The Five Reddest States

Pursuant to a comment on my post about the potential for an electoral college sweep, I expanded my pool of GOP-no-matter-what-states to five to include Alaska and Idaho, which are actually better cases for my argument than Oklahoma (although OK certainly fits).

While one will readily acknowledge that past performance is not indicative of future outcomes, these are five states that, no matter who is nominated, will go Republican in 2012 and likely will be in that position well into the future.

There are no comparable Democratic states over the same period of time, unless one counts DC, which is undeniably a guaranteed win for the Democrats. 

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In regards to 2012, there are a number of other states that also will almost certainly go GOP no matter who is nominated, but they do not have the same long-term electoral profiles as those in the table.  Specifically for 2012 I would easily include Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas as very reliable Republican wins regardless of nominee.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Davebo says:

    What else do all these states have in common?

    Other than a net gain of federal dollars versus taxes paid.

  2. Stan25 says:

    There is no way that anyone from any deep blue state will move to Wyoming in the mass numbers needed to change the demographics in the near term. Besides, people have to wait a year to be able to register to vote here. Especially, people from New York. They think that we are very backwards here. I don’t look for California going red anytime soon either. The DemocRATs have that sewn up for the foreseeable future. The only way that would change in a hurry, is if the San Andreas Fault took a cataclysmic turn for the worst.

  3. David K. says:

    “DemocRATs”

    Thanks for saving me the time of considering your opinion Stan25. Ask yourself how well you’d respond to someone who used ReTHUGlicans in their post?

  4. An Interested Party says:

    They think that we are very backwards here.

    Well, if you are representative of the people there, it is little wonder others might think you are backwards…I mean, when you use terms like “DemocRATs” or talk about the San Andreas Fault taking a cataclysmic turn for the worst to help turn California red…

  5. Bleev K says:

    They think that we are very backwards here.

    Read your post over and over, you may understand why.

  6. Davebo says:

    There is no way that anyone from any deep blue state will move to Wyoming in the mass numbers needed to change the demographics

    Which means Wyoming will continue to be a net drag on our economy. It’s a shame that such a beautiful part of the country has such a net drain on it’s people but I suppose that, and you, are the price we have to pay.

  7. MM says:

    Shorter Stan25: I find it offensive that DimoKKKRats refuse to engage me in adult conversations.

  8. superdestroyer says:

    DAvebo,

    Actually Wyoming is a net contributor to the national economy. Wyoming actually produces things such as minerals and energy. Blue states like Maryland, Mass, or New Jersey specialize is moving money or text around.

  9. ptfe says:

    Right, so back to the topic at hand: I think it’s interesting that the highwater mark here seems to be 1988, when 3 of the 5 hit their peaks and Dukakis (!) was running. Not even a midterm Clinton could beat the AK numbers for that year, despite facing a pretty plain Bob Dole.

    Carry on.

  10. Right, so back to the topic at hand

    Such a concept! 😉