2014 And The Latino Vote

Republicans performed better among Latino voters this year than they did in 2012, but that doesn't mean they've solved their problems.

Latino Vote T-Shirts

Much has been written, including much here at OTB, about the Republican Party’s problems with Latino voters that reached their low point in the 2012 Presidential election when President Obama captured more than 70% of the vote from this fast-growing segment of the population, a stunning change from just eight years ago when President George W. Bush came close to capturing nearly half of that same voting cohort. The reasons for the GOP’s problems among Latinos have been failure easy to figure out, but in the end boil down to a combination of the fact that the party has spent the past eight years resisting nearly any kind of immigration reform on the national level, the fact that it has been Republicans at the state level who have been behind restrictive immigration-related laws at the state level in states like Georgia, Alabama, and Arizona that many Latinos have seen as targeted not just at illegal immigrants but at anyone of Latino heritage, and, of course, the rhetoric used by candidates and party leaders which was perhaps best typified by Mitt Romney’s assertion that the solution to the problem of millions of undocumented immigrants in the country as to encourage “self-deportation” rather than give them a path to legalization. Because of all of this, many party leaders, such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida Senator Marco Rubio have urged their party that it needs to change its position on immigration or risk losing the Latino vote for at least a generation, if not longer.

This past election, though, there have been some indications that, while Democrats still overwhelmingly won the Latino vote nationwide, individual Republican candidates might not be as bad off with the Latino vote as previously thought:

In the Senate race in Colorado, for example, where Latinos make up 14 percent of voters, a conservative Republican, Cory Gardner, took the seat of the incumbent Democrat, Mark Udall, in what analysts from both parties called a Republican playbook on how to blunt the Democrats’ advantage with Hispanics. Mr. Gardner generally avoided the contentious issue of immigration but campaigned in Latino neighborhoods with a message of job creation and smaller government.

“We had better candidates this year, who were talking about the issues that people care about and doing it in a way that did not alienate any group,” said Luis G. Fortuño, the former governor of Puerto Rico who is a member of the Republican National Committee.

Republicans said the glide to re-election of two Hispanic Republican governors in states with large Hispanic populations — Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Brian Sandoval in Nevada — also showed the party’s ability to succeed with those voters when it runs strong candidates.

In Texas, the state with the second-largest Hispanic population — 17 percent of the electorate — Greg Abbott, the Republican who defeated an underdog campaign for governor by Wendy Davis, a Democrat, won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, while Ms. Davis took 55 percent. In 2010, Gov. Rick Perry, also a Republican, won his race with 38 percent of Latinos.

In Georgia, where a small but rapidly growing population of Hispanic citizens now represents 4 percent of voters, Gov. Nathan Deal, a Republican, was re-elected, winning 47 percent of Hispanic voters while his Democratic challenger received 53 percent. In the hard-fought Senate race in Georgia, David Perdue, a conservative Republican businessman, received 42 percent of the Latino votes while his Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, got 57 percent.

In Kansas, Gov. Sam Brownback, a conservative Republican who had been under fire even from some in his own party for sharp tax cuts, received 47 percent of the Latino vote, while his Democratic challenger, Paul Davis, won 46 percent. The exit polls were conducted by Edison Research for the television networks and The Associated Press.

Some analysts suggest that the seeming uptick in Latino support for Republican candidates in the midterms can be attributed more to frustration with the Obama Administration and Democrats, and mistakes by Democratic candidates, than any embrace of the GOP:

In Colorado, Mr. Udall baffled many of his Democratic supporters and Latino organizations in the state by failing to reach out to Hispanics until the final days of the race.

“It was a real miscalculation by the Udall campaign not to make immigration reform and the lack of movement on that issue part of his campaign,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, a bipartisan organization. In an election eve poll by Latino Decisions, a research group, a plurality of 45 percent of Latino voters nationwide said immigration was the most important issue for their communities that politicians should address.

Latino strategists and Democrats said the results would place new pressure on President Obama to take broad executive action to give protection from deportation for immigrants in the country illegally. At a White House news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Obama repeated his intention to unveil those measures before the end of the year. Earlier in the fall, he postponed his announcement, responding to the fears of endangered Democrats in Senate races that it could thrust a toxic issue into their campaigns.

The president’s delay contributed to the lackluster interest among Latinos in the elections, said Gary M. Segura, a principal at Latino Decisions and a political-science professor at Stanford University.

“The president made a significant bet against Latinos this year, and he lost,” Mr. Segura said. Without some action on immigration under Mr. Obama, Democrats would risk greater losses among Hispanics in 2016, Mr. Segura said.

There was some good news for the president in the exit polls. Unlike other voters, a majority of about six in 10 Latino voters approved of his job performance. And among all Americans, 57 percent said they were in favor of providing a way for undocumented immigrants to remain in the country legally, while 39 percent said they should be deported.

Democrats warned that Republicans should not conclude that their gains with Latinos were secure.

“Republicans should not read too much into this,” said Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist. “This doesn’t mean their path to the White House in 2016 will be that much easier.”

There’s much wisdom in this warning, of course. To the extent that Latino voters didn’t feel compelled to come out and vote at all either because of frustration with the Obama Administration due to the failure to take executive action as had been promised back in July or because of long-standing Latino concerns about deportation policies under this President that are actually harsher than they were under George W. Bush, it would not be surprising to see to see the GOP share of the vote from this cohort increase to some degree. In that regard, then, it’s worth noting that while Latinos constituted 10% of the vote in 2012, preliminary exit poll results from this year indicate that they only accounted for 8% of the vote this year. By way of comparison Latinos also accounted for 8% of the vote in the 2010 midterms and the 2006 midterms, when Democrats won the vote in that cohort by roughly the same amount that they did this year. Given these declines in turnout from 2012, it may be premature to say the results at the state level are indicative of anything other than Latino frustration with the Obama Administration’s inaction on an issue that is very important to them, or that it is a sign that the Republican Party is turning a corner with these voters that could provide them with an opportunity going forward.

That being said, the fact that several Republican candidates were able to seemingly breakthrough with Latino voters in a way that the party hasn’t been able to do in recent years should be something that Republicans nationwide pay attention to. For example, in addition to the numbers cited above, in Florida Governor Rick Scott, who ended up winning re-election in a close race, managed to get 38% of the Latino vote in a state where that vote accounted for 13% of the vote. Again, turnout could have played a role here, and the fact that Florida’s Latino vote includes a sizable Cuban-American population that tends to still have more of a Republican tilt to it than the Latino vote does nationally, but this is still close to 40% of vote that President Bush received nationwide eight years ago. It’s also worth noting that the nationwide number, while still overwhelmingly tilted in the Democratic direction at 60% to 38%, was much better than the 71% to 27% that the Latino vote was split between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney just two years ago.

Nonetheless, even leaving aside the fact that lower turnout likely played a big rule in the numbers that we’re seeing for Latino voters this year, there seem to be some lessons here for both sides of the aisle, Republican candidates like Cory Gardner who went into Latino neighborhoods and directly campaigned to the voters there on messages about jobs and the economy, which are every bit as important to Latinos as they are to any other American, seem to have seen some payoff in the polls, Gardner didn’t win a majority of the vote, of course,but he did much better among those voters than Mitt Romney did two years ago, when he got just 23% of the vote against the President’s 71%, That suggests that Republicans can improve their numbers among this important voting group with the right message. Now, if they’d just get their heads straight on immigration reform, they might actually be able to help themselves nationwide among a group of voters that is just going to become more and more important in the future.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2014, Public Opinion Polls, Race and Politics, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Eric Florack says:

    well, so much for the post racial environment we were promised.




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  2. Tony W says:

    I would argue that the vastly different results year over year indicate that there is no such thing as the “Latino Vote” – any more than there is a “White Guy Vote”.

    Most people vote according to their interests (not narrow self interest, mind you) and where your grandparents were born does not make for a primary a voting bloc. There are old, young, rich, poor, religious, atheist, and nearly every other category of “Latinos”.

    One more point. Despite his snarky efforts otherwise, Florack actually touches on a good point above – we are perpetuating racial stereotypes by using phrases like “Latino Vote”.




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  3. John425 says:

    New Mexico’s 2nd District wasn’t supposed to turn out this way. Republican Pearce won every county in the 2nd Congressional District, even outpacing Ms. Lara in heavily Democratic Doña Ana County.
    Rep.-elect Will Hurd, a black Texas Republican who defeated Democratic incumbent Rep. Pete Campo in a sprawling district that stretches from El Paso to San Antonio will join him in the next Congress. As will another Latino from W.Va. and one from Fl.

    Let’s not overlook Sens. Cruz and Rubio Oh, did I mention that Gov.elect Abbot of Tx. has a Hispanic wife?

    So, it seems that Latinos will cross over to the GOP and Latino GOP candidates are electable.

    Que pasa con eso?




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  4. Barry says:

    @Eric Florack: “well, so much for the post racial environment we were promised.”

    Ah, and again a right-wing blames liberals for what the right did.




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  5. John425 says:

    @Barry: You must be having trouble interpreting a “snark”.

    It was the left who thought that electing and reelecting a black man would bring about a “post-racial” society. Unfortunately, the left forgot to put forward a competent and American-centric black man. We wound up with a black “community activist” without any core-competencies in compassionate governing, honesty and leading from the front.




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  6. Tony W says:

    @John425: Nice try, but I saw your lips moving that time….




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  7. just me says:

    I think the mistake for democrats is the belief that all Latino voters are the same.

    Even on immigration reform there is variation and not all Latinos are in favor.

    As for the success of Gardner-I think it shows that you can get votes if you avoid racial politics and focus on what most people care about-jobs, economics and sound government policy.

    Also, while democrats in general can take the black voter for granted because most share similar experiences and listen to the same dig whistle thus isn’t the case with Latino voters who come from a wide variety of backgrounds ( Cubans aren’t the same as immigrants from Mexico who aren’t the same as those from central and South America who aren’t the same as those from Peurto Rico). And then there are variations between second and third generation vs New immigrants who are different from those who have lived in Texas and California since before the Mexican American War.

    Latino voters are more complicated.




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  8. Kari Q says:

    @Tony W:

    I would argue that the results are not “vastly different” from year to year and trying to measure a change in the partisan tilt of subgroups is a misuse of exit polls.

    Exit polls are not designed to produce representative samples of groups within the electorate, such as Asian Americans. Warren Mitofsky, the “godfather of exit polls,” noted that errors in such polls “appear mostly among demographic groups that are both relatively small and those that tend to be geographically concentrated”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/11/10/did-asian-americans-switch-parties-overnight-no/




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  9. Dave Francis says:

    HERITAGE FOUNDATION REPORT: OBAMA AMNESTY. $9.000.000.000.000 TO CATER TO THE ILLEGAL ALIEN WELFARE OVER THEIR LIFETIME.

    On a long term basis by building real double layer fencing at the US/Mexican border, billions of dollars will be saved for the US Taxpayer. The Rep. Duncan Hunter concept started in San Diego, California with a success rate of 90 percent to this day. The concept of a two facing fences with all weather tracks between with access ports for the US Border agents vehicles, is a perfect deterrent. Whatever the funding needed should be appropriated, as the flood of illegal aliens will be drawn to a close.

    The costs would be phenomenal, as those who fall upon the public pocket would come to end. Recruitment of thousands of more border agents, or even a job for returning military troops would guarantee and end to the endless streams of foreign national that now are smuggled in. With the technology that’s available, purportedly inaccessible places could be patrolled by electronic drone or highest level of sensor technology.

    A Report from the Heritage Foundation States:

    The cost of an illegal alien receiving amnesty from Obama is not a short term cost. In fact it has been worked out that over 50 years the cost is more than $9 TRILLION for the five million Barack is legalizing. Barack really wants to bankrupt our nation. Of course the five million illegal aliens he makes “legal” will also challenge five million honest Americans, Hispanics, blacks, men, women and youth for available low pay jobs.
     “The average illegal immigrant is 34 years old. If he receives amnesty, he will receive government benefits for 50 years. Some amnesty proposals suggest restricting benefit access for the first 13 years after amnesty, but that limit would have little impact on long-term costs.
     Over the course of a lifetime, 11.5 million illegal immigrants granted amnesty would receive $9.4 trillion in government benefits after paying just $3.1 trillion in taxes.”
    Obamacare is killing health care, jobs and the economy (the real economy, not the fantasy press releases from the White House) and now for the next two generations the costs of violating the law by the President is going to cost our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren. It will be a Shame on American Taxpayers for allowing this to happen to our country.

    Our nation is under siege. This month we need thousands, if not millions of people, everyone we know, to step up and show their support for the moderate Conservative Tea Party. If we don’t act now, President Obama is going to grant amnesty to 5 million illegal aliens—5 times as many as when Obama freed the dreamers from deportation. Among those millions of illegal aliens are scores of convicted criminals and felons—people of the worst kind including murderers, rapists, pedophiles, and drug lords. He already released 35.000 criminal aliens who will be a threat on our streets and DUI on our highways. How can you possibly hope to unite a nation, when a good part of the population refuses to learn English?

    You and I both recognize that if this comes to pass, the floodgates to economic, social and financial disaster will be thrown wide open. Obama can tout amnesty as some great philanthropic effort but we Patriots see behind the veil of lies and deceit.

    Obama says all of this is beyond our control. People, that’s simply not true. We can stop it. If this President would enforce the current laws and provide the proper support at the borders. We’re being overrun, and Obama’s solution is to hold events at the White House “honoring illegal aliens who came to this country.” He is REWARDING criminals.
    If President Obama implements a unilateral order, to bypass Congress and gives a free pass and a universal amnesty, all hell could break loose. It will be a national emergency and my belief is what that hard-core Socialist in the White House? It could lead to a ‘Civil War” of sorts, which would be hard to stop. Obama and his administration will see to it that illegal aliens will receive first priority for jobs if amnesty becomes law, getting the best health care, and enjoy a free education—while we break our backs just to feed our families and pay the rising bills for those who jump the border.

    Check this site that has the phone Numbers and Mailing Addresses of Members of Congress contact them at: http://www.contactingthecongress to demand an end to illegal immigration, the dismantling of our laws, sovereignty, citizen rights and even our of abolition of our military top brass, which is protection against our enemies foreign an domestic. Illegal Immigration is rapidly becoming the top priority for Americans, because they see its impact on the bleak economy and lost jobs. TELL THESE SPINELESS DEMS & CONSERVATIVES THERE OUT IN 2016, IF THIS MINDLESS AMNESTY PASSES. This is the number for the central switchboard for every member of Congress to address your opposition at 800-224-3121.




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