Fight Over Border Wall Funding Could Lead To Government Shutdown

A brewing fight over funding for the President's border wall could throw a monkey wrench into plans to pass a budget by next Friday.

With Congress set to return to Washington this week after the Thanksgiving holiday ahead of a Lame Duck Session that could deal with a number of contentious issues, including consideration of the new trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the biggest item on the calendar, as usual, will be the budget for the new Fiscal Year that began on October 1st. As has become the habit most especially in election years, before Congress left town in late September it passed a Continuing Resolution that keeps the government running through early December. Now, though, it has to at least make an effort to get a budget deal done before the end of the year, and that requires dealing with a number of contentious issues any one of which could lead to a government shutdown if a deal can’t be reached. Of all those issues, though, the biggest and most contentious will likely be the President’s demand for funding for his border wall:

Congress just can’t help itself: With a partial government shutdown potentially two weeks away, Democrats and Republicans are dug in, each side upping its demands and vowing not to buckle to the other.

President Donald Trump is pressuring Republicans to obtain at least $5 billion for his border wall, far more than what Senate Democrats are prepared to give. Democrats in turn are considering pushes for legislation to protect special counsel Robert Mueller and the elimination of a citizenship question from the next census, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Meanwhile House Democrats are embroiled in a divisive leadership fight, limiting the energy that Nancy Pelosi can devote to the year-end spending negotiations. And House Republicans, set to enter the minority in just a month and a half, recognize this is their last chance to get a down payment for Trump’s wall before entering legislative obscurity.

The stakes have been lessened somewhat by deals this summer to fund about 75 percent of the government until next fall. But a partial shutdown isn’t what either party is looking for, either.

“I don’t want to screw with those deadlines; I don’t want to engage in shutdown politics. Let’s fund the federal government and move on,” Senate Homeland Security Chairman Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said on Tuesday. “I wish Democrats would cooperate. They all said they want to secure the border, so OK: It’s going to require better barriers.”

“If that gets in the mix, there has to be something in return for that,” shot back Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). “I myself have a pretty hard position that Democrats should not even be engaged in discussions about that because [Trump] made it very clear that Mexico was going to pay for that wall.”

Indeed, though a shutdown would be viewed as poor optics for both sides, backing down might be worse, with each party’s base eager to fight.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has made clear he’s in no mood to swallow a major concession on wall money that would boost the president, publicly urging Trump to stay out of the negotiations.

But Trump is unbowed. He’s refused to rule out a shutdown and has told GOP leaders that he wants no less than $5 billion for the wall, according to sources familiar with internal talks. That’s more modest than Trump’s earlier demands, which went as high as $25 billion.

And some Republicans are still eager to help him get there. Last week, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) introduced a bill providing $25 billion for the wall while proposing to pay for it by cutting benefits for undocumented immigrants and levying fines on people who cross the border illegally.

“Here is the thing: Walls work. We know they work,” Inhofe said in introducing his bill.

Still, that sum of money is now out of reach, and Democrats would need major concessions from Republicans to deliver even $5 billion at this point. Some Republicans have discussed providing that amount over two years, but the GOP has yet to rally around that position, and it’s not clear that the president would view that as enough.

In reality, there seems to be little support in either party for a confrontation or shut down over Trump’s border wall. Even before they left Washington to campaign for re-election. Republicans and Democrats had largely agreed to the spending levels for the next fiscal year. The wall has been the only significant unresolved issue, although Democrats have been attempting to use it as a bargaining chip to be used to get things that they want, such as legislation that would protect the investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller and removal of the citizenship question from the 2020 Census questionnaire. With respect to the wall itself, Democrats had largely conceded spending roughly $1.6 billion on the project, well below the $5 billion demand that the President has set and far below the $20-25 billion, if not more, that complete construction of any so-called border wall has been estimated to cost. As a result, the parties are far apart with respect to this one issue and the only question appears to be how far the two sides are willing to push their position in the negotiations that are likely to take place over the next month if the government is to remain funded through the end of the Fiscal Year in September.

As it stands, the current Continuing Resolution runs out a week from Friday on December 7th, meaning that Congress will either have to come up with a resolution to all of these outstanding issues by then or they’ll have to kick the can down the road with another short-term spending bill, most likely one that, at least initially, pushes the spending bill in to January for the next Congress to deal with. Ideally, this will be something that Congress can deal with before the end of the year, but there’s no guarantee that will happen. Democrats, for example, will be under pressure from their own base and from incoming members in the House to hold the line on their current position and, most especially, to hold the line on issues such as the border wall. Republicans, meanwhile, will want to get as good a deal as they can while they still have power in Congress. And then, of course, there’s President Trump, who has an agenda all his own that shifts with the wind so there’s no telling how that might change between now and whenever Congress finally votes on whatever budget deal it manages to come up with.

 

 

FILED UNDER: Borders and Immigration, Congress, Deficit and Debt, Donald Trump, Politicians, US Politics, ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Facebones says:

    Why is this congress’ problem? Send a bill to Mexico like the Master Deal Maker said he would. That should take care of it!

  2. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    Maybe one of the sycophants can explain why Mexico isn’t paying for the wall?
    JKB? Guarneri? Baby-Jenos? You guys voted for this turd. Explain this.

  3. Kathy says:

    How about a provision for $10 billion in aid to Mexico so they can pay $5 billion for the wall? Separate from any other aid, such as Plan Colombia aid.

  4. Mister Bluster says:

    Last week, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) introduced a bill providing $25 billion for the wall while proposing to pay for it by cutting benefits for undocumented immigrants and levying fines on people who cross the border illegally.

    This is the same REPUBLICAN Senator Inhofe who stated:
    “I believe very strongly that we ought to support Israel;..Because God said so.
    It is at this place where God appeared to Abram and said, “I am giving you this land — the West Bank”*. This is not a political battle at all. It is a contest over whether or not the word of God is true.”

    I wonder if he will appeal to the Almighty for money to build the wall? He’s likely to get more funding from White Jesus than the undocumented immigrants.

    Are undocumented immigrants eligible for federal public benefit programs?
    Both documented and undocumented immigrants pay more into public benefit programs than they take out. According to New American Economy, undocumented immigrants paid over $328.2 billion in state, local, and federal taxes in 2014 alone. However, undocumented immigrants are not eligible for any of the federal or state benefits that their tax dollars help fund.

    *In American English no doubt.

  5. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    by cutting benefits for undocumented immigrants and levying fines on people who cross the border illegally.

    It’s just more Republican smoke and mirrors. Just like tax cuts that will never actually increase revenues they will cut benefits that undocumented immigrants don’t actually receive, and fine those who cross the border illegally all of the nonexistent money they have in their pockets, holding them in for profit detainment centers until they pay up.

  6. Pete S says:

    I would assume at this point that any continuing resolution needs to pass with a veto proof majority, as Trump would love to see funding cut off to the FBI and any other branch of the Justice Department that can be reached. Even $100b for a wall would not do it, he would find another excuse for the veto.

  7. Kathy says:

    [..]It is at this place where God appeared to Abram [..]

    I thought Jehovah had appeared to Abraham in Mesopotamia.

    Maybe that’s why they invaded Iraq?

  8. Guarneri says:

    Looks like Doug’s assertions that the caravan issue was just a bogus campaign issue, soon to be forgotten, was pure crap. Anyone surprised?

  9. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    @Guarneri:

    Looks like Doug’s assertions that the caravan issue was just a bogus campaign issue, soon to be forgotten, was pure crap.

    Dennison himself admits it’s a political move.

    “…I will tell you, politically speaking, that issue is a total winner.

    It’s so sad, Drew, to see you conned the way you are. No wonder you can’t keep a business.

  10. al Ameda says:

    @Guarneri:

    Looks like Doug’s assertions that the caravan issue was just a bogus campaign issue, soon to be forgotten, was pure crap. Anyone surprised?

    For once I’ll give Trump credit: he has created an “Immigration Crisis!” where none existed. All statistics (admittedly Deep State originated) show that since 2007 and the onset of the Great Recession, illegal immigration from the southern border has been net zero.

    I believe Pew Research recently issued a report on this subject too. I’m sure that conservatives consider Pew Research to be a ‘Main Stream Media operation, if not a wholly owned subsidiary of George Soros and his Jewish Liberal Conspiracy operation.

  11. Kathy says:

    Dennison can’t even manage good drama any more.

    The question now is : how soon will he fold? Not terribly interesting.