Latinos Aren’t Pro-Democrat So Much As They’re Anti-Republican, New Poll Finds

A new poll finds that Republican policies on immigration are chasing Latino voters straight into the arms of the Democratic Party.

A new poll of Latino voters finds the Republican Party in serious trouble among America’s fastest growing minority group:

The second part of a poll conducted by impreMedia and Latino Decisions (LD) also reveals that, although Latino voters will not automatically vote for Obama—only 43% are sure they will vote for him next year—doubts about the president and the Democrats are not turning into support for the Republicans.

(…)

As far as the GOP is concerned, only 9% of Latino voters said that they will vote for a Republican candidate and another 8% said that they might. This is one of the lowest levels of support obtained by the Republicans in recent years, and far less than the 40% a GOP candidate would need to make a difference in key states to become president.

“I think the most interesting story here is how badly the Republicans are faring with Latinos. It is as if Latinos are not pro-Democrat, but rather anti-Republican,” said Gary Segura, a political science professor at Stanford University.

(…)

Of those polled, 52% said the Democratic party is getting close to the Latino community, while 35% said the party is not interested in Latinos or is negative toward them. The numbers for Republicans are more negative: 18% said the party does not do a good job for Latinos and 66% said it is negative or does not care about the community.

In part, experts attribute the continued (although not enthusiastic) support of Latinos for Obama and the Democrats to the fact that basically, there is nowhere to turn.

“What I see is that Latinos have few options. Yes, we are disillusioned by some things, the economy hits us hard, immigration reform did not happen despite an attempt, but in the end, the only ally we have in D.C. seems to be Obama,” said Pantoja.

Given the GOP’s rhetoric on immigration over recent years, and the manner in which politicians who have tried to reach out to the Latino community by proposing immigration reform plans have been treated within the party, none of this is surprising. For obvious reasons, immigration and immigrant right are important issues to this voting bloc and a party that consistently refuses to recognize them isn’t going to find much sympathy. Instead of looking for realistic, workable solutions to the twin problems of illegal immigration and a labor shortage in areas where only immigrant and migrant workers seem willing to work, Republicans are concentrating on foolish endeavors like re-writing the 14th Amendment, giving the police the authority to question anyone they pull over about their citizenship status, or erecting a border fence and engage in other security measures what would make East Germans blush. This is why someone like Marco Rubio hasn’t necessarily wholeheartedly endorsed some of the more virulent GOP immigration proposals, such as Arizona’s controversial immigration law.

Politically, of course, this isn’t necessarily the best idea. Not only are Latino the fastest growing minority group in the country, but in states like California, Florida,  and Texas (which will account for they account for 122 Electoral Votes starting in 2012) they are becoming increasingly decisive in the outcome of an election.  Failing to acknowledge issues of concern to them, or at least being perceived as doing so,  is a recipe for long-term political suicide, as the polls numbers on party identification make clear:

As for party affiliation, the trend of having more independents than Republicans continues like in recent years: 14% identified themselves as Republicans, 54% as Democrats, 18% as independent and 7% as other.

Latinos may not be entirely sold on the Democratic Party yet, but if the GOP continues down the anti-immigration, nativist path that it has traveled in recent years, it is likely to find itself a minority party in the years to come.

There’s one final data point in the poll about one Republican politician in particular:

One thing is clear: they do not like Sarah Palin. Asked about their image of the former governor of Alaska, these voters said that it is predominantly negative: 53% unfavorable versus 23% favorable.

“Palin’s message is not resonating with Latinos. In a way she has an image problem similar to the one Meg Whitman [the Republican candidate for governor] had in California… During the 2008 campaign, I remember she used the phrase that she was referring to the ‘true America.’ I think that Latinos do not feel she is addressing them,” said Pantoja.

I noted some of the hard-core conservatives at CPAC echoing Palin’s us v.  them rhetoric. If that continues into the General Election, it risks further alienating a voting bloc that is already very skeptical of the GOP to begin with. While I’m not necessarily giving the GOP advice, it seems to me they’d do well to think twice before embracing a strategy that seems destined to subject them to minority status before long.

FILED UNDER: Public Opinion Polls, Race and Politics, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Moosebreath says:

    “Latinos Aren’t Pro-Democrat So Much As They’re Anti-Republican”

    Just like a certain front-pager here is not so much pro-Republican as anti-Democrat, Doug?

  2. sam says:

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  3. Jack says:

    It only makes sense. As a melanin-challenged individual (that is, someone so white I need sunscreen ALL the time), having dated several latinas, I have to say this: Why would anyone remotely rational vote FOR any member of a party that essentially states, “If they’re brown, flush them down!”

  4. An Interested Party says:

    Republicans will have to change in regards to illegal immigration and its associated issues if they don’t want to become part of an extreme minority party, that much is obvious…the rub will come when elements within the party start to push for this change and other nativist and even racist elements push back against that…that’s when the real fun will begin…

  5. Ben Wolf says:

    Relatively few of us are pro-Democrat, but the Republicans have gone so far off the map there’s no one else to vote for.

  6. michael reynolds says:

    Dear New Poll: Duh.

  7. Brummagem Joe says:

    Doug: Latino’s are not Democrats in the same way that Libertarians like you are not Republicans. So when did you last vote Democrat?

  8. Joe,

    When the mayor of my hometown ran for re-election the first year I was eligible to vote. I haven’t found many acceptable Democratic choices since then.

  9. superdestroyer says:

    Anyone who believes that the more conservative party will ever be able to appeal to Hispanics is a fool. What Hispanics are upset about is that President Obama has not taxed the Gringos enough or transfer enough wealth to the Hispanic community.

    And before anyone claims that Hispanics are social conservatives, please point out the blue dog Democrats who are Hispanic or please explain the over 50% illegitimacy rate.

    The best thing that the Republicans can do is keep the 20 million plus illegal aliens from becoming citizens who will automatically vote for Democrats and eliminate racial pork programs to keep the Hispanics from having a reason to keep voting for the Democrats.

  10. Pug says:

    And here comes Superdestroyer to prove the point about Republicans and Latinos. Good job.

    When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, the people who voted were 86% white. When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, the electorate was 68% white. In 2012 I’ll bet that number drops to 66% white.

    You do the math.

  11. michael reynolds says:

    I nominate Superdestroyer as the main outreach co-ordinator from the GOP to Hispanics. Work hard to ensure that the fastest growing voting bloc remains Democratic.

  12. TG Chicago says:

    I’m with Ben Wolf. Who *is* pro-Democrat? I hardly even know what the party stands for. They’re so wishy-washy about everything, it’s very difficult to get excited about them. They don’t even seem excited about themselves.

  13. michael reynolds says:
  14. matt says:

    superdestroyer bringing his typical load of crazy ignorance with a health dose of racism…

    Around 70% of Hispanics are Catholics and most are what conservatives would call “pro-family”. I’ve believed for some time that Hispanics would be inclined to vote Republican if Republicans would just lay off the haterade…

  15. nikolai says:

    Those Latinos are pretty smart, eh?

  16. superdestroyer says:

    Pug,

    One of the reasons that there are more Hispanic voters is that the idiot cheap labor Republicans passed an amnesty act in the 1980’s that promised better border security. Of course, the Reagan administration lied and now states like California are lost to the Republicans forever.

    Attending 20 million Hispanics to the voter roles in the hopes that the Republicans will get 1/3 of their votes is a great demonstration of innumeracy. The only way for any conservative party to survive is to limit the number of poor, non-white voters.

  17. superdestroyer says:

    Matt,

    Hispanics do not attend church more than whites and much less than blacks. Hispanics give little money to the Catholic church. Hispanics have the same divorce rate as whites and a much higher illegitimate birthrate. Please explain exactly how Hispanics are “pro-family.” I have heard that Karl Rove talking point for years but not one demographic data point to prove it.

    Look at the report out of UCLA that showed that second and third generation Hispanic families are more likely to be on welfare and have less educational success than first generation Hispanics.

    Hispanics are better described as less violent blacks instead of pro-family, proto-whites.

  18. superdestroyer says:

    Michael,

    I love how liberal Democrats and progressives are the loudest voices in the call for the Republicans abandoning any pretense of being a conservative party. Why do progressives keep wanting the Republicans to be the open borders, ethnic pander party just like the Democrats? Because in the long run, the U.S. does not need to liberal political parties and making the Republicans the second liberal party will just lead to its extinction.

    What conservatives need to do is eliminate any government program that gives power to race panders like La Raza and treat Hispanics like everyone else is the U.S. Why should Hispanics get to break so many laws just because they are Hispanic?

  19. superdestroyer says:

    Increased third world immigration leads to higher taxes, poorer schools, more sprawl, more traffic, more crime, and a lower standard of living. Why should any political party want to promote such an agenda. The Democrats and Republicans need to join in a program to improve American for the current citizens and stop throwing the middle class and blue collar families under the bus in a desperate search for cheap labor.

    If one has to pay higher taxes, private school tuition, higher insurance because of unlimited immigration, then the cheaper papusas are not worth it.

  20. TG Chicago says:

    “Hispanics are better described as less violent blacks instead of pro-family, proto-whites.”

    Earlier, I mentioned how it’s hard to actually get excited about Democrats. Here, by contrast, we see the reason that I usually go ahead and vote for them anyway.

  21. […] of that poll about Latinos and the GOP that Doug Mataconis noted earlier in the week comes the following tale from Kansas:  Rep. Connie O’Brien, a […]

  22. bains says:

    For obvious reasons, immigration and immigrant right are important issues to this voting bloc and a party that consistently refuses to recognize them isn’t going to find much sympathy.

    A large contribution to this is that so many left of center conveniently drop the proper descriptive “illegal” when quoting what most on the right actually say. Also part of the reason why the left is so compelled to re-define an illegal alien as undocumented visitor.

  23. matt says:

    superdestroyer : Considering the “facts” you spew about the “inferior races” here I doubt any amount of truth would convince you otherwise so frankly you’re not more time then it takes to call you out for your blatantly ignorant tirades…

  24. matt says:

    worth more time

  25. superdestroyer says:

    Matt,

    I take it that you could not find any data that supports the idea that Hispanics are either religious or social conservatives. I love how the left is always demanding references and cites but never can supply thieir own data.

    Please support your thesis that Hispanics are really conservatives and open to the idea of supporting Repubicans. That there were no elected Hispanic Republicans in Texas even during the idea of Bush being governor does not support the idea that Hipsanics are welcoming to Republicans or that outreach would work. Bush panders his ass off to Hispanics and it did no good.

  26. matt says:

    Superdestroyer : I’ve presented mountains of data in the past and all you do is disappear from the thread when nailed with facts. Inevitably you reappear in another thread making the same obviously false claims. I am tired of presenting facts to someone that obviously prefers his racist opinions over reality. The adults in this thread have seen and heard the truth already so there’s sense in me bashing my head against your brick wall anymore. Enjoy your closed minded existence and your clan meetings..

  27. matt says:

    *there’s no sense

  28. superdestroyer says:

    Matt,

    Please name the threads and I will go review it. I doubt if you can. You will just repeat the Karl Rove talking points and are patently falses.

    It is hard to argue that all of those members of MS-13 are really blue dog Democrats but I guess the repeated claims that you have made lots of cites gives you an excuse to keep playing the race card.

    Please list all of the elected Hispanic Republicans in Texas. PLease list all of the budget cuts that Hispanics politicians are proposing.

    Please point out all of the conservative positions that are listed at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

  29. superdestroyer says:

    Matt,

    I google for Matt Superdestroyer and site:outsidethebeltway.com

    I found links by you to data but I found several references to Whiggers. If you think references to whiggers is somehow a massive use of logics, then you represent everything that is wrong with progressives.

    Do it yourself and you will find where I showed that you were wrong with your claim about El Paso and about Houston.

    Please try again or stop the race card playing.