Trump Second in WSJ/NBC Poll

Via the WSJWSJ/NBC Poll: A Donald Trump Surprise

Among Republican primary voters, Mr. Romney captured the support of 21% in a broad, nine-candidate field. Mr. Trump was tied for second with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 17%. House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 11%, just ahead of former Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s 10%. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, considered a strong contender by political handicappers, remains largely unknown, with just 6% support. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota had 5%, former Pennsylvania Sen.Rick Santorum 3%, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbourwith just 1%.

I can’t help but thin that this is nothing more than a name recognition effect.

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Jack says:

    What I find interesting is how Gingrich and Palin are statistically tied.

    Wow. I think that particular result is telling us something more than simple name recognition.

  2. john personna says:

    You can’t think of anything but name recognition? What about a selection effect.

    Who is the GOP today?

  3. Dave Schuler says:

    Nobody ever lost money by underestimating the taste of the American public. Or, in this case, Republican primary voters.

  4. @JP:

    Point taken.

    Really, I should have written “primarily name recognition effects” which I do think is the case.

    But yes: the unseriousness of most of these potential candidates is remarkable to behold.

  5. john personna says:

    I’ve often wondered to what degree good, smart, candidates try to time their run to conditions, and say “not this time” … knowing of course that with a 4 year cycle, there are only so many chances in a career.

    Are there smart capable potential candidates who regard Obama as unbeatable?

  6. @JP:

    This is clearly part of the issue–the calculation is, even given all of the challenges that the President currently, that re-election is relatively likely.

  7. john personna says:

    And so the Republican primary cycle becomes “sideshow” descending now into “freakshow.”

  8. john personna says:

    (That said, primary voters should show a little more self-respect.)

  9. Dave Schuler says:

    Running a presidential campaign means fund-raising and fund-raising nowadays means you’ve got to appeal to the most partisan and ideological members of your own party. Not a formula for electing moderates.

  10. john personna says:

    It is true that the further you get from the moderates, the centrists, the nuttier things seem 😉