The Polls Are Skewed!
Survey research is not without flaws. But we dismiss it at our peril.
In the comments section of Sunday’s post on the NYT/Siena poll showing former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of six key swing states and in various other fora, I saw quite a few smart folks arguing that the poll was some sort of manufactured click-bait designed to further an anti-Biden narrative. LGM’s Paul Campos pushes back, hard:
One thing people really need to get over is the conspiratorial nonsense that something like this poll is some sort of dishonest attempt to make Biden look bad and Trump look good. Polls have their limitations to put it mildly, but high quality professional efforts like this one do provide a useful high level look at what voters are thinking about a year out from the next presidential election. And what an extremely large percentage of the American public is thinking is certifiably insane
This is followed by calling out some man on the street quotes from the piece with withering commentary. While I don’t see much value at critiquing the thinking of randos’ musing about politics, I agree with him that average Americans seem to place too much emphasis in their Presidential voting decisions on matters over which Presidents have very little control and under-weigh those things actually within the powers of the office.
In the comments on Sunday’s post, @Andy argued that “the focus of elites (and most of the people here on this blog) is different from most Americans.” He points to the Gallup “Most Important Problem” survey, which shows the economy in general (16%), the high cost of living/inflation (9%), the government/poor leadership (18%), and immigration (13%) as the issues most Americans identify. Conversely, hot-button social issues like race relations (3%), guns (3%), abortion (1%), and LGBT rights (1%) are simply not big priorities, leading Andy to conclude “the left wing of the Democratic party is out of step on these issues with the majority of Americans.”
While I would argue that the dominant wing of the GOP is further out of step with the general public on many of these issues, I would agree that Trump and other prominent Republicans are definitely hammering the “most important” issues harder than Biden and the Democrats. And it seems to be working, at least for now:
That Gallup polls “most important problem” monthly and “best party” roughly annually is rather odd. Regardless, the Republicans were leading rather widely on this in September.
It’s noteworthy that they were leading by a slightly larger margin in September 2022 and went on to underperform in the midterms. Then again, I’m not sure that comparison is useful. Senatorial races, in particular, are rather idiosyncratic because they often feature candidates who are untested at the statewide level (indeed, often first-time political candidates). Trump and Biden are much more established brands.
There are plenty of reasons to question the value of opinion polls conducted for the purposes of generating horse race coverage, let alone those conducted a year out from the election. Among other things, it has gotten harder than ever get an accurate sample of respondents, requiring pollsters to weigh their sample results based on past results. More importantly, they can skew the outcomes by creating a sense of inevitability or, worse, fuel conspiracy theories in races where the outcome didn’t match the polling.
But I agree with Campos that there is no conspiracy by the major media outlets to make Biden look bad and prop up Trump. Given how closely it matches other polls, I think it gives us a reasonable view of where the American public is at a moment in time.
Biden is unpopular even within the context of a polarized environment where roughly 40% of the populace will be against him no matter what. Democrats, including key demographics (women, Blacks, Hispanics, the youth) who typically heavily skew toward the party, are less than enthusiastic about another Biden term. That’s borne out in poll after poll and focus group after focus group. And it’s worth knowing.
Does it mean Trump is likely to win next November. Not at all. Indeed, if I had to bet, I’d bet Biden is re-elected rather comfortably. But we should absolutely be aware that Trump could win and that a huge chunk of the population,* for a whole variety of reasons, are simply don’t see Trump in the same way that the posters and most of the commentators here do.
_________________
*Based on eight years of polling and the results of two national elections, I’d put his floor at 45%.
The Biden team’s own internal polls show the same thing, which also helps kill the idea that this is some vast right wing conspiracy
Good post. I definitely don’t think it’s a conspiracy, and if anything I am less confident in Biden’s re-election.
I do wonder if pollsters have overcorrected somewhat. In 2016 and especially 2020, the big polling misses were attributed to a segment of Trump voters being “low trust,” while activist Democrats were picking up the phone to show they were “doing something.” But core Trump supporters now have a strong incentive to respond to pollsters, as their guy faces literal prison if he cannot become President again. And more generally, supporters of an unpopular incumbent would have good reason to not answer polls, even if they are going to vote.
The conspiracy, such as it might be, isn’t the polling, it is the constant hammering of the meme that EVERYONE is unhappy with Biden. No context is offered re such questions as “direction of the country.”Poll respondents may believe Republicans in the House are monkey-wrenching the future, but “direction of the country” problems are imputed to unhappiness with Biden.
Biden is vulnerable, and yes–even to Trump. While there are always questions about specific aspects of polling (the weight put on landlines is a big one), one should assume that reputable polling organizations are conducting polls with care and with the intent to actually understand the landscape as it stands.
Frankly, I’m a bit terrified. I do hope there are multiple all hands on deck meetings happening to deploy surrogates who will resonate with the electorate.
The options are all bad. Replacing Biden with Kamala Harris is a non-starter. Leapfrogging Gavin Newsom over Harris to the top spot is also a non-starter. Dean Phillips: non-starter.
Polling has been off for the past few years. From 2016 onward, there have been weird, unpredicted outcomes in every election cycle. To the point where I would just increase the margin of error to the point where the numbers are meaningless.
But, the polls do show likely areas of vulnerability. And Biden is vulnerable.
I think a lot of persuadable people aren’t seeing Trump very often, and he’s sort of faded into “generic Republican, but loud,” and there’s a good chance that a lot of Biden’s electoral problems fix themselves when people look at the alternative. But this might just be a lie I tell myself to get through the day (I recommend a bit of self-protecting delusion)
Unfortunately, that has been the case for as long as I’ve been politically aware. It’s a factor that can’t be ignored.
It’s worth noting that as extreme as parts of the GoP are, Trump is actually much more moderate on some key policy issues like social security and abortion. He’s always been against messing with SS and rejecting the Ryan wing of the GOP. And while Trump enabled the appointments that ended Roe, he doesn’t back a national abortion ban and criticized DeSantis for Florida’s ban. Now, I don’t think that is going to make him popular with women, but it undercuts two issues that benefit Democrats and could ease concerns of some low-information and cross-pressured voters.
I’m not so sure. I think there is a lot of uncertainty and therefore it’s important not to take anything for granted. And if, as you theorize, that Trump’s floor is 45%, then he only needs 2-3% to win if he can do well in the states that are competitive. And those are the states where Biden is currently struggling.
Finally the recent bad polling for Biden showed a drop right after the Hamas massacre. Israel/ME policy has obviously divided Democrats and a non-trivial number do not like what Biden is doing. Chances are that this won’t be a major issue a year from now, but all things considered, it hurts Biden when Democrats are so divided and attacking each other.
And then there is Biden’s age. Yes, I know everyone here thinks Trump’s age and health is worse, and that is probably correct. But the reality is that most people can see how Biden behaves like an old man much more than Trump does. Again, the vast majority of Americans are not seeing the arguments made here and other elite spaces – they see with their own eyes how each looks and behaves and have come to the conclusion that Biden has the mannerisms of an old man and that concerns them. Considering a non-trivial number of Democrats also hold this view, it’s a problem that can’t be ignored. Unfortunately, it’s also a problem that can’t be addressed except perhaps by Biden stepping down which he doesn’t want to do.
I think it’s a mistake to bury one’s head in the sand on this – it’s important to understand the risks that a couple of “senior moments” could be enough to sway the likely small number of voters needed to swing the election toward Trump. Many commenters here seem unable to understand how anyone could vote for Trump because of that, but this is emblematic of how atypical we are as political hobbyists compared to the median voter.
As a queer person, it’s my duty to silently and cheerfully accept being abused until straight people decide my life matters, because I’m an out of touch elite /sarc
@Stormy Dragon: If anything, I would think you’d be more acutely aware of the reality on the ground of LGBTQ issues than most of us. My sense is that 1) it doesn’t drive all that many votes, especially among persuadables and 2) to the extent it does, it’s doing so in the other direction—likely partly explaining the migration of Black and, especially, Hispanic men into the GOP camp.
@James Joyner:
Part of the problem in a lot of minority rights issues the Democrats want to create a political ratchet where the Republicans get in office and push explicitly anti-minority laws but when the Democrats get in office they just maintain the status quo because they don’t want to be “out of touch”.
If things can only ever get worse for me, what’s the point?
I’m just speculating here, but I suspect the constant “Democrats in Disarray” and “Why The Good News Is Actually Bad for Biden” headlines have more to do with clicks than with bias. For years now I’ve noticed that when I go back to my regular news sources the headlines for the same story may have changed. I assume this is because many headlines are tried, either AI generated or by Editor, and those that have the most hits for my demographic group are promoted. But this implies something else: that the stories themselves are influenced by what gets the most clicks. I was just on a tour of the Baltimore Banner’s newsroom last week and there were a number of monitors that showed the most popular stories in order, with the unique clicks prominently displayed next to them and constantly updating. The reporters and editors can’t help but see what makes it to the top and given that these are humans, they will, intentionally or not, adapt their stories to drive higher up the list.
This is not to say there is no cause for alarm, because this creates a feedback loop, and a very negative one at that.
In 2015, my brother in law told me that Trump was ahead in the primary in his state, and I thought that the American people are simply not that crazy. Election night 2016, I took my dog for a long walk, and on my return I heard that the news media were calling the election. I was sure that Hillary had won.
A neighbor who is my age was bemoaning the crime these days with special reference to car thefts. When I pointed out that car thefts were about half the rate when we were young in the 1960s, he simply didn’t believe me.
Simple facts, Trump is an idiot and there is no unique crime wave, don’t matter. Don’t dismiss the polls.
@Stormy Dragon:
And this is the opposite of what’s happened over the past two decades. The rachet is going in the other direction.
Biden is probably the President who has supported minority rights – especially for your minority – more than any other President in history. He’s demonstrated his bona fides, even if you don’t think he’s gone far enough.
But the political realities are what they are. The election will be a binary choice. Even if you think Biden hasn’t done enough for you, consider the alternative. The smart play is to let Biden be strategic for the election so that he can win.
@Andy:
I think that as the campaign actually starts up, people will see Trump for the first time in 4 years, and see that he really is an old, feeble man.
You don’t see Trump much these days outside of the … uh … semi-concerned-with-politics bubble, and people remember Trump as the 2016 riding down the elevator Trump, when the reality is that he is 8 years older, and makes less sense when he speaks. They’re in for a rude awakening. The “he’s too old” complaint will likely even out.
That said, there’s also a decent chance that the race gets turned on its head when one or both candidates die of being really old. Because they are too old.
Where is the adrenochrome of a dozen 12 year old boys when you need it?
My hope is that evidence and testimony in the many trials Benito will face, will have the effect of increasing Biden’s turnout. All in accordance to Heinlein’s Electoral Principle: there may not be a candidate worth voting for, but surely there is one worth voting against.
@Andy: There’s no ratchet. But things have been heading in a generally positive direction over the last 60 years. There’s a backlash right now, but I don’t think it holds.
(That’s little comfort to queer kids right now, whose entire politically awake life has been during that backlash, and especially the trans kids who are being denied healthcare — but big picture, generally good)
And Biden has been good on LGBTQ+ rights. I remember him getting ahead of the Obama Administration on marriage equality. But there’s a mix of only so much a President can do, and how much priority can be spent on a very tiny minority.
@Gustopher:
Might be true! And it might not be true! Hoping that will be true might be all that can be done at this point, but the fact we’re reduced to hope isn’t very comforting.
I think this is probably the most likely thing to hurt Trump. And it will be very distracting for him to spend time in court while also trying to campaign.
@MarkedMan:
Often, there are different headlines in the article itself than in the search optimization title that appears at the top. (Indeed, I did this for awhile at OTB as I was trying to drive traffic for ad revenue.) So, for example, the title memeorandum or even YahooNews shows me is often different than the one on the article itself.
But to your larger point: Yes, the polls are being run almost entirely to generate clicks on the articles about said polls. But, no, I don’t think the poll results are being intentionally manipulated to produce more interesting stories.
@Gustopher:
Totally agree, which is why I don’t think Biden should spend a ton of campaign capital on it.
@Stormy Dragon: The cognitive bias in the face of 3 decades of change where queerness went from being an awkward joke of the Seinfield era to entirely normalised (even by population statistics rather over-represented in media, with positive spin in contrast to historical negative/awkward) with gay marriage legal, general expansion of protections at the national levels….
really quite extraordinary.
Compare with actual full out losses and roll backs (see Russia, e.g.) – not merely getting more gains – you face in threat from the reactionary movement that Trump channels…. quite extraordinary the blindness to the extraordinary gains, in speed and depth.
@Andy:
Indeed the political reality is that the opposite choice has clearly shown a penchant for retrograde reaction and likely a 2nd round focused on score-settling with opposition, and pleasing his part of the crowd, the MAGA reaction certainly brings real risk of actual loss -not merely falling short of maximalist demands on change, deserved, merited or not.
It rather makes me think of the unlearned lessons of “a Bridge Too Far” – defence and consolidation after gains are not moral failures, they are strategic choices to lay a foundation for future gains, rather than coutning on political élan to carry you through return fire.
@Andy:
it is in the interest of all to smartly spend political capital on winning the margins in Swing States. Reduction of loss among culturally conservative working class illustratively, regain could shore up to a win on the razor margins in those States. I retain the lessons of No National Election….
Bartels and Achen’s Democracy for Realists is, among other things, a book length, data driven, exposition of the conventional wisdom that a) the electorate are a box of rocks, b) policy doesn’t matter, and c) people vote based on some feeling of tribal affiliation. One may ask how any reasonable person can feel an attachment to a tribe defined by a constant screw up like Trump and repellant looney tunes like MAGA Johnson. First, see a) above. This morning Paul Campos at LGM runs through a list of the appeals of fascism from Robert Paxton’s The Anatomy of Fascism. You can see each operating in the MAGA and their fellow travelers.
Polls have, indeed, become less reliable for all the reasons usually listed. The “fundamentals models” favor Biden. And tonight we’re going to get a bunch of actual election results. I’ve been pretty sanguine about Biden’s reelection. Incumbency, our habit of reelecting presidents, a good economy, that 2020 was largely driven by revulsion to Trump. If Beshear wins in KY and abortion rights pass in OH I’ll feel better about ’24. And if not, not.
In any case: Biden is old, there’s unlikely to be a ticker tape parade down the streets of Kyiv or Tel Aviv, and Jay Powell wants a recession in the worst way and may have succeeded.
@Gustopher:
Things were on an upswing until 2020 or so, but have been going the wrong way since. And while Biden hasn’t been one if them, a disturbing number of Democrats seem fine with it and keep advocating selling out queer people imagining it will lure bigots back to the party.
And it’s not even a progressive vs moderate thing, as there’s a growing problem with homophobia and transphobia in the “tankie” community
@Gustopher: No, polling statistically has not been off as a general matter for a mathematical understanding of probabilities.
Rather (a) general innumeracy and lack of understanding of statistics and statistical chances and (b) the increasingly narrow margins in elections in the USA where narrow State level margins in key places make margins of error rather visible combine to the false understanding.
However, as numeracy and literacy in mathematical probabilities is limited and comes hard to humans regardless, the impression is unchangeable.
I think the thing to remember is that at baseline party numbers are fairly evenly split. That means stuff like the economy and crime can be decisive. Inflation was bad for a while and it does seem likely we have at least a brief recession. Crime concerns may be overblown but people rely upon perceptions more than reality. Anyway, I think there is a very good chance Trump wins and if we have a repeat of 2016 where people assume he cant possibly win so they dont vote he likely wins again. Chances increase if focus is on the issues that dont matter the most to people.
Steve
@Andy:
There’s no such thing as political capital. Campaign capital, marginally, but once you have the office of the Presidency… you can do many things at once. Trump’s team learned this, for better and worse.
The limits are calendar time in the Senate (non-issue with a Republican House), and mainstream media attention (and not everything needs that)
Every day the right wing is talking about Hunter Biden is a day this administration didn’t do anything particularly noteworthy and it’s a waste.
Give me a flurry of executive orders on cutting federal funding to schools that don’t do LGBTQ+ this, to expanding the ObamaCare enrollment window, to something about asylum seekers at the border, to tightened environmental regulations on some chemical I’ve never heard of, to a new basketball court in Indiana built under the infrastructure plan, to releasing cheese supply to combat inflation or something, to a hundred more judges nominated and confirmed, to affirmative action for adoption of cats (no idea how that works), and maybe something on guns traveling on interstate highways just to toss a little red meat to the antigun crowd.
A flurry of activity, some meaningful and important, others not so much. And a few can be LGBTQ+ protecting executive orders.
@steve:
The question then seems to be: is it worth the stress for the next year to play up Benito’s chances, to make sure people stay engaged and afraid and vote against him?
@steve:
I definitely think there’s a nontrivial chance Trump wins again.
But a repeat of 2016-level overconfidence about his defeat? I’ll tell you the chances of that happening again: zero. It is absolutely, 100% quantum-certain that a lot more people will take the possibility of a Trump victory seriously than was the case in 2016. They already are, and that’s not going to change.
There seems to be a collective amnesia about just how complacent people were in 2016. It was almost pathological, so that the night he was elected it was downright surreal to a lot of people, like suddenly discovering that those end-of-the-world preachers are correct as fireballs start descending from the sky.
It wasn’t just the polls. That’s one of the biggest myths about that election. Contrary to popular belief, the 2016 polls were off by a mild and unremarkable amount well in line with past polling error in presidential elections–in fact, in 2012 the polls underestimated Obama by a comparable amount. The difference is that most people were able to wrap their heads around the idea of Obama winning reelection. It was confirmation bias, plain and simple.
And one tendency since 2016 that has continually driven me up the wall is a particular style of finger-wagging commentary of pretending that most people learned absolutely nothing from the 2016 upset and are eternally stuck in a Trump-can’t-possibly-win mindset, like Vizzini forever shouting “Inconceivable!” I was seeing it constantly throughout the 2020 cycle–pieces that said things like “The conventional wisdom is that Biden has this in the bag, but people said the same thing about Hillary, and look what happened.” I saw those kinds of admonitions way more than I saw anyone actually reassuring people that Biden had the election in the bag. And it seemed that anyone who made the analytical assessment that Biden was likely to win would be invariably accused of 2016-level complacency, which it wasn’t.
In fact, in both the 2020 cycle and this one so far, I’ve seen far more panicky, bed-wetting, doomsaying than I’ve seen anyone actually claiming we’ve gotten nothing to worry about. The shock of 2016 is marked in most people’s souls, and it’s simply delusional to pretend otherwise.
And therein lies a challenge. The trans kids is causing a rift with the Gs and Ls starting to see the T movement as a direct threat to gay kids. Many being bum-rushed into hormone therapy and surgery by activist officials are kids who would have simply come to realize they were gay. Don’t take my word, I’ve heard such from Dave Rubin, Andrew Sullivan and Douglas Murray.
@JKB:
None of this is happening. This is laughable.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
“Look, a lot of those uppity n***** are causing a rift in the civil rights community. Good law abiding folk are starting to see them as a threat to their kids. But don’t take my word for it, I’ve even heard such things from George Wallace.”
So my step son (30ish) had a little get together of his from High School over the weekend at our condo (we are still in the old home town). It as him, his girlfriend, and three of his friends. the talk sure turned to politics and all of these people are liberal-ish. They all have gay and trans friends and are arty types. To a person they all agreed that the economy was “in bad shape”. They all expressed concerns about Biden’s age and the discussion all seemed very “ripped from the headlines”.
The funny part is my wife and I know these people, we are Facebook friends with all of then and I happen to know that as of 2021 every single one of them was unemployed. Today they are all employed at jobs with heath care and two of them had been recently promoted.
So I asked the question … you are all doing a lot better then you were in 2021 so why is it you think the economy sucks. Not one of them could really articulate why they felt the way they did. However, everyone of them confessed that if Trump is on the ballot there were all going to defiantly vote for Biden. The bonus was that all of them except for my Stepsons girlfriend voted for Jill Stein in 2016 so as not to have to admit they voted for Hillary Clinton.
These media impressions do have an effect.
@JKB:
No one is immune , I mean everyone is pushing one of these media created narratives like the one JKB just favored us with.
@JKB:
Tell us you don’t understand the concept of selection bias without telling us you don’t understand the concept of selection bias.
But given that the majority of your understanding of Black Culture and the “problems with it” comes from the work of folks like Thomas Sowell and the late, great Herman Cain, at least you’re consistent.
Maybe, just maybe, your personal political and social beliefs are coloring your opinions on who we should “take seriously” within a given demographic group.
@James Joyner: Just to be clear, I don’t think the polls are being deliberately skewed. But I do think articles in general are being written with a negative bent because it attracts more clicks. This isn’t limited to Biden or even politics. I look at Slate.com a couple of times a week and the headlines are almost uniformly negative, regardless of what they are about. The few that aren’t negative are at best neutral. To a lesser extent this is true in many publications. Of the ones I read regularly, The Atlantic spins negative the least (but still does it a lot), then the NYTimes, then the Post. The Post is most likely to have an article, “You Are Trying to Do This Good Thing. Here’s Why It Is Worthless And We Are All Doomed.”
@Stormy Dragon:
The two things off the top of my head that I can think of are the passage of RFMA, which officially repealed DOMA, and the Bostock decision by a conservative SCOTUS. Those are not insignificant or going the wrong way IMO.
@Gustopher:
My point is that a campaign has to have priorities, and those priorities ought to align with the goal of getting elected.
@JKB:
You are gullible and prone to believing anything that confirms your own biases. Let me be clear: THIS. IS. NOT. HAPPENING.
If you want to be taken seriously by anyone, stop regurgitating nonsense like this. Your first sign this is utter horsesh!t is the “being bum-rushed into surgery by activist officials.” That is not how medical care or treatment works. At all. FFS, JKB.
@Andy: it’s a Presidency as much as a campaign. And if the right wing is complaining about Hunter Biden, or Major, or Commander, rather than a proposed union election rule, that Presidency and Campaign has wasted a day.
Priorities matter, but pretty much everything has a higher priority than nothing.
@JKB: There is some transphobia and actual, active anti-trans bias in the garden variety homosexual community (“drag queens are fabulous, but the people who do it every day… eww”), but — and this is a massive but — basically no one thinks the right wing will stop at trans people.
There is simply no way to throw trans folks under the bus that will stop the bus.
Instead, it’s far more akin to the George W. Bush “flypaper theory” — we fight them over there (on the trans turf) so we don’t have to fight them here (where our rights are more directly impacted).
I get that you want to split the 30-50% of the LGB folks who are transphobic from the rest, but it’s wishcasting. You get the Log Cabin Republicans and that’s it. You already had them even when you were talking about attacking them.
If anything the ferocity of the attacks is pushing people together.
A few days ago, you posted about the Jewish support for Black civil rights in the 60s. You had your own weird (((antisemitic))) take on it with the Jews controlling the Democrats and keeping them from going full pro-slavery, but you were also right that they stepped up. It wasn’t because they weren’t bigoted on their own, but because they recognized the common enemy. Same with the garden variety homosexual today.
——
In case anyone is wondering if “garden variety homosexual” is a term of derision, it is. Not massive derision, but a little bit. Don’t trust anyone who’s only interested in one gender and defines themselves that way — straight, gay, lesbian… they’re all a little sus, defining themselves by what they aren’t. Kids today are better, with their 10,000 ridiculous labels that they agonize over (“am I pan, bi, Omni, Demi-pan?”) and then lumping themselves under Queer or LGBTQ+ or some larger term.
@Gustopher: The right has long used a divide-and-conquer strategy by trying to turn one minority group against another, which is always a possibility because among every minority group there are some who hold bigoted views against other groups. (There is also self-directed bigotry–and I believe Dave Rubin is one example when it comes to gay men–but that’s another conversation.) It reminds me of how back in 2012 after Obama announced he supported same-sex marriage, there were several pundits predicting it would hurt him in the African American community. It didn’t, but the fear that it would was probably a factor in why Dems (including Obama) had been timid on the issue in the past.
@Gustopher:
“Nothing” is not what I’m advocating.
@MarkedMan:My, less cynical, take is that the overwhelming number of editors and reporters at these places are Democrats absolutely frightened by the prospect of Trump’s return. Every negative poll or prediction of economic decline is give outsized attention because it fuels that fear.
@James Joyner:
Another way to look at our competing views: “Do the negative articles make it onto the home page because of the Editors biases?” vs. “Do the negative articles remain on the home page and work their way up because they are clicked?” Hmmm. Not really competing. Both could be true.
FWIW, I don’t consider my take to be cynical in the slightest. I think it is perfectly natural for writers and editors to want more people to view their work. The way we measure that nowadays is “clicks”. I suppose it used to be “letters to the editor”.
@Andy:
Even though queer rights have improved on paper, there’s also been a massive increase in hate crimes directed at queer people since 2017, even as violent crime as a whole decreased, so we’re getting much less physically safe.
Queer people are currently nine times more likely to be the victim of a violent hate crime than non-queer people:
https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/lgbt-hate-crimes-press-release/
I’d just like to add that the only “officials” who have any say about gender-affirming-care for children are the conservative ones who are trying to stop it. This is a decision that, under current law, is left to parents and doctors.
Doctors are generally cautious enough about it that it frustrates trans people, who wonder why they can’t just be taken at their word and get on with it.
Of course, it’s a huge world, and their could be someone somewhere that made a strong recommendation that turned out badly. That happens with every single medical treatment ever conceived.
Thank god the election is 12 months away.
Republicans are very effective in defining Biden and Democrats. Republicans are justbetterat this politics thing. I think the Biden Team is well-advised to counter the Republican talking point machine at every level – never let this sh*t go unanswered.
What is amazing to to me is that Republicans have created, out of nothing except a random Drag Queen Story Hour, a new and effective Culture War Talking Point. They also resurrected and expanded on an old favorite – that gays and progressives are using public schools to ‘groom’ and influence children to become LGTBQ.
@JKB:
The more I’ve thought about this nonsense the angrier I’ve gotten. You’re there shooting your fool mouth off about shit you don’t comprehend or even have the slightest bit of willingness to learn.
I’m sitting here dealing with a crush PTSD attack because I’ve spent my whole ass life getting told I should exist because of assholes like you. I wish I could share this PTSD with you. I would rejoice in watching you buckle, you weak brained slime.
But I can’t. The only satisfaction I get is knowing that if your political partisans get control next year, I have the money to escape, you’ll be crushed under their boots as they laugh at you.
@gVOR10:
Looks like I can go to bed happy.
@Beth:
Hey sorry to read that you’re dealing with those additional feelings. It’s a lot to be carrying during challenging times.
@Beth: no added comment, just backing you up.