Outside the Beltway

Scott Brown For Governor?

Doug Mataconis · Monday, January 14, 2013 · 2 comments

Politico speculates that former Senator Scott Brown may pass on a bid for John Kerry’s Senate seat and make a run at the Massachusetts Statehouse instead:

It’s not often an ex-senator gets a shot at his old job just months after losing. So Scott Brown is widely expected to jump at the chance, running in a special election for John Kerry’s seat that presumably will become vacant within weeks.

But there are compelling reasons for Brown to pass on what would be his third Senate campaign in four years — and he’s thinking long and hard about them.

Topping the list: In 2014, he could run instead for Massachusetts governor, a job that Republicans have had much more success winning and keeping, as Mitt Romney can attest.

Even if Brown were to win an expected late spring special election for the Senate — he would enter as a favorite — he’d have to pick up and do it all over again next year, in a higher-turnout contest that could also be tough to win. A loss in that race could end his political career.

That all makes for a wrenching decision for Brown: To make another run at Capitol Hill or hold off for the chance to reign over Beacon Hill. Sources tell POLITICO he has not made up his mind.

“My sense is that Scott has a good chance of succeeding if he decides to enter the special,” said Republican National Committeewoman Kerry Healey, who served as Romney’s lieutenant governor. “However, there’s a lot of appeal to waiting for the governor’s seat. … There are opportunities in both.”

Notwithstanding its reputation as a Democratic state, Republicans have held the Governor’s office in Massachusetts for 18 of the past 22 years, and the GOP has done so by putting forward relative moderates like William weld, Paul Cellucci, and, yes, Mitt Romney. Scott Brown fits quite nicely into that mold. We’ll know in a few weeks what Brown decides to do, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed on the Senate this time around.