Predictions for 2008
My OTB colleague Dave Schuler made his 2008 predictions on New Year’s Eve but I’ve decided to wait until the first official work day of the year to get a better sense of the lay of the land.
- The Republicans will eventually nominate someone, pundit chatter about a divided base notwithstanding.
- “Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote.”*
- The eventual president will be either a Democrat or Republican, regardless of whether Ron Paul, Mike Bloomberg, or anyone else runs on a third party ticket.
- The winner will be a Protestant white guy, defying predictions of the First Woman, First Black, or First Mormon President.
- The Guinness Book folks will have some consolation, if my prediction of John McCain winning the whole thing pans out, in having the oldest man ever elected to a first term.
- The Democrats will retain both the Houses of Congress, picking up two seats in the Senate while losing fourteen of the House seats they picked up in 2006.
- “Nothing of any substance will be accomplished by the Congress on any of the following issues: immigration, healthcare, Social Security, education, product safety of imports.”*
- “President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives”* — nor will any past or former administration official be tried for war crimes.
- The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal.
- Pervez Musharraf will still be president of Pakistan at year’s end. One way or the other.
- Vladimir Putin will still be running Russia at year’s end — but with a new title.
- Neither the U.S. nor Israel will either bomb or invade Iran.
- The Lisbon Treaty will fail, forcing a dramatic rethinking of the European Union’s agenda.
- Katie Couric will not finish the year as anchor of the CBS Evening News.
- NBC will pull the plug on one of its cable news ventures.
- The Wall Street Journal will be a more successful paper with Rupert Murdock running it.
- Sirius and XM will be allowed to merge.
- The television writers strike will end but the major networks will never recover their market share, making it a lose-lose proposition.
- The New England Patriots will beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, becoming the first 19-0 team in NFL history.
- The United States will finally win the gold medal in basketball again, along with the overall gold medal count, in this summer’s Olympic Games. Few will much care.
- The Boston Celtics will win the NBA championship.
- The Atlanta Braves will win the World Series with a starting rotation of pitchers in the twilight of their careers.
- Tiger Woods will win two Majors, passing Bobby Jones and coming within two of Jack Nicklaus.
*Borrowed from Dave’s list.