Sweden, Sweden, Sweden!
The data on Sweden and Covid-19 don't fit the media narrative.
This is a persistent right-wing media narrative that Sweden proves that past lockdowns didn’t work and that really, we need to just go one with life in the face of the pandemic. While I am by no means going to try and exhaustively research this topic, I will note that a lot of readily available data undercuts this notion.
(I would note that James Joyner wrote about this back in May and June, as I did in June as well).
Let’s start with a comparison to their Scandinavian neighbors (all data from Our World in Data).
First, cumulative cases per million people:
Or, how about cumulative confirmed deaths per million?
One of these thing is not like the others.
Another way of looking at it would be over time, and we can see here what happened to the trends in Finland and Norway after lockdowns (late March/April):
Also, not shutting down did not avert economic difficulties for the country, as the Business Insider reported back in August: Sweden’s GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy.
Sweden’s GDP fell more than its Nordic neighbours in the second quarter of 2020, dealing another blow to its lockdown-free coronavirus strategy.
Sweden’s official statistics agency said that Sweden’s GDP fell by 8.6% in Q2.
In comparison, Finland’s statistics body said that its Q2 GDP was down 3.2%, and Denmark’s said GDP there was down 7.4%.
Going beyond immediate neighbors and comparing the whole EU, Sweden does worse than almost everyone else in regards to deaths (and note Italy in particular was hit early and did not initially lockdown):
It is a bit more middle-of-the-road in confirmed cases:
I am not saying that these charts and other bits of evidence proves conclusively that Sweden’s approach was inferior to other countries (but it sure does suggest that it was) . At a minimun, however, they really do significantly undercut the simplistic argument that continues to circulate in right-wing circles in the US that Sweden proves that we can just throw the door open to everything and pretend that we do not need to engage in mitigation.
The sub-regional comparisons to the other two Scandinavian countries are especially interesting as they control, to a degree, for things like serious cultural deviations. In that comparison, Sweden did worse both in terms of public health and in terms of the economy. That suggests that there is a heck of a lot more to the story than just a simplistic assertion about opening v. closing.
Let me also note that the choice is not, any never has been 100% open v. 100% closed. That is, quite simply, a lie that no one should fall for.
Regardless, the data are clear: Sweden did not do better than countries that had lockdowns, nor did they do the same. On balance, they did worse, at times much worse.
And, to be clear: this is not the final word on this subject as a lot of research will need to be done to fully assess the impacts of various global policy responses to this pandemic.
I don’t mean to be contrary, but Italy, which served as a model of virus containment last spring, is currently undergoing a surge in Covid-19 cases. The Italian government is trying to reinstitute bar and restaurant closings at 6 p.m., and the response has been rioting, lootings, and attacks on police stations. I posted a link to the Daily Beast article about it in today’s open forum.
This is awful. I’ve said it before, but there’s a good chance people are going to become so nihilistic and so disinclined to believe anything any government says that they’ll either openly rebel or they’ll just say “the hell with it; I’ll do what I want since the virus will kill me anyway.”
Typo alert:
How similar are the cultures, health care systems, population densities, city sizes etc of Sweden, Norway and Finland? My guess is they’re very similar, making the regional comparisons the best. Still, I’ve known a number of Norwegians who dislike Sweden and say its very different than Norway, so it’d be nice to have some confirmation.
minor typo
@OzarkHillbilly: @Teve: Oh well,
We love you, Dr. T, and understand you have busy days.
@gVOR08: it’s assistance, not criticism. 😀
Math is no friend of the right-wing populist. They see Sweden has under 150,000 cases, so they conclude they’re doing well, not taking into account Sweden’s small population (aprox. 10.3 million). They don’t understand percentages or proportionality.
I tried to correct one of our resident contrarians who was insisting that Sweden was a model to follow. It is indeed a right-wing media narrative (a wrong one), that is persistent and they seem impervious to facts.
@Jen: Don’t worry. Soon the narrative will be: Universal healthcare and democratic socialism doesn’t work.
@gVOR08: I saw that one too but it didn’t bother me because I didn’t have to read it 3 times to make sure it was contradicting itself. I try not to be pedantic just for sake pedantry.
When James noted COVID deaths had passed U. S. deaths in WWI, I noted for further reference that WIKI says the U. S. lost 419,400 souls from WWII. Someone on TV last night said our COVID death rate exceeds the rate of U. S. war deaths due to WWII. Said that COVID deaths so far this year exceed war deaths in 1944. I’m sure glad Biden wants the job, COVID’s going to be badly out of control by the time he takes office.
Funny, isn’t it? Mass deaths are actually bad for GDP growth. Who’d a thunk it?
@OzarkHillbilly: @OzarkHillbilly: @gVOR08: Thanks, all.
I did write this one in a bit of a hurry and crossed my fingers when I hit “publish”
🙂
@Teve: It is definitely assistance.
The “Daily confirmed covid-19 deaths per million” graph is the one that right wingers are pointing to, it seems to me. Things were harrowing for a while, but now the death rate in Sweden is about the same as in Finland or Norway.
Of course, this argument volunteers fellow Americans (or Swedes) for death. I’m pretty sure they aren’t volunteering their own parents or grandparents or favorite Aunt May. They think that somehow “someone else” will be the one to die. Those folks in the big city, or that work in the meat packing plant, or …
This is a very human thing, I think. It’s because of specific leadership (or lack thereof) that this human tendency has coalesced in one party.
@Jay L Gischer:
As others regularly note, it also leaves out chronic Covid induced post Covid ailments. They seem to think that death is the only possible negative outcome from Covid despite plentiful evidence to the contrary.
@Jen:
This redundant sentence brought to you redundantly by the Department of Redundancy Department.
@Jay L Gischer: Speaking only for myself, of course, my personal preference would be for the people who work in the meat packing plants to not be the ones who die from Covid-19. I like eating meat and would definitely feel a lacking in my life if supplies were to shorten beyond what they already have.
@Jay L Gischer:
Sure they are. If the past year has taught us nothing else, it’s that Republicans just don’t care. They literally don’t care about anything but $$ and power. They could give a flying f**k about Aunt May.
Part of why Sweden has managed only as badly as they have, rather than much, much worse, is that they have universal health care and a robust safety net. People are getting the care that is available without ruining their families. That is part of the Swedish Way for handling Covid.
Given how many people die of preventable diseases in this country, how long would it take for the extra deaths from a Swedish approach to Covid to be balanced out by better health care if we really went the Swedish Way?
IIRC correctly Sweden has one of the highest rates of single person households in the first world. That should also help them.
Steve
The fact there were limited compulsory limitations on people’s movements in Sweden doesn’t mean they didn’t comply with extensive voluntary limitations. It’s been widely reported that in fact the government recommended a raft of measures similar to those enforced in many other countries, and Swedes largely followed the recommendations.
This is the exact opposite of the attitude common among Trump Republicans, that they ain’t gonna tolerate any goddam changes in their usual way of life, because that would mean the virus had won.
@Ken_L:
And, indeed, that was the whole point of the Swedish model. They’re not governed by morons. Rather, those in charge believed the culture would simultaneously revolt against being told what to do and yet self-police into doing the right thing.
Just a Scandinavian reaction to the
You missed one Scandinavian neighbor, Denmark, and included a Nordic neighbor, Finland, instead.
@Jay L Gischer: When my Freedom Caucus/Tea Party congressman started yapping about herd immunity, I asked him when he was going to volunteer him and his family to go to a COVID party or something in order to personally contribute to the country’s herd immunity. I didn’t get an answer.
@Torbjørn Jensen: Thanks for the correction. As I noted above, I wrote this is a bit of a rush and was trying to remember the difference between Nordic (which is what I originally used) and Scandanavian (which I went with), but was wrong in my deployment (I also almost included Denmark).
I should have just skipped the descriptor!
@Ken_L: To quote the title of a Kojak episode, “Death is not a passing grade.”
@Gustopher:
I wonder what the chances are of the same conservatives who applaud Sweden’s approach to Covid also applauding Sweden’s approach to public health care?
I think you’re very right, having public healthcare gives a country much more flexibility in how to approach a pandemic.
The global, human cost of lock-downs surpasses the costs of not locking down by an order of magnitude. It’s unbearable that so many people supposedly concerned with statistics and the human suffering of COVID-19 refuse to see that.
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/covid-19-puts-265-million-risk-hunger-pandemic-experts-say
https://www.city-journal.org/deadly-cost-of-lockdown-policies
Your first link opens (my emphasis):
At no stage does it make any argument about the comparative impact of lockdowns v no lockdowns. Its single mention of lockdowns is to note they are one of several factors causing hardship. I didn’t bother looking at your link to a right-wing propaganda site.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/new-lockdowns-ordered-across-europe