Trump Fatigue
Fighting a cult of personality is exhausting.
NYT (“Anti-Trump Burnout: The Resistance Says It’s Exhausted“):
In 2017 they donned pink hats to march on Washington, registering their fury with Donald J. Trump by the hundreds of thousands.
Then they flipped the House from Republican control, won the presidency and secured a surprisingly strong showing in the 2022 midterm elections, galvanized by their conviction that Mr. Trump and his allies constituted a national emergency.
This year, anti-Trump voters are grappling with another powerful sentiment: exhaustion.
“Some folks are burned out on outrage,” said Rebecca Lee Funk, the Washington-based founder of the Outrage, a progressive activism group and a purveyor of resistance-era apparel. “People are tired. I think last election we were desperate to get Trump out of office, and folks were willing to rally around that singular call to action. And this election feels different.”
But for Democrats, the mission is similar: Now defending the White House, President Biden is trying to reassemble that sprawling anti-Trump coalition, casting the 2024 contest as another battle to save American democracy as Mr. Trump moves toward the Republican nomination.
Mr. Biden, however, has a lot of work to do. Interviews with nearly two dozen Democratic voters, activists and officials make clear his challenge in energizing Americans who are unenthusiastic about a likely 2020 rematch, are worried about his age, and, in some cases, are struggling to sustain the searing anger toward Mr. Trump that Democrats have relied on for nearly a decade.
“We’re kind of, like, crises-ed out,” said Shannon Caseber, 36, a security guard in Pittsburgh who called the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch a “dumpster fire.” She added, “It’s crisis fatigue, for sure.”
Ms. Caseber, a Democrat who would back Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump, added, “Any sense of urgency that we had with the 2020 election — I think it’s still there in the sense that no one wants Trump to be president, at least for Democrats, but it’s exhausting.”
Democrats are hardly alone in their political fatigue: A Pew Research Center survey last year found that 65 percent of Americans said they always or often felt exhausted when they thought about politics.
“Exhaustion is underlying the entire attitude toward our presidential election,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “When you’ve got two people that are opposed by 70 percent of Americans who want a different choice, it creates frustration, anxiety and discouragement.”
CNN (“High-profile Republicans head for the exits amid House GOP dysfunction“):
House Republicans were shocked by some of the recent high-profile retirements announced by their colleagues, which have included powerful committee chairs and rising stars inside the GOP.
But given the miserable state of affairs inside the House right now, they also weren’t exactly surprised.
Attention CNN: Hire some competent copyeditors, please.
“They’ve signed up to do serious things. And we’re not doing serious things,” said Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado, a conservative who is retiring after bucking his party on several key issues.
Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, a moderate who represents a key swing seat, pointed to his party’s struggle to govern as driving the departures.
“When you’re divided in your own conference, the joy of the job is harder,” Bacon told CNN. “When you have folks on your own team with their knives out, it makes it less enjoyable.”
And Rep. Carlos Gimenez of Florida, an ally of deposed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said this is not how he or many of his colleagues imagined life in the majority, saying, “I thought that some of our members would be smarter.”
“A lot of us are frustrated with what’s going on, and that’s just being flat-out honest,” he told CNN. “It’s foolish. And it’s been proven to be foolish. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
As the 118th Congress has been dominated by deep dysfunction and bitter divisions inside the GOP, a number of Republicans – particularly from the so-called governing wing – are heading for the exits. So far, 23 GOP lawmakers have decided to not seek reelection or resigned early, including five committee chairs, though some have cited personal reasons or are seeking higher office.
Still, the caliber and timing of some of the retirements has raised alarm bells, particularly those who are giving up coveted committee gavels that some work their whole career to achieve.
Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington is not even term-limited yet in her plum post, while China select committee Chair Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, a 39-year-old who was once seen as the future of the party, recently announced he was leaving Congress after facing intense blowback for voting against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
And on the Energy and Commerce Committee alone – a highly sought-after assignment – there are eight Republicans who are retiring.
“Those are big losses for us,” said Rep. Greg Pence of Indiana, who is among the members on the panel hanging up his voting card. “It is alarming. Especially for the institutional knowledge … So, that’s a big deal.”
The wave of retirements is rattling some of the Republicans who are choosing to stick around and fueling concern about a potential brain drain as more senior members decide to leave and take their wealth of institutional knowledge with them.
“You get this panic and anxiety like, ‘OK, who’s going to step up? Is this a normal thing that happens every few years, or is it actually abnormal?’” said Rep. August Pfluger of Texas. “So, yeah, I’m very worried about it.”
Others, however, said the turnover is completely normal, especially since the House GOP has self-imposed term limits for chairs, which they argued allows them to inject new blood into the ranks. Democrats have also seen their fair share in retirements this cycle as they have been relegated to the minority. Plus, the Republicans calling it quits so far are not from competitive districts, meaning their seats are likely safe.
“Look, it hasn’t been pleasant, there’s no question about that,” veteran Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said of the past year. “But we have a lot of great young members, and I’ve looked at a lot of the recruits coming in, and I’m not too worried.”
And Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, whose rabble-rousing behavior is being partly blamed for the turbulence in the House, even seemed to relish in the departures of some of his colleagues.
“Brain drain? Why don’t you survey the country and see if there is any brain to drain in Congress. Congress has a 20% approval rating. Most of what we do to the country is bad,” Good told CNN. “I think the retirements are a wonderful thing … I have no concerns, zero concerns. We probably need a few more retirements.”
McCarthy – who resigned at the end of last year – suggested that was perhaps the goal of hard-liners like Good and GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida who voted to oust him.
“It’s unfortunate because you think of the brain trust you are losing. I blame a lot of the ‘crazy eights’ led by Gaetz. They want to make this place dysfunctional to try to wear people out,” McCarthy said, speaking to reporters in the Capitol recently. “It’s very sad … It makes it more difficult for getting people to run in the current climate.”
While seemingly unrelated, these reports seem rather obviously an indicator that the crazies—who are a minority in the Republican-leaning population (if not its nominating electorate) and, certainly, the citizenry writ large—are winning. They have seemingly unrelenting energy and willingness to absorb the anger of those frustrated that nothing is getting done. Meanwhile, their opponents are exhausted.
Former President Trump is clearly the unifying factor here. The cult of personality surrounding him has galvanized the nominating electorate to vote out “normal” Republican candidates. Those who wish to have careers in Republican politics, then, are forced to bend the knee. And, since only roughly 5 percent of House seats are even competitive on a partisan basis, switching to the Democratic Party is not a viable option. (Not to mention that even the most moderate Republicans would get trounced in a Democratic primary.)
Meanwhile, Democrats and #NeverTrump Republicans (who are, for reasons already noted, effectively Democrats or non-voters), are exhausted. It takes a lot of energy to continue to fight the crazies. And, even when we win, the result is merely the ability to stop truly insane policies from passing. With rare exceptions able to be passed through Reconciliation, our governing structures allow the crazies to stop the passage of any Democratic policy initiatives. It’s basically a pie-eating contest in which the prize is more pie.
This all reminds me of the American experience supporting counterinsurgency and counterterrorism fights. We can have tactical success after tactical success after tactical sense and still lose the “war” because we eventually get exhausted of the fight.
If we’re exhausted, why is it the GOP House facing an exodus and not the Democrats? And why does the DNC have more than twice the cash-on-hand of the RNC? And why have polls which showed Trump with a steady 5-7 point lead now show a dead heat? Why does today’s Texas poll show Trump at 48% and not a number north of 50%? And why do Dems keep winning elections?
Something here does not compute. This feels like a media-manufactured narrative.
One of the weaknesses of fascists is that they don’t want merely to be obeyed, but they demand to be loved and respected.
It isn’t enough to fear Big Brother you must love him.
The entire MAGA appeal is not to some concrete policy desire like lower taxes or increased freedom.
They are a cult of grievance, against a society that doesn’t afford them the proper respect they feel they are due.
Refusing to give them that frustrates their tactics and weakens their appeal.
Schizophrenia. Republicans have spent decades building a party to represent the interests of plutocrat funders with a faux populist front needed to attract the votes of the naive. What the hell did they think was going to happen. “For they have sown the wind…”.
And no, none of them signed up to do serious things. Buck himself, per WIKI, is an election denier, opposed COVID measures, denies AGW, supports guns, etc.
@Chip Daniels:
Coupled with alliance to the glibertarian Billionaire Boys Club who not only want to grab every nickel in the country, but expect us to admire them for it.
The good news is the cure for Lardass Fatigue is as simple as putting the source of the disease behind bars for a few years.
@Michael Reynolds: “Something here does not compute. This feels like a media-manufactured narrative.”
It’s the FTFNYFT.
When I saw the headline here, I was thinking of a different type of fatigue: Likely Republican voters who are not super-engaged MAGAs, i.e. most Republican voters, getting tired of Trump’s drama queen ways, and their MAGA friends rants.
Fingers crossed.
I laugh every time I see that mugshot. Poor Trump. He thought he was looking intimidating, but he just comes off as a petulant jerk.
Unfortunately, you’re going to get more people like Marjorie Green Bean stepping up. All the half-witted angry nuts are finding “hey, this is my kind of party!” I’m not clear if Republicans will ever recover; what happens when Trump (whether elected this fall or not) passes away?
This is similar to the firehose of falsehoods propaganda effect that exhausts people trying to find the truth to the point where they give up
@Michael Reynolds: I read about half the article and it just screamed “clickbait.” They spent the entire run-up to Suozzi’s election bemoaning how the Republican’s laser-focus on the horrors of the border were all-but guaranteed not only to give her a double-digit victory, but ensure that Republicans would retake the House in the fall.
If they can’t publish “Dems in disarray,” it seems there’s no point to their existence…
This is a trend story. Which means it doesn’t mean much. The facts it reports are of the nature of “somebody I never heard of before said something that confirms the priors of the reporter”.
If you think this is exhausting what was fighting the actual Nazis and the Imperial Japanese like? It was even more exhausting, but we (America, not me) did it, and we didn’t have to contend with trend stories about how exhausting it was.
@Erik:
I enjoyed Matt B. accusing me of that when people change the subject and I debunk them again.
Mueller investigation: The Walls are Closing In. This is the beginning of the End.
@Mister Bluster:
Here some copy editors…
Hear, hear.
Can someone make this guy go away?
[Edit: Not CSK]
@Paul L.:
Do you have a wife? Kids? Do you explain to them that Jesus chose a rapist to fight wokeness? Do they ask you why it’s OK for a former president to rape? To rape and then viciously defame his victim? All of that is fine with you? What if it was your wife, or kids?
Look how far you’ve fallen. Look where you are, man. You’re a pimp for a rapist shoe salesman.
In fairness, Trump did say that we’d get tired of all the winning.
@MarkedMan: We can’t make him go away, but the only person forcing you to read him is you. Maybe you could practice skipping over people whose posts annoy you. On the internet, that skill can be really valuable.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Yep, and I do skip over his posts and any that are marked as replies. But I do find it annoying when an otherwise interesting thread goes down the rabbit hole. For instance, I noticed today that the Trump Sneaker Boy thread had 15 or 20 new posts and I thought something interesting must have happened. Instead I scrolled down through all the new entries and all but one or two were his nonsense or replies to it.
@MarkedMan:
Yes. Don’t feed him, don’t wind him up.
In the “good old days cannot last forever” category, I was thinking back to that period of time when Usenet was a wonderful place, i.e. it hadn’t become the cesspit of spammers, haters, and trolls that wrecked it, when you could use a reader app and mark a person as invisible to you. After that, any post they made or the replies to them never even appeared in the feed. In a given group, ninety per cent of the feed could be overwhelmed by yet another “Mac vs. PC” war instigated and spurred on by a troll, but as long as they stayed in a single thread, I would be blissfully unaware, receiving only the posts that were actually about the topic the group was created for.
Keep in mind, IMO, the so-called MSM is kind of cowed by decades of conservative criticism, so they tend to subtly shade their reporting to Trump’s benefit. The horse race, etc.
I still think Trump is going to be the nominee, but the legal sh*t storm seems to wearing on him lately, and his ‘gold sneakers’ rally was worthy of the ‘Caine Mutiny’ and Bogart’s ‘strawberries’ dissembling.
But … Haley, if she can maintain the fund raising, is smart to stay in. I think she has a decent long shot chance to be there if Trump actually implodes enough to scare say 10-15 percent of MAGAnauts into believing that the sneaker ship is sinking. If Trump’s polling drops to 40% … dot dot dot.
I do think there is an element of truth in this. With Trump it’s such a high volume of lies and BS. It is so far out of our norms that we just dont have a good way to deal with it. If he throws out 10 lies a day we just pick one or two to worry about. It just becomes “Trump lied again” and the response is just “of course he did.”
Steve
@MarkedMan: Tastes differ, but for me, he’s more a comic relief kind of read. I read, say “what?” and then shake my head at the ludicrousness of it all.
ETA (next post down): I never was a Usenet person and I was able to avoid most of the Mac vs. PC debate by having Apple products landing outside my budget at the time.
@steve:
Bannon’s “flood the zone” tactics are short-term effective, have to give him that.
@Paul L.:
Paul, I didn’t accuse you of doing it. I simply pointed out that you are doing it. That’s a fact. It might not be your intent, but it is your impact. And yes, the “Firehose of Falsehoods” is essentially the same as the “Gish Gallop.”
Also, on the intent versus impact thing, your intent apparently is to “debunk,” and I’ll take that at face value. However, your posts are so clipped, often wrong or drawing incorrect conclusions from the presented facts. Often, they are based on a “gotcha” type of find a single quote to demonstrate someone’s hypocrisy (while never applying the same rules to yourself or the people you support). And you rarely accept factual corrections (and never do that without moving goal posts).
And then you jump to another topic.
All of that, again, is textbook Gish Gallop (intentional or not). And it’s rarely, if ever, an actual “debunking” of the underlying argument. Which, again, makes it a Gish Gallop and exactly the type of wearing doing that James is alluding to in the post.
Heck, what you did here is EXACTLY that as, in a response to your posting, I’ve already expended more good-faith energy (not to mention words) than you did across all of your comments on this blog. Which is part of the “prove my ridiculous comment correct” strategy (intentional or not).
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Oddly, using and watching Usenet’s arc was instrumental in forming a number of my world views – “Nothing remains the same so enjoy it while it’s good and look for the next thing before its time has passed,” “A few nasty people can wreck a whole neighborhood”, “Without moderators and editors everything turns to shit”. But the Mac vs PC thing – man, I got a bunch of lessons from that. The “people” (usually just one person waving 2 or 3 puppets) who initiated these arguments probably had no interest in either platform, but just wanted to see how much they could disrupt any group, no matter what it was about. I learned a lot about how trolls worked and how they could effectively grind even a large group to a halt with very little effort. And I learned that there is nothing that can prevent them from being successful, that people simply can’t help themselves from responding when they are provoked. I’d be actively reading, say, the Interactive Fiction group, and someone would reply to a post about “I’m having difficulty writing an ending to my piece” with, “Well that’s because you use a PC. You should really use a Mac.” (Or vice versa. Didn’t matter.) 5-10 of us would immediately jump in. “This isn’t a real person! This is a troll! They are only trying to get you angry! Don’t reply!” But then the recipient had to say, “It’s just an editor, what difference does it make? You don’t seem to understand how this works”, and pat themselves on the back for putting that guy in their place. To which the troll, wearing another hand puppet would say, “Well sure, but the real problem is that PC users are less imaginative than Mac users, and that’s why you are having trouble.” And it was all over. The group would be useless for hours or even days.
Trump is a total and complete failure at everything in his life, and people like CSK and Paul continue to simp for this loser.
He’s a business failure.
He’s a marketing failure.
He’s a family failure.
He’s not even good at politics.. Republicans have lost every election under his “leadership” , and will continue to lose as long as this laughable loser is the face of the R.
This NYT column just smacks of the authors saying “We, the NYT staff, really want jobs at Fox News for their increased dental coverage.”
I do give Trump and the coverage of him credit for this, though…. Trump and the [unwilling] negative coverage of evil policies he continued from prior administrations shined light on many places where D and R elites attempted to not change bc it was benefiting both of them. An example is outsourcing — That carrier plant is still in Mexico rather than Indiana by the way.
So.. Perhaps this column is actually NYT employees saying “Golly, doing our real job of reporting fact rather than trite stupidity is tiring, and we’d rather go back to the nonsense.”
@Gavin:
Uh, Gavin, if you’ve followed my comments at all, even sporadically, you’ll know that I have never, once, said anything remotely good or approving about Donald Trump.
I am at an utter loss that you would think I “simp” for Donald Trump. The kindest explanation is that you’ve mistaken me for someone else.
@CSK: Must be confusing you with another three initials poster…
One might prefer pieces like this one:
After a bad legal week for Trump (sic), even worse could be on the horizon
If only because such cheerful headlines tend to be so rare.
@MarkedMan:
I suppose one might confuse JBK with CSK. But not if one is an attentive reader.
@CSK: (ETA:)
Trump does seem to take up a lot of space in your comments. It would be easy to mistake all of that rent-free living in your head for simping. It would be wrong, but still, it’s an easy mistake to make.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
If you’re referring to me, I freely admit to being rabidly anti-Trump, and I do admit to devoting most of my comments to him. But I don’t feel that I’m obsessive in my concern that he might win this November. This is a major concern for all of us.
@CSK:
I’m sure we all want him to lose in November, and finally go the fu*k away to whatever cesspit spawned him. Or prison. They’re both good.
It seems we are starting to see history repeating itself.
– Trump and his allies are flooding the zone while his opponents try to fact-check and debunk all of it.
– Trump’s opponents are frequently divided, making collective action more difficult. Everyone expects everyone else to compromise principles and policy to fight Trump.
– We know from history that the media benefits financially from Trump and Trump coverage, and the media is currently hurting very badly. The incentives to stoke things will be very difficult to resist.
– All of Trump’s legal issues are newsworthy and will keep him in the news if his big mouth does not.
There’s a reason I keep harping on six swing states and the need for Biden and Democrats to do what is necessary to win them. To do that requires picking the right targets and picking the right fights, and probably sacrificing a few pawns. I can only hope Biden’s team is and will be focused on that more than loud DC-based activist groups.
@Andy:
Who? And how?
@Andy:
Like what and whom, exactly?
Please note the sharp distinction between “it’s exhausting” and “we give up”.
The downsides of a second Trump administration are clearer than ever. Yes, fighting the plutocrat disinformation machine and the Round Mound of Fascist Fanfronade is exhausting — but I see no evidence that the troops are flagging.
@DeD: if you have to ask, it’s you.
@MarkedMan:
and
@DeD:
Dunno, that is a potential that would come out of an analysis of the relevant contests and the development of a winning strategy. Strategy involves choices, and choices inevitably come with tradeoffs. Ultimately, you can’t please everyone.
@Andy: Andy, what you are implying is that there is some group or groups that Belden needs to sacrifice. Why don’t you want to come out and say what groups? It’s all very easy to invoke some ambiguous, “he needs to sacrifice pawns”, but that’s just sloganism. If he’s going to do it, he needs to sacrifice real people. Who should it be? And how?
@Gustopher:
How cute.
@MarkedMan:
The point is he needs to do what is necessary to win.
All I’m suggesting is that it might entail some difficult political choices to make that happen. And it’s probably going to require some constituencies to suck it up and hold their tongues for the greater good. Which ones? I don’t know, I have not done the analysis and that’s not my job. That is what the campaign should be doing. But it’s foolish to pretend Biden can please everyone, given the diversity of Americans and what is the median position on any particular issue in the swing states.
We all agree that Trump needs to be defeated, correct? Well, the question is what various parties and factions are willing to sacrifice or compromise on, even rhetorically, for the greater good to make that happen. And the collective action problem is that the incentives are for them all to prioritize defeating Trump behind their own pet interests, especially for the loudest activists.
This gets back to Biden (or any campaign) not being able to please everyone. So, the analysis needs to, IMO, look at the competitive states in play and prioritize the interests and constituencies that will win those states. And whatever interests and constituencies don’t get prioritized – the “sacrificed pawns” if you will – you do your best to reassure them in private that you have their back and promise to make amends once the election is over. But what you don’t do is let the tail wag the dog.
@DeD: You know it’s Blacks, Latinos, and/or Queer folk. It’s always Blacks, Latinos and Queer folk. Sometimes immigrants, Muslims or someone else will be added for spice, but it’s always Black, Latino and Queer folk.
White, working class men are just uncomfortable with pace of change in this country. Why public lynchings aren’t even a thing anymore! Sure, some nonbinary kid was beaten to death in a school bathroom in Oklahoma, but what the hell is a nonbinary? How are white folks supposed to know who they’re better than with all this change and economic anxiety? You’ve gotta give them time and have patience, and eventually someone will forget to treat you like shit because they’ve got something else on their mind, and won’t that be a good day?
It’s your own fault for voting for Democrats 90% of the time. Your vote isn’t going anywhere, so there’s no reason not to shit on you to try to get a couple of straight white votes. (Queer folks are likely as much of a monolith as Black folks in the voting booth, so our fault too!)
I’m not sure that’s what @Andy meant with his comment, but it’s what always happens when people start thinking that way. Republicans demonize some group, and then Democrats try to not look that group in the eye, trying to balance appealing to the center with supporting that group, and end up making a few mealy mouthed defenses that somehow just make the guy in the center think that Democrats want to give all the boys in America sex changes and then force them to have abortions and listen to rap music, while the minority under attack just continues to get attacked.
I wish the Democrats would grow a spine, stop trying to triangulate and figure out how to throw minorities under a smaller bus, and just give a full throated defense of freedom and equality. Freedom and equality means that people get to do things you don’t like, and you can’t discriminate against them — whether it’s being black, sleeping with people you don’t approve of, or listening to country music.
And if that means Democrats lose, then maybe that’s fine. Republicans are on a path to fuck shit up so badly that even comfortable straight white folks in square states will feel some of the pain.
Our systems and processes that maintain the status quo are stretched near the breaking point — for the past few decades, there has been no consequence to supporting the craziest racist motherfucker on the ballot. I blame the filibuster — it creates do-nothing congresses and if nothing is getting done anyway, why not vote for a lunatic who hates the people you hate? But our ruling class has learned how to weasel a lot of things around the filibuster of late, or through the courts, or just done them administratively, so its not the guardrail for the status quo that it once was.
Sometimes you have to let people touch the hot pot and get burned so they learn that pots on the stove are hot.
@DeD:
Fans on the sidelines often like to think we know better than the coaches and players on the field. Like we’re privy to some secret sauce insider information hidden from those actually on the inside.
This year’s Biden campaign and Democratic turnout machine will be the most complex, well-funded, and sophisticated in world history — with an unprecedented amount targeting data, internal polls, focus groups, amateur and professional advice, and canvassers.
Unfortunately, this does not mean they will actually be able to get voters to turnout for their preferred candidates. But they will have every tool at their disposal to try, and try they will.
Whether the effort is futile remains to be seen. People can make educated/lucky guesses, but voters are the deciders here, and voting behavior cannot be controlled or predicted.
But it’s sophistry to believe Substack bros or blog commenters know something Biden’s team doesn’t know about what needs doing.
@Gustopher:
@DK:
I asked “what and whom” will be sacrificed anticipating the argument that Biden should dump Harris. Black folks vote for harm reduction/the least harm inflicted. We already know that built into this American political system is the machinery to “keep us in our place,” notwithstanding the efforts and intentions of “good White folks.”
@Michael Reynolds:
1. Republicans leaving have probably figured out the party of John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and George W. Bush is never coming back.
2. The DNC is now the party of America’s management class. Why wouldn’t they suck up more cash than the fledging populist GOP.
3. What polls are you looking at? https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/general-election
4. Texas is still solidly a Chamber of Commerce Republican state. Trump only got 52% in 2020.
5. Abortion and the fact the Republicans are in the midst of a party reformation (deformation?).
People are getting burned out because instead of reacting to Trump by being sober, serious, and civic-minded adults, they turned into hysterical loons. They responded to Trump’s abnormality by casting off their own norms. But Trump’s abnormality is normal for him, while his critics let themselves become emotionally and intellectually unmoored.
Not to put words in Andy’s mouth, but the Israel/Palestine issue is one where you simply can’t please everybody. How much do you kowtow or sacrifice the Arab vote in Michigan vs the Jewish vote in whatever swing states where that might be important?
Other arguments are going to be the ones we have on OTB, where progressive ideals sometimes causing conflict with more generally popular positions. It takes awhile to get all the demographics on board. As I recall, gay marriage was not widely supported in some minority communities when it started to become a big issue. But we got there. And we got there with people elected that might have not played up that position initially (Obama, for example), but who were privately open to it. That said, the ideals should keep getting brought up as a reminder.
Your kids aren’t getting transition care with Trump. Period. He must not be re-elected.
@DK:
For a fan on the sideline, you have a lot of confidence in this turnout machine – the best in world history – quite a claim!
We shall see.
But some blog commenters seem to know this will be the best campaign in world history. Sophistry indeed.
Unlike some, I’m not making any claims of inside knowledge, merely giving my analysis and opinion on what I think Biden and the campaign should do. People are free to take it or leave it.
As for campaigns, they are often not even close to the best in world history. Clinton’s campaign famously completely neglected the so-called “blue wall” in 2016, among other major errors that cost her the race. Complexity, funding, sophistication, and all the rest can’t make up for fundamental strategic and tactical errors.
@DeD:
I wasn’t thinking of Harris at all. I think dumping Harris is all downside and no upside. My argument WRT to Harris over the last year is that the administration needs to raise her profile, improve her image, and try to make her more popular and viewed as more capable of being President given Biden’s age – which they haven’t done, for reasons that aren’t clear.
If I had to name a “pawn” to be sacrificed, I would probably say climate activists. Biden has already done more for them and on climate generally than any other President, and he should be given the space to campaign on energy abundance and lowering energy costs.
@Franklin:
That’s another good example. People may be unhappy that Biden is not doing enough to reign in Israel, but he’s done more than probably any other President would and has. And what’s the alternative, help get Trump elected?
This is the problem with activists and their pet issues trying to be the tail that wags the dog and not considering the bigger picture.
@Andy:
Thanks, Andy; I appreciate that analysis.
@Andy:
Which is why I wrote thus: “Unfortunately, this does not mean they will actually be able to get voters to turnout for their preferred candidates. But they will have every tool at their disposal to try, and try they will.
Whether the effort is futile remains to be seen. People can make educated/lucky guesses, but voters are the deciders here, and voting behavior cannot be controlled or predicted.”
Did you bother to read and digest all of my comment before you leapt to attack and disagree for no good reason, per usual?
You don’t know how much faith I do or do not have in the Democratic machine, because that was not what my comment was about and is irrelevant to the point.
Elections have many twists and often turn at random. Trump also made major errors in 2016, but won. There’s been plenty of sophisticated polling analysis that indicated Clinton would have won but not for the famous Comey letter October surprise.
So my explicit point, obviously, was that the Biden campaign and Democrat machine could do everything right, take everybody’s good advice — and still lose. Nowhere did I say the campaign would be foolproof; I said the opposite. Anyone who read what I wrote without patholgically looking for something to disagree with as you always do would have gotten that.
But yes, I do have more confidence in the Biden campaign and its record fundraising haul to deploy the resources needed for a best effort, than I have faith in the bloviations of keyboard warrior Monday morning quarterbacks who swear they know best.
@Andy:
This is an error of fact, as Harris is being strategically deployed now to try to address such concerns:
Today, Harris is in campaigning in Pennsylvania. Last week, she represented the Biden administration at the NATO gathering in Munich.
The effort may not breakthrough or be successful, as campaigns are not foolproof and negative perceptions or Biden and Harris may be too baked-in at this point. But, yes, actually the Biden campaign is trying to do what sideline know-it-alls say should be done.
And unlike the Trump campaign and RNC, which is struggling to raise funds, the Biden campaign will have the resources to pull out all the stops. It already has more cash-on-hand than any other campaign at this point, and it will have more targeting data, high and low tech, and moving parts than any campaign ever.
Whether all that fits a strawman argument definition of “best campaign in world history,” I don’t know since those are your words, not mine. The words I did actually write, stand.