaw, where he will deliver a speech on Tuesday. His mind, aides said, remained on his last stop.

“Kyiv,” he had said before leaving, “has captured a part of my heart, I must say.”

So, the trip was in some ways simultaneously safer and much more dangerous than was my initial impression. I had assumed from the early reports that Biden had flown directly to Kyiv; that he spent hours both ways on a slow-moving train actually increased the risk considerably. At the same time, communicating the trip to leadership in Moscow likely mitigated the risk somewhat; a direct attack on the President would have turned a proxy war into a direct one. But, again, the whole country is an active war zone. There was a non-zero risk of the train being hit just during the normal course of events, with the poor battery commander ordering the strike completely oblivious to Biden’s presence.

At the same time, the propaganda value looks to have been more profound than it seemed to me at first. Yes, it was a show of defiance that bolstered morale among Ukrainians and signaled in a profound way to both the Ukrainians and our NATO allies the steadfastness of American commitment to the war. But its signaling value in Moscow may well have been more than I had expected.

The eminent security studies scholar Eliot Cohen declares “Biden Just Destroyed Putin’s Last Hope.”

The long-range missiles matter. So do the super-accurate artillery shells, the surface-to-air missiles, and the winter weather gear; the training in the English countryside or the muddy Grafenwöhr maneuver grounds; and the intelligence provided from the eyes in space and the ears on airplanes that circle outside the battle zone.

President Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv matters just as much as any of these.

Other heads of government preceded him, earning deserved credit. But it is an altogether different thing when the president of the United States—who is, indeed, the leader of the Free World—shows up. His words mattered. He pledged “our unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” And even more important, that the United States will stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes.”

Symbols matter: a Kennedy or a Reagan at the Berlin Wall, a Churchill with a cigar and a bowler, for that matter a green-clad Zelensky growling, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Simply by taking the hazardous trip to Kyiv, Biden made a strategic move of cardinal importance.

While the president clearly intended to bolster the confidence of Ukraine, and the commitment of ambivalent Europeans and neo-isolationist Americans, his real audiences lay elsewhere, as his remarks about Western strength indicated. Russia has cycled through a series of theories of victory in Ukraine—that Kyiv’s leaders would flee, that Ukraine’s population would not fight, that its army would be crumpled up by a sudden blitz or by grinding assaults. It has been reduced to one last hope: that Vladimir Putin’s will is stronger than Joe Biden’s. And Biden just said, by deed as well as word, “Oh no it’s not.”

This is a gut punch to Russia’s leader. The Russians received word of the trip, we are informed—and presumably the threat, stated or implied, that they would get a violent and overwhelming response if they attempted to interfere with it. For a leader obsessed with strength, like Putin, that is a blow. His own people will quietly or openly ask, “Why could we not prevent this?” And the answer, unstated, will have to be, “Because we were afraid.”

The visual contrast between an American president with his signature aviator sunglasses walking in sunny downtown Kyiv with the pugnacious and eloquent president of Ukraine and a Russian president who has yet to visit the war zone is also striking. Not to mention the difference between an American president who mingles with others, shaking hands, hugging and slapping backs, and a Russian president who keeps his subordinates at a physical distance, and who has to be surrounded by flunkies and actors when he supposedly meets with normal people. No belligerent words from the Kremlin will change those visual images, which will be seen in Russia as well as around the world.

This was not a stunt, but rather an act of statesmanship. Biden’s visit comes at a moment when much hangs in the balance. The Chinese have begun making noises about arming Russia, according to the United States government, which would be a very great change in this war. The Western allies, including the democracies of Asia, have begun mobilizing their military industries. The Russian offensives that were supposed to produce large gains timed to the anniversary of the invasion have instead carpeted the Donbas with the bodies of thousands of men who learned too late that, as one French World War I general put it, “fire kills.” And meanwhile, Ukraine is building up a force to use in its own counteroffensive.

The Russia-Ukraine war is not merely a humanitarian calamity, a monstrous collection of crimes against humanity, a gross violation of solemn agreements and international law. It is also a watershed, in which much will be determined about the future of the international system. It could lead to a very dark place, not different in kind from that of the 1930s and 1940s, if the dictators get their way. But if the liberal democracies unite and display the resolve, enterprise, and military capacity that they have shown before, that outcome can still be avoided.

To that end, nothing matters more than American leadership, the recovery of the prestige and weight that have been wasted or diffused over the past few decades. We are not near the conclusion of this war, and there is much of a tangible nature that needs to be done to bring the conflict closer to its end. Words and gestures are critical, but only when accompanied by deeds. But for now, by taking a bold step, President Biden has made the future for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the cause of freedom under the law a great deal brighter.

Granting that Cohen can be a bit overenthusiastic on the power of hawkishness in foreign policy, his point about the contrast between Biden’s boldness and Putin’s bunkering is a good one.

Daily Beast (“Putin’s Cronies: We Should Have Blown Up Biden in Kyiv“) takes us into the bizarre world of Russian television. If it’s indication, Biden’s thumbing his nose at the danger has struck a chord in Moscow.

In recent days, pundits and experts on Russian state television discussed the anticipated visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Poland, confidently asserting that he would never dare travel to war-torn Ukraine. The news that Biden spent Presidents Day in Kyiv, alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, hit the Kremlin’s mouthpieces like a ton of bricks.

Visibly unsettled, 60 Minutes host Olga Skabeeva announced, “The White House has confirmed that Biden really is in the Ukrainian capital. He really came to the Ukrainian capital. Zelensky just published the pictures… There he is, Biden, in the flesh.” The program then played footage of the smiling American president walking alongside Zelensky and shaking hands with Ukrainian officials. The clip was set to dramatic music more suitable for a horror movie.

The reactions in the studio matched the sinister music. Military expert Evgeny Buzhinsky surmised, “Clearly, the West is headed towards an escalation… I think we should also cautiously start to walk down a path of escalation… The West has many vulnerabilities.” Buzhinsky floated his ideas for attacking Americans in retaliation for their alleged involvement in blowing up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, proposing that Russia attack American pipelines at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, and the Norwegian Sea.

Unimpressed, Skabeeva interrupted, “At the same time, Americans seemingly assume that we aren’t planning to respond to anything, since they’re sending even their Biden to Ukraine.” She questioned the wisdom of Russia going along with the trip and purportedly agreeing not to strike Kyiv during the presidential visit: “If we gave these security guarantees, then what for?” Buzhinsky replied, “Well, you know, perhaps we could have whacked Biden, but it would have been too much.” Skabeeva retorted, “So it’s too much to whack Biden, but it’s OK to threaten Putin and it’s also fine to blow up the Nord Stream? It’s not about aggression, it’s about the logic: where is it?”

Buzhinsky didn’t object to the idea of killing the American president, as long as his replacement was more in line with Russia’s interests. He wasn’t comfortable with the thought of Vice President Kamala Harris at the helm, claiming that, unlike Biden, Harris would be completely unrestrained in her response to Russia and would present an even worse option for the Kremlin. As opposed to Skabeeva’s suggestion of assassinating Biden, he regretted that the U.S. president wasn’t at least terrorized during his trip. Buzhinsky daydreamed that if Biden traveled to Ukraine by helicopter, he would have been escorted by Russian planes all the way to Kyiv, leaving him with an indelible impression.

Irritated, Skabeeva pointed out, “Following your logic, if we’re not starting this confrontation because the replacement will be even worse, then why did we even start this at all? What if everything will only get worse?” She claimed that Biden is “promising to destroy and dismember the Russian Federation.” Buzhinsky stressed that the American president was not the first world leader to visit Kyiv, and Russia should have started by taking out former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson: “If we wanted to do this, we should have started much sooner.”

Buzhinsky tried to temper Skabeeva’s expectations by noting, “You’re constantly going to extremes, proposing we start with maximum measures: ‘Let’s waste Biden.’ There are also fans of proposing nuclear strikes against Washington, erasing Paris and London from the face of the earth. I’m not in agreement with this.”

Pointing to the photograph of Biden hugging Zelensky, Skabeeva bitterly interrupted, “I think this is the photo of the year… both of them are crying and are endlessly happy to see each other! As far as me resorting to extremes, I’m not for extreme measures. What I’m saying is that Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has been going on for a year and is far from reaching its goals. There is a huge number of deaths. The United States of America and the entire so-called collective West are acting as though we’re incapable of some kind of a retaliatory strike. We keep demonstrating our peacefulness.”

Buzhinsky suggested that Russia should start its retaliatory actions against the United States by striking Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service, launching a series of cyberattacks, and pulling out of the grain deal by refusing to renew it, since it is on the verge of expiration.

Dmitriy Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, grimly noted that Russia’s military humiliations were to blame for the current state of affairs: “A year went by. We’re paying for what happened last year during the fall… We’ve created this trampoline through our own mistakes… We’re anticipating that something will change, something will happen in the near future and it will be a very important factor. We are spending a lot on this, economically and politically… We should realize that there is a limited trust, because there already were attempts to change something. It’s very important that something starts happening. Otherwise, a long-term confrontation lasting more than a year is a totally different conflict.”

Pointing to a screen showing additional footage from Biden’s joint press conference with Zelensky, Skabeeva dryly noted, “This is the finest hour of the Ukrainian president.”

Political analyst Sergei Markov, who was reportedly a former advisor to Putin, was likewise unable to lighten up the mood. With a heavy sigh, Markov said, “I look at the sunny city of Kyiv… after junta usurped the power in 2014, I regret that we’ve been prohibited from visiting it. We hope that thanks to the Army of Russia, we’ll be able to come to our glorious city… to enjoy all the beauty that is currently being enjoyed by the leader of the occupation force, President of the United States Joe Biden… This is a huge victory for Biden. He largely cemented his own ability to run for another term in the next election.”

I’m generally skeptical of symbolic gestures of this sort, often quoting the late George Carlin’s admonition that “symbols are for the symbol-minded” (which, of course, plays as “simple-minded” delivered in a stand-up routine). Even those that land well at the moment—George W. Bush landing on an aircraft carrier in his flight suit with a “Mission Accomplished” banner in the backdrop comes to mind—can backfire.

How much any of this will matter in the longer term remains to be seen, of course. In the early going, though, the gamble seems to have paid off: Biden got in and out of the country safely and a big message was sent.

____________

*I was out of pocket all day after the early morning post but, as one reader rightly noted in the comments, I use the term in its neutral historical sense, a form of persuasion used to influence people’s attitudes, beliefs, and behavior, rather than as a perjorative. Indeed, as regular readers surely know, I heartily support the cause Biden is seeking to advance.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Kathy says:

    Several European leaders have visited Kyiv. I figured Biden eventually had to as well.

    If it upsets the Russians so much, maybe he should visit Kyiv more often.

    BTW, who’s been threatening Mad Vlad?

    4
  2. Scott says:

    Given the number of European heads of state and numerous other hi vis people (including Jill Biden) that have gone to Ukraine and back, it seems as though “dangerous” is overstating it.

    2
  3. Scott F. says:

    Granting that Cohen can be a bit overenthusiastic on the power of hawkishness in foreign policy, his point about the contrast between Biden’s boldness and Putin’s bunkering is a good one.

    I hadn’t really thought about how Biden’s visit would hit at Putin on a personal level, but for an alpha male like Vladimir this contrast in boldness v. bunkering must really hit him where it hurts. Maybe, properly goaded, Putin will visit the front and the Ukrainians could rid us of him.

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  4. steve says:

    After thinking about it I think it is pretty good timing. He is visiting at a time when Russia has made some small gains and when there is a need to accelerate arms to Ukraine. Gives Ukraine a bit of a morale boost and maybe spurs a bit more support.

    Steve

    1
  5. JKB says:

    Biden got in and out of the country safely and a big message was sent.

    Excellent. If there’s anything the Biden administration has shown, they are all about the messaging even as the reality is something totally different. KJP, when confronted about a reality is always saying “Our message is…” Perhaps the messaging will work…this time.

  6. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    *I was out of pocket all day after the early morning post but, as one reader rightly noted in the comments, I use the term in its neutral historical sense, a form of persuasion used to influence people’s attitudes, beliefs, and behavior, rather than as a perjorative. Indeed, as regular readers surely know, I heartily support the cause Biden is seeking to advance.

    LOL.

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  7. CSK says:

    Trump is defending Putin. He claims his personal relationship with Vlad would have prevented the invasion of Ukraine.

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  8. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @JKB:

    “…even as the reality is something totally different.”

    Please enlighten us. What is the reality that is totally different?

    8
  9. Sleeping Dog says:

    Of course interstate trade, travel, and state relations would continue.

    So you think Marge. Oh and you’ll need your on military.

    Oops, wrong thread

  10. MarkedMan says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl: Oh, why encourage a Trump fan?

    1
  11. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    Irritated, Skabeeva pointed out, “Following your logic, if we’re not starting this confrontation because the replacement will be even worse, then why did we even start this at all? What if everything will only get worse?”

    Indeed, Olga, that is the question. Sadly I don’t believe that you’re allowed to say things like that on the air*.

    I would not be surprised to find Olga the victim of a tragic car/pedestrian accident in the ensuing days. 🙁

    *I assume that Russia’s 60 Minutes, although scripted, is not scripted in the same sense that, say, a WWE interview or ringside mini drama is.

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  12. Scott says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    I would not be surprised to find Olga the victim of a tragic car/pedestrian accident in the ensuing days.

    Oh, is 10th story window jumps only reserved for important Russian figures?

    4
  13. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    I’ll just repeat what I said yesterday;

    A sitting President visiting an active war zone shows strength and resolve and a big pair of attachments.

    Again, I never wanted Biden to run, and I don’t want him to run again. But the fact remains that the GOP, and it’s loser rubes like JKB, are butt-hurt because their golden idols cannot even pretend to possess the statesmanship, the character, the principles, and yes, the courage that Biden shows on a regular basis.

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  14. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @MarkedMan:
    JKB lacks the wherewithal to form a coherent response, until he runs to Fox News and sees what he is supposed to say.

    5
  15. EddieInCA says:

    If Biden were 55 years old instead of 80, we’d be talking about his accomplishments in historical terms. Infrastructure programs, jobs, getting inflation under control, deficit, etc, are all trending in the right direction.

    This trip was a masterstroke. It was brilliant.

    He deserves respect.

    The irony is that the more success Biden gets, the further into the arms of the Russians the GOP chooses to go. MTG, Gaetz, and Jordan all had very pro-Russian comments about Biden’s trip, and Carlson, Hannity and Ingrahm have lost their minds over it; including Tucker claiming the air raid sirens were staged. But the fact is that they’re clearly pushing the Russian propaganda over US interests. I don’t get how these people still have a following. Gods, Gays, Guns can’t explain this. Or can it in a way I’m missing?

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  16. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    Off topic…except that the topic is Biden;

    BERLIN, Feb 21 (Reuters) – Tesla has paused plans to produce entire batteries in Brandenburg, Germany, and will instead carry out some production steps in the United States where tax incentives are more favourable, the Brandenburg economy ministry said on Tuesday.

    Thanks, Brandon!!!

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  17. James Joyner says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl: Is it your contention that I’ve been unsupportive of our efforts in Ukraine?

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  18. reid says:

    Gods, Gays, Guns can’t explain this. Or can it in a way I’m missing?

    It all makes sense when you realize that the Republicans have to oppose the evil Democrats on everything, even standing up for our country.

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  19. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @James Joyner:
    My contention remains as it was yesterday; your use of “propaganda” and “publicity stunt” was not neutral.

    3
  20. MarkedMan says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl: Funny, I definitely read “propaganda” in its military sense. But you seem to think James is somehow anti-Ukraine war and so read it in the negative sense?

    3
  21. EddieInCA says:

    @MarkedMan:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    Dr. Joyner is not wrong. It was propaganda: Propaganda is the dissemination of information—facts, arguments, rumours, half-truths, or lies—to influence public opinion.

    And it was a publicity stunt: A publicity stunt is something unusual that is done to attract people’s attention to a particular person, product, or organization: “Biden’s trip to Ukraine was a publicity stunt”.

    How are either of those comments “anti-Ukraine”?

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  22. Andy says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    My contention remains as it was yesterday; your use of “propaganda” and “publicity stunt” was not neutral.

    So what? By what standard or reasoning does James’ comments or posts have to be neutral in your particular eyes? Are your comments “neutral?” Can we criticize you for a lack of neutrality in your word choice? Because if we can, then the rest of us here can probably tone-police most every comment you write here.

    The gist of what he was saying was pretty clear IMO, and if it wasn’t clear for you, then the polite thing to do is ask for clarification instead of leaping to an uncharitable interpretation.

    5
  23. Andy says:

    After catching up on the trip, I disagree taking the train was more dangerous and think the train was probably safer. By flying you would have to assume that every Ukrainian air defense operator got the word to not fire at this particular blip and while the defensive systems on board a Presidential aircraft are good, they are not that good.

    And the Russian Air Defense systems cover most of Ukrainian airspace at high altitude, so you’d either have to assume the Russians operators wouldn’t fire on it, or do what the Ukrainians do and fly in at low altitude which creates another set of problems.

    A train, by contrast, has much less to worry about – mainly a Russian logistics strike, which the administration stopped from being a consideration by informing Moscow.

    As for Eliot Cohen, he is really drinking the kool-aid by inventing a psychological profile of Putin and then conveniently and self-assuredly explaining how this visit affected that profile. I’m sure the Russians and Putin weren’t happy about the visit, but this notion that the visit is/was a “gut punch” is a characterization that only exists in Cohen’s mind.

    And this is just stupid:

    The long-range missiles matter. So do the super-accurate artillery shells, the surface-to-air missiles, and the winter weather gear; the training in the English countryside or the muddy Grafenwöhr maneuver grounds; and the intelligence provided from the eyes in space and the ears on airplanes that circle outside the battle zone.

    President Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv matters just as much as any of these.

    If you asked Ukrainians whether they would rather have weapons to use in the war or a one-day visit by the US President, they would choose the former. Equating them is beyond silly.

    And the idea that Biden’s visit will historically compare with famous historical figures is – at best – premature. Churchill flew to France for meetings five times in 1940 before the French fell – trips he’s barely remembered for because they ultimately didn’t matter to the outcome.

    4
  24. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @Andy:
    Please point to where I have used pejorative terms and then turned around and made the dubious claim of neutrality.

    2
  25. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @EddieInCA:
    Never said they were anti-Ukraine.
    They were clearly anti-Biden/Harris.

    4
  26. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @MarkedMan:
    Again…never said a word about James being anti-Ukraine.
    https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/russia-ukraine-war-at-one-year/#comment-2776676

    1
  27. Sleeping Dog says:

    ‘Treason!’ Wagner boss slams Russia’s military leaders

    Whatever effect Biden’s trip had on Putin, his inner circle is forming a circular firing squad.

    5
  28. DK says:

    @JKB:

    If there’s anything the Biden administration has shown, they are all about the messaging even as the reality is something totally different.

    Reality: Trump lost in 2020 because he’s a traitor, an incompent failure, a morally bankrupt bigot, a pervert, a thug, a drama queen, and a patholgical liar. Fox News and conservative media grifters knew Treason Trump’s sore loser election lies were false. They messaged those lies anyway, knowing the gullible idiots who populate modern American conservatism would fall for it.

    Something different: Trump lost because of a nationwide conspiracy of mass voter fraud, even while other Republicans made gains on the same ballots.

    I’m guessing nobody with brains and decency is taking seriously anything radical right extremists have to say about reality and messaging.

    11
  29. James Joyner says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    They were clearly anti-Biden/Harris.

    I’ve by and large been pretty charitable to Biden for years, going back to at least the 2008 primaries when I was defending him from silly attacks for complimenting Barack Obama in a slightly awkward way and favorably contrasting Obama’s choice of him as VP with McCain’s choice of Palin. I supported him in the 2020 primaries as the candidate who could most beat Trump and, of course, in the 2020 general against Trump. And, given the parameters—a woman of color—thought Harris far and away the obvious choice.

    I’ve applauded parts and opposed parts of his domestic policy. I’ve by and large applauded his Ukraine policy, with a quibble here and there. But, yes, I was skeptical that a photo op was worth risking the life of the President.

    As to Harris, she’s the least qualified by experience VP—and the biggest dropoff from the POTUS—since Dan Quayle. She hasn’t done much to distinguish herself since taking office. So, yes, the fact that she’s the backup plan if something happens to Biden—the most qualified POTUS since GHW Bush—should be factored into these calculations.

    3
  30. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Scott: No, I was just thinking that “falling out of windows” has become a cliche.

    1
  31. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @EddieInCA: Serious comment (though it’s not going to sound like it to some here): Some number of conservatives are so sold on the notion of “government by our betters” (typically measured economically in the US) that they see their only hope of avoiding living in a “socialist hell hole”* is to be able to receive largess from a patron. It’s the Horatio Alger model writ large–Ragged Dick didn’t actually become successful by his own efforts as much as by a rich capitalist of the era smiling on him and providing him with opportunities to succeed that others didn’t get.

    *And the problem with living in a socialist hell hole is that means that the n/s/b/w downstream gets the same box, curtain rod and fire to grill his sparrow on that you have. A TOTALLY UNSATISFACTORY OUTCOME IN EVERY WAY!

    2
  32. Kathy says:

    @Scott:
    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Doesn’t Microsoft charge outrageous royalties for defenestration?

    1
  33. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl: Sure. But Dr. Joyner is still a Republican in the dark night of his soul no matter who he votes for now or in the future. Even his comment downstream to yours noting that he’s been “pretty charitable to Biden” speaks to that reality louder than he realizes. That Dr. J. is going to damn Biden (and especially Harris) with faint praise is simply part of the admission price to a more intelligent version of still conservative commentary than even actual “reasonably intelligent” conservative outlets (as in not Red State, The Gateway Pundit, etc.) will offer.

    2
  34. Gustopher says:

    @EddieInCA:

    The irony is that the more success Biden gets, the further into the arms of the Russians the GOP chooses to go. MTG, Gaetz, and Jordan all had very pro-Russian comments about Biden’s trip, and Carlson, Hannity and Ingrahm have lost their minds over it; including Tucker claiming the air raid sirens were staged. But the fact is that they’re clearly pushing the Russian propaganda over US interests. I don’t get how these people still have a following. Gods, Gays, Guns can’t explain this. Or can it in a way I’m missing?

    (Emphasis added)

    Putin hates gays. That’s why the right wing loves him.

    He’s a Good Christian who supports traditional values and opposes the woke mind virus.

    That’s God and Gays right there.

    Attacking Ukraine might qualify for Guns, if he were doing better at it. I assume Guns has morphed from a simple desire for personal gun ownership to the fantasy of possessing and using the power to force your will on your enemies.

    5
  35. Gustopher says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    clearly anti-Biden/Harris

    There was a swipe at Harris, but hating the VP has been an American Tradition going back at least until the Eisenhower administration.

    Harris would be a perfectly adequate caretaker president if Biden died.

    (Unless her blackness and herness caused the Republicans in the House to blow up the economy rather than just threatening to blow up the economy, but that’s more on them then her)

    4
  36. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @James Joyner:
    I truly appreciate your comment.
    This trip was far more than just “propaganda” and a “publicity stunt” and that deserves to be acknowledged. Biden’s trip was brave, constructive…even necessary…as freedom and autocracy are engaged in battle both in Ukraine and right here at home.

    4
  37. JohnSF says:

    @JKB:
    When it comes to matters of war, very often the message is an important, if secondary, part of the reality.
    If you fail to grasp that, I might recommend a short history of the Second World War for remedial reading.

    4
  38. Andy says:

    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    Please point to where I have used pejorative terms and then turned around and made the dubious claim of neutrality.

    I never said you used pejorative terms, I said you made an uncharitable interpretation of what JJ actually wrote. And you’re the one who is complaining that JJ’s words weren’t “neutral” whatever that means.

    1
  39. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @Gustopher:

    Harris would be a perfectly adequate caretaker president if Biden died.

    Not to engage in “whataboutism”…but Pence? OK…not much of a drop-off from Trump, lol. But given the unnecessary HIV deaths in Indiana that he oversaw, and the unnecessary COVID deaths he and Trump oversaw, I can’t imagine if he ever became President.

  40. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    @Andy:

    And you’re the one who is complaining that JJ’s words weren’t “neutral” whatever that means.

    Ask him – he claimed neutrality.
    I take his latest comment at it’s word.

  41. JohnSF says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:
    @Scott:
    You know, a thought that has occasionally taken to trotting through the vacant caverns of my mind lately: are all the window cleanings that have happened actually to be tallied on the Russian account?
    There’s at least one other party who might have motivation for defenestation, in some cases.
    The SBU have developed a bit of a reputation for making their displeasure known in very direct and final manner.

  42. CSK says:

    @Gustopher:
    And Putin is an alleged strongman. Don’t forget that.

    1
  43. JohnSF says:

    Incidentally, anyone care to guess who is in Kyiv today?
    Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, that’s who.
    Poor old Vova, can’t even get the “post-fascists” on side these days.
    Meloni promises additional SAMP-T anti-missile systems, Skyguard anti-aircraft systems and Spike ATGW.

    Interestingly, accounts say that old creep Berlusconi, whose Forza Italia party is in coalition with the Fratteli, (Meloni’s party) is at least still rather favourably disposed to his old pal Putin, having blamed Ukraine and Zelensky for the invasion a week ago.
    Indicates Meloni feels herself strong enough to stamp on Berlusconi’s corns.

    And she is more interested in showing hers claim to be a serious leader to the Italian establishment, and to key international partners, than in playing domestic populist games in competition with Silvio.

    4
  44. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Yes, it was a show of defiance that bolstered morale among Ukrainians and signaled in a profound way to both the Ukrainians and our NATO allies the steadfastness of American commitment to Ukraine.

    FTFY James. It is not a commitment to war, it is a commitment to Ukraine, in peace or war.

    2
  45. Cheryl Rofer says:

    On the safety of Ukrainian trains:

    Trains have been the way that heads of state have gotten into and out of Ukraine. Not airplanes.

    Exactly how this is done is not clear, because it is being kept secret so that it is secure. How they do this is going to be one of the great stories after the war. Apparently the trip starts in Poland.

    Here’s a thread with as much as the head of Ukrainian railways is saying right now.

    https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1627957152408125440

    They have been doing a remarkable job keeping the trains running, but the disruption of this special train brought down the on-times to 90% of the schedule.

  46. gVOR08 says:

    Yesterday I saw one picture of Biden on the train. The car was fitted out as a luxurious conference room. I would surmise it might be a presidential car Zelensky inherited from the previous regime. In which case I’d expect it to be armored.

  47. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Gustopher:

    morphed from a simple desire for personal gun ownership to the fantasy of possessing and using the power to force your will on your enemies.*

    And here I thought that desire was baked in to the 2nd A. Shoz whut I kno.

    *and your black human (at least sort of) resources/property

  48. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Gustopher: If they wouldn’t do it if she weren’t a nKKKLAAAANNNGGG, then it’s on her, completely. (But they probably would do it just for spite, so maybe not completely. [confused emoji])

  49. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @JohnSF: If histories of the Second World War were published after about 1920, I doubt that his lending library has copies of any. Just a guess, you understand.

  50. Michael Reynolds says:

    A great many otherwise intelligent people are having a very hard time accepting what should be obvious: Biden is a very good president. Great waits the next act and history’s judgment, but he is so far the best president of my lifetime. Ageism and long-held judgments about Biden are clouding people’s judgment. Not since the Cuban Missile Crisis has a President done as much damage to Russia as Joe Biden has. And I can’t think of a case where a narrative of national decline has been turned around faster.

    Yeah, he’s old. He’s very old. He’s also pretty fucking good and maybe even great. I am proud of him, proud he’s my president.

    9
  51. Michael Reynolds says:

    @One American:
    It is clear now, unmistakable, from their own texts, their own words, that Fox News lied to you. Lied. To you, not me, because you are the target audience for these lies. They lied to you for profit. You are a consumer of lies, and they are your supplier.

    Wow. You must be pretty pissed to have them lie, and lie. . . right? Because you don’t like being lied to. Right? I mean, what kind of person finds he’s been tricked and is just fine with it? A toady? A bootlick? An empty person without a core?

    But no, you don’t mind being used, do you? You like being lied to. You need those lies. Without lies, what have you got? Gotta have the lies to feed the hate, gotta have the hate to disguise the weakness and fear.

    8
  52. anjin-san says:

    There are people in every time & every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of a comfortable past which, in fact, never existed.

    Robert F. Kennedy

    1
  53. al Ameda says:

    @JKB:

    If there’s anything the Biden administration has shown, they are all about the messaging even as the reality is something totally different.

    The reality is that Biden has: (1) steadfastly supported the Ukraine against Russian aggression, and (2) strengthened and expanded the NATO Alliance. As a result the Ukraine has fought the Russian to a standstill.

    So, exactly how is Biden’s message divorced from the reality in the Ukraine and in Europe?

    Or maybe you prefer today’s general Republican approach of branding our support for the Ukraine as unnecessary and too costly. You know, the Neville Chamberlain messaging.