Joe Biden Inches Closer To Clinton In New Poll
Vice-President Biden continues to rise in the polls even though he has yet to actually enter the race for President.
A new poll shows Vice-President Biden surging among Democratic voters to the point where he now draws nearly as much support as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders:
Vice President Joe Biden surged in a new national Bloomberg Politics poll of Democratic voters and independent voters leaning toward the Democratic Party released Wednesday morning, even though he has not announced his intentions for the presidency.
Hillary Clinton earned a plurality of 33 percent, followed by Biden at 25 percent and independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 24 percent. Other candidates are polling within the margin of error.
Biden led the field in terms of net favorability, polling at 80 percent to 14 percent, compared with Clinton’s 70 percent to 25 percent and Sanders’ 56 percent to 9 percent. More than a third of Democrats and Democratic leaners (35 percent) are not sure what they think of Sanders.
Of the candidates currently in the race, Democratic voters are most skeptical about realistically seeing Donald Trump as president — just 29 percent said yes, while 69 percent said they could not envision the billionaire businessman in the Oval Office. By comparison, 47 percent said they could realistically see Clinton as president, but 52 percent said they could not.
A plurality of voters said they want Biden to run, at 47 percent, while 37 percent want the veep to stay out and 15 percent are not sure.
This poll comes on the heels of a CNN/ORC poll released earlier this week that showed Biden rising to 22% after spending much of the summer garnering roughly 15% to 17% in the polls he was included in over the summer. Unlike that poll, though, this Bloomberg poll has some particularly bad news for Hillary Clinton in that it shows her support down to 33%, lower than it has been in other recent polls. Whether this means that things are getting particularly bad for Clinton now or that the Bloomberg poll is an outlier remains to be seen, though. Given the fact that all of the other recent polling had Clinton above 40% at the very least, the most logical conclusion to reach is that we’re looking at some of an anomaly here. If it’s not an anomaly, then Clinton looks to be in far worse shape than any of the recent polling has indicated.
Even if this poll is considered something of an outlier, it’s likely to cause the speculation about Biden’s intentions to intensify even more than it already has. Nationally, the Vice President now stands at 21.8%, just slightly behind Bernie Sanders, while Clinton has seen her average drop from a high of 62.4% as recently as late June to 41.8% today. Obviously, the numbers the Vice-President is seeing here aren’t necessarily a reflection of what the race for the Democratic nomination would be like if he got into the race. Just like Clinton had very high approval numbers during the time that she was essentially detached from partisan politics as Secretary of State, Biden is enjoying a surge of popularity tied very much to the fact that he is outside of the race right now. Additionally, for the past two months or more he has been getting nothing by very good press, largely due to sympathy over the loss of his son but also simply due to all the speculation about whether or not he might enter the race. If he does run, these numbers are obviously going to drop at some point and his political future will depend on how well he is able to campaign against both Clinton and Sanders going forward. Given Biden’s history as a campaigner on the national stage, it’s likely that things won’t go very well for him if he does get in the race.
Despite those caveats, though, these latest numbers are likely yet another factor that will play into the Vice-President’s decision. As I said on Monday, the time for him to make that decision are dwindling, though, and if we don’t hear from him by the time October starts it will be safe to assume that he’s not running.
Actually, it’s BECAUSE he didn’t declare yet..
It is rumored that Obama will endorse him if he agrees to only serve one term and let Obama select the Vice Presidential candidate. People are worried about Hillary Clinton’s baggage but I still think she could probably beat anyone in the Republican Clown Car.
Her favorability remains high. Again, this shows Democrats want a contest over a coronation. They’re perfectly fine with her having the nomination, but her handling of the email pseudo-scandal and Wasserman Schultz’s limiting of debates has led to questioning Clinton’s ability to campaign effectively.
I would be interested to know where Biden’s drawing Clinton supporters from demographically. Is this an identity politics thing and he’s drawing men, or is this of more concern than that?
@Tillman:
As a demographic of one, I want to say, “Yes?”
Of course, my dislike of Clinton has nothing to do with preferring a man over a woman or any of that other patriarchal shit. Strange as it may seem, I just think he’s the more “conservative” choice, not conservative politically, just more willing to rely on subtle, incremental changes that become rather permanent, a more perfect union and all that.
Maybe I’m just hoping for a 3rd Obama term in Biden’s name, which I don’t think Clinton will give us.
There may be an appetite for some sort of contest between reasonable people – and the Republicans are, frankly, opting out of that conversation.
I personally support Sanders, but I also recognize that he’s viewed as ‘loony left’ by much of the right-wing in America. If “true” independents see a Biden-Clinton race as a choice between two realistic candidates, they may appreciate that they can have a moderate choice who is not a Clinton.
Wouldn’t it be nice to watch the adults have a discussion?
Clinton
Biden
Sanders
Toss in Elizabeth Warren for the heck of it….
As opposed to:
Trump
Fiorina
Carson
Cruz
@Ron Beasley:
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard in awhile. Obama will NOT endorse anyone until the nomination is a done deal, and there is no way he makes ANY endorsement dependent upon conditions such as those. If he wants Biden to be president, I cannot imagine any reason he would prefer it to be for a single term. And who would Obama want to be VP? Ridiculous.
I’d love to trace that rumor back to the jackass who created it and smack them upside the head.
@Ron Beasley:
‘
Jesus Christ: the rumor originates with Ed Klein, a “Hillary killed Vince Foster” conspiracy theorist. Have we now reached the point where liberals are going to repeat any lie that the fever swamps on the right come up with to fight the Hillary beast?
Hillary Clinton has nobody but herself to blame for her current woes. She has had years to rehabilitate her image, but instead she doubled down on the things that many Democratic voters do not like about her. The email debacle was just plain stupid or just arrogant. Everything Hillary does is calculated and planned so I don’t see her deciding, “golly, gee whiz, I think it will be easier if I use my personal email and server for everything”. I cannot imagine her not questioning, “what could go wrong with doing this?”, especially for her and with the trust issues that many have with her. So now the situation seems to be degenerating for her into ABC (Anybody But Clinton) with more and more Democratic voters.
@humanoid.panda:
LOL. Ed Klein. That explains quite a bit. Thanks!
@Ron Beasley:
@CrustyDem:
I saw it on memeorandum a couple of days ago, but then I also saw who created it.
Edward Klein.
If someone doesn’t know who he is, here is his wikipedia page.
He has no credibility what so ever.
@PJ: But hey we all know that Hilalry is “calculating and planned,” unlike any other politician ever, so why not believe the rumors.
Seriously, given that Biden is, if anything, to her right on economic issues, the only way I can read nominal liberals unhappy with Hillary’s “corporatism” gung ho for him is either butthurt from the 2008 primary, or simple misogyny.
@humanoid.panda:
Which is why he has the nominal support of unions. Where do you get this idea from? I’m honestly in the dark on the comparison here.
Of course Biden is running, as potential replacement of Hillary should she become too damaged to win the general election. The DNC elite have already lost much faith in Clinton and are positioning the knife.
@Tillman: His work for credit card companies..
@humanoid.panda: which Clinton voted for in ’01 and missed the vote for in ’05. I can take her word for it that absent Bill’s medical issue she would’ve voted against, but if this is the one issue they diverge on it doesn’t quite make a substantive difference. Like Obama and Hillary on healthcare reform in 2008.
@Tillman: It’s not a huge difference, but I am not the one making the argument that Joe is somehow a tribune of the people and Hillary is a corporatist bitch…
Also, Biden had a long and good career, but when did he stuck out his neck for a liberal reform like Hilalry for healthcare in 1992/3?
@humanoid.panda:
For same sex marriage in 2012
@Grewgills: Fair enough. He also was to the left of her on foreign affairs when she was SecState. However, we were talking about economic issues.
Again: I am not saying Biden is a terrible person or a conservative is sheep’s clothing or anything like that. It’s just that it makes perfect sense to go for Bernie if you feel Hillary is too right wing. When you use the same rationale to pine for Biden, your problem with her is not she is too right wing…
@humanoid.panda:
I have two real problems with her, she is too corporatist and she is too hawkish. Biden is at least less hawkish. If I thought Sanders were electable I’d be on his bandwagon and I wish Warren had run, but you take what you can get.
@James Pearce:
That pretty much sums up my feelings. Going back to the 2007/2008 primary I was an Obama supporter. I don’t think I’ve ever really gotten over the underhanded ways that the Clinton team attacked him. Probably also explains why I have little sympathy now when Clinton supporters whine about how unfair “everyone” always treats her.
Biden actually has a chance (although it’s probably not terribly realistic given Republican intransigence) to fulfill Obama’s promise of being a less divisive President.
A Clinton Presidency only promises 4-8 more years of constant fighting and Investigations … except that unlike the relatively scandal free Obama administration, there’s more likely to end up being actual fire somewhere within all the Republican smoke.