Bush Leads Every National Poll
At least eight significant polls came out today looking at a three way race between President Bush, Senator Kerry, and Mr. Nader. Bush has a slight lead in seven and a substantial lead in another; Nader’s showing is negligible across the board, although perhaps significant in a handful of swing states. The RealClear Politics average, which I’ve long maintained is the best indicator, has it Bush 49.0, Kerry 45.0, and Nader 1.7.
The constituent polls:
Rasmussen has it 48-46 with President Bush garnering 213 solid Electoral Votes to 194 for Senator Kerry.
The Washington Post tracking poll shows Bush up 50-46.
Gallup-USA Today has Bush up 50-44 among likely voters but only 46-49 among registered voters.
Zogby‘s tracking poll has it 46-44.
Newsweek: 48-46 (“too close to call”) among registered voters but 50-44 among likely voters.
Of course, as we saw in 2000, this is a series of state elections rather than a national one. While Bush also maintains a slight lead in the prominent electoral vote projections, Kerry has some encouraging news as well. Most analysts continue to believe that whoever takes two states from Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will win the election. Kerry currently maintains a slight lead in Pennysylvania and Ohio with Bush maintaining and edge in Florida. It’s conceivable that Bush could win even without Ohio or Pennsylvania–indeed, he’s leading without them right now–but he’d have to win essentially every state where he’s got even a slight lead for that to happen. Winning Ohio–which he had led until the debates–and holding Florida would virtually assure him the election.
Update: Fixed RCP average to show Kerry at 45 rather than 47.