Predictions for 2008

2008 Presidential Candidates My OTB colleague Dave Schuler made his 2008 predictions on New Year’s Eve but I’ve decided to wait until the first official work day of the year to get a better sense of the lay of the land.

U.S. Politics:

  • The Republicans will eventually nominate someone, pundit chatter about a divided base notwithstanding.
  • “Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote.”*
  • The eventual president will be either a Democrat or Republican, regardless of whether Ron Paul, Mike Bloomberg, or anyone else runs on a third party ticket.
  • The winner will be a Protestant white guy, defying predictions of the First Woman, First Black, or First Mormon President.
  • The Guinness Book folks will have some consolation, if my prediction of John McCain winning the whole thing pans out, in having the oldest man ever elected to a first term.
  • The Democrats will retain both the Houses of Congress, picking up two seats in the Senate while losing fourteen of the House seats they picked up in 2006.
  • “Nothing of any substance will be accomplished by the Congress on any of the following issues: immigration, healthcare, Social Security, education, product safety of imports.”*
  • “President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives”* — nor will any past or former administration official be tried for war crimes.

World Politics:

  • The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal.
  • Pervez Musharraf will still be president of Pakistan at year’s end. One way or the other.
  • Vladimir Putin will still be running Russia at year’s end — but with a new title.
  • Neither the U.S. nor Israel will either bomb or invade Iran.
  • The Lisbon Treaty will fail, forcing a dramatic rethinking of the European Union’s agenda.

Media:

  • Katie Couric will not finish the year as anchor of the CBS Evening News.
  • NBC will pull the plug on one of its cable news ventures.
  • The Wall Street Journal will be a more successful paper with Rupert Murdock running it.
  • Sirius and XM will be allowed to merge.
  • The television writers strike will end but the major networks will never recover their market share, making it a lose-lose proposition.

Sports:

  • The New England Patriots will beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, becoming the first 19-0 team in NFL history.
  • The United States will finally win the gold medal in basketball again, along with the overall gold medal count, in this summer’s Olympic Games. Few will much care.
  • The Boston Celtics will win the NBA championship.
  • The Atlanta Braves will win the World Series with a starting rotation of pitchers in the twilight of their careers.
  • Tiger Woods will win two Majors, passing Bobby Jones and coming within two of Jack Nicklaus.

*Borrowed from Dave’s list.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Sports, US Politics, World Politics, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Michael says:

    “Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary.”

    ROFLMAO!

    20 million reasons I beg to differ Dave…

  2. Bill Moore says:

    I predict you are wrong about Ron Paul and you will say “nobody I know voted for Ron Paul”.

  3. Micah says:

    That’s the beauty of freedom of speech and the internet. Everyone with an opinion can express it, no matter how ill informed or magically derived.

    Start figuring out what wine is best to serve with crow. Ron is catching fire.

    (I suggest a bold red – maybe a merlot?)

  4. Michael says:

    Start figuring out what wine is best to serve with crow. Ron is catching fire.

    And when your prediction of a Hollywood-style Ron Paul win doesn’t pan out, I’m sure all of you will be here admitting that you where wrong…..right.

  5. Cernig says:

    The Lisbon Treaty will fail, forcing a dramatic rethinking of the European Union’s agenda.

    Since it fails if even one out of 27 nations rejects it, the math is on your side. But with the various opt-outs involved, maybe not.

    Even if it fails, the EU will just regroup and try again on an even softer version until a version with opt-outs galore passes and then the opt-outs can be gradually incremented out. Something like the Lisbon Treaty needs to happen if the EU is to continue at all, and there’s too much good about the EU for the member nations to dump it.

    Regards, C

  6. Cernig says:

    The Wall Street Journal will be a more successful paper with Rupert Murdock running it.

    Not a better paper, but a more successful one. With more tits on page three.

    Regards, C

  7. Mike says:

    Ron Paul and the Green Bay Packers are going to be the big winners in ’08! Before you roll your eyes, who would have thought 5 months ago that the Packers had a chance, or that Ron Paul would have been this big at this point. Who wants it more?

  8. bgodley says:

    Here is what I predict.

    The ecomony becomes the biggest issue as it slides big time. All those bad economic indicators come home to roost in 2008.

    – The foreclosure rate hits near 3 million.
    – Gold continues to rise and oil will hit $150 barrel ($100 today).
    – Job reports will start going south.
    – Our record spending catches up with us and foreign central banks stop loaning us money as happened with foreign private investment a year ago.
    – Consumer prices go up and dollar drops out the bottom.
    – Foreign investors and govts. instead of dumping dollars they now hold and taking huge losses continue to resort to using Sovereign Trust Funds to purchase American assets at record rates.
    – We DON’T add 100,000 troops since recruiting is at an all time low (fact)! Some excuse begins to rise to intiate a draft.
    – We continue to lengthen tours of duty and soldiers morale continues to drop, especially among national guard units who aren’t supposed to be serving full time active duty.
    – Iraq does not become safer and public resentment goes beyond the 72% that want us out already.
    – Americans wise up. They begin to fully realize their position and look for some answers and big change. Ron Paul’s grassroots support grows exponentially as he begins to look more and more sage despite earlier pundit pot shots and mockery.
    – We find out that the crackpots and loons were the ones that were accussing Paul of what they themselves were.
    – The word CRANK begins to be widely accepted as a derogatory word for journalists who espouse ideas without fact or merit.

  9. Michael says:

    Ron Paul and the Green Bay Packers are going to be the big winners in ’08! Before you roll your eyes, who would have thought 5 months ago that the Packers had a chance, or that Ron Paul would have been this big at this point. Who wants it more?

    I predict that the Miami Dolphins will win the Super Bowl, and Ron Paul will win the the Republican nomination.

  10. Eric says:

    Paul won’t win a single primary? Do you know something the rest of us don’t? He won’t win Michigan, where all they have an open primary and all the Dems but Hillary took their names off the ballot? He won’t win Alaska? He won’t win ANY? Care to put any money on that?

  11. eric says:

    “Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote.”*

    This coming from a defense contractor. I bet you are shaking in your boots and pray to the almighty dollar every night, that this prediction comes true.

  12. Dustin says:

    Dr. Paul will win the nomination. The straw polls show he has the people’s support.

  13. Louis Lambert says:

    James Joyner your head is in the sand when it comes to Ron Paul.

  14. John says:

    With $20M Paul will be able to throw one hell of a big party to console himself when he packs it in on Feb 15. Heck, maybe he can even invite the Super Bowl Champion Miami Dolphins and the .0001 percent of the U.S. population that knows he is actually running for something.

  15. H.W. says:

    Wow, the Ron Paul folks are in force tonight.