Newt Gingrich Predicts Obama Loss, Hints At 2012 Run
Newt Gingrich tells The Politico that he believes President Obama will lose in 2012, and hinted that he may be running himself:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gives President Barack Obama only a 20 percent chance of being reelected — and says he might be the one to give Obama the boot.
Gingrich, who this week published a book called “To Save America: Stopping Obama’s Secular-Socialist Machine,” said he thinks Obama has “about one chance in five of getting reelected.” and called him “the closest thing to Jimmy Carter I’ve seen.”
“Because he’s so radical, you’re now going to have, I think, the most consequential campaign since 1932,” when Franklin D. Roosevelt clobbered President Herbert Hoover, Gingrich said.
Giving predictions for November’s midterms, Gingrich said House Republicans will pick up “somewhere between 40 and 65 or 70 seats” — enough to gain control of the House. “I believe John Boehner will be speaker in January,” he said.
Gingrich said he even sees a chance of Republican control of the Senate. “If they can beat Barbara Boxer [in California], I think that [Mitch] McConnell is going to be the Senate majority leader.”
The former speaker said there is “more of a possibility now” that he’ll run for president than when he was considering the idea ahead of the 2008 election. He said he’ll decide in February or March of next year and will base the decision partly on whether there is “a potential to raise the resources to be a serious, major candidate.”
Gingrich said he and his wife, Callista, will base the decision on two top factors: “Is the case for basic change clear enough, and powerful enough, that articulating it and carrying it is a legitimate part of my role as a citizen?” and “Is there a potential to raise the resources to be a serious, major candidate.”
We’ve seen Gingrich play this game before, of course. Prior to 2008, he hinted that he was thinking about entering the race before ultimately announcing that he would not be making a run. In the meantime, he managed to get himself on a lot of network and cable news shows, and make a lot of speeches. A cynical person might say that Gingrich used the increased attention created by a potential candidacy to enhance his own profile, and that he’s probably doing it again.
As for Gingrich’s prediction of an Obama loss, it’s simply far too early to predict anything about what’s going to happen in 30 months, especially considering that Obama’s job approval numbers remain in the high 40’s, not good but not disastrous at this point in a Presidency either. Additionally, the President’s personal favorability numbers remain higher than Mitt Romney’s, or Mike Huckabee’s, or Sarah Palin’s.
Given that, and the fact that, even incrementally, the economy seems to be improving, it’s simply foolish of Gingrich to say that Obama is a near-certain loser in 2012.