Trump & Carson Remain At The Top, Christie & Kasich In Danger Of Missing Main Debate Stage

Donald Trump and Ben Carson are still the top two candidates in the GOP race, while Chris Christie and John Kasich appear to be in danger of being relegated to the "KIds Table" debate at the end of the month.

Republican Debate September 16 Two

A new poll from Fox News Channel shows that Ben Carson has reached a point where he is essentially statistically tied with Donald Trump in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, but the real news seems to be what this poll and others that have been taken recently say about who will be invited to be on the main stage at the next Republican Debate:

Ben Carson is giving Donald Trump a run for his money, according to the latest Fox News national poll.

Support for Carson in the race for the Republican nomination has nearly doubled in the last two months, he is seen by voters as being more ethical than others, and he has the largest number of GOP primary voters who say they would definitely vote for him.

That makes him well-positioned to overtake Trump.

In addition, the poll tested an array of general election match-ups and Carson is the only Republican to get 50 percent support.  In a Carson vs. Hillary Clinton contest, he has the advantage by a 50-39 percent margin.

Running down the GOP race:  Trump remains in the top spot with 24 percent, closely followed by Carson at 23 percent.  Ted Cruz is third with 10 percent.  Those are the only three who receive double-digit backing from Republican primary voters.

Next, it’s Marco Rubio (9 percent), Jeb Bush (8 percent), Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee (5 percent each), and Rand Paul (3 percent). The remaining candidates garner one percent or less.

Carson has climbed 11 points since mid-August when he registered at 12 percent, while support for Trump has mostly held steady.

Support for fellow outsider Fiorina is only about half what it was after the September debate, in which she was widely hailed the winner.

Voters are also asked to name their second-choice candidate.  When first and second-choice preferences are considered together, Carson (41 percent) actually has the edge over Trump (37 percent).

The new poll finds the largest number of voters, 42 percent, thinks Carson is more ethical than the typical politician.  President Barack Obama (35 percent) and Vice President Joe Biden (34 percent) come closest to matching Carson’s appeal on this measure.

Far fewer voters consider Clinton (21 percent), Cruz (22 percent), Trump (22 percent) and Bush (24 percent) more ethical than the average politician.

Half of voters say Clinton (50 percent) is less ethical than the typical official, and nearly half say the same of Trump (49 percent).  Thirty-nine percent say Obama is less ethical than others.

(…)

Never say never.  Eighteen percent of GOP primary voters would “never” vote for Trump.  That’s down significantly from the 33 percent who said so in August and the 59 percent in June.

For now, Carson gets the lowest never-vote-for number of the candidates tested — six percent.  Rubio also does well with a low nine percent “never” rating.  Bush does the worst at 22 percent.

On the positive side, 46 percent of GOP primary voters would “definitely” vote for Carson.  That’s more than double the number that felt that way in August (20 percent).  Thirty-seven percent would “definitely” vote for Trump, 34 percent for Rubio, 31 percent for Cruz, 30 percent for Fiorina and 26 percent for Bush.

Carson’s rise in the polls is something that we have seen consistently develop since before the second Republican debate on September 16th, and the headline that most people will draw from this is that Trump is weakening while Carson is gaining strength. Looking inside the numbers, though, this doesn’t really tell the entire story. It’s true that overall Donald Trump has seen his numbers decline nationally since the second debate, however as I noted last week it seems clear that fall that began at that point has leveled off to some degree. In this Fox News poll, for example, Trump’s 24% compares favorably to the 26% he was at in the last Fox News poll taken less than a month ago and is in fact within the margin of error for that poll. Additionally, it should be noted that Carson’s close proximity to Trump in this poll is not consistent with other recent national polling that has been done so far. In the CBS News poll that was released last week, for example, Carson (21%) was six point behind Trump (27%), and in the RealClearPolitics national average Trump is averaging 23.4% whereas Carson is at 19.1%. So, while Carson has risen in the polls over the past month, it’s not clear how substantial that rise has actually been and it doesn’t really appear to have come at Trump’s expense so much as it has come at the expense of other candidates, some of whom may find themselves relegated to the undercard debate at the end of this month.

Outside of Trump and Carson, there are no other candidates in double digits in either the Fox News poll or the poll averages, and many of them are in danger of slipping into oblivion. Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who has gotten some press as a rising star in recent weeks despite his somewhat disappointing fundraising numbers, is in third place in the national poll averages and seems well-positioned to rise further if he can. Behind Rubio is a former rising star, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who has clearly slipped in polling since the second debate although she did raise an impressive $6.8 million in the recently concluded fundraising quarter. After Fiorina comes Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz, both of whom are holding steady around seven percent in the national poll averages. This aren’t great numbers, obviously, but they’re good enough to keep them in the race.

The candidates who are in trouble to one degree or another, outside the obvious choices of people like Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal who have been polling below 1% since this race began, are candidates like Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and John Kasich, one or more of whom could find themselves excluded from the main stage of the October 28th debate on CNBC. Last month, CNBC announced that only those candidates polling at 2.5% or above in a select group of polls — basically those conducted on behalf of the broadcast and cable networks and Bloomberg News — will be invited to the main debate. The remainder will be invited to the undercard debate as long as they’ve polled 1% in at least one poll between September 16th and October 17th. Using that criteria, here’s what the GOP race looks like using only the polls that CNBC will consider, as determined using Pollster’s interactive tools:

Pollster Oct 14

 

Based on these numbers, both New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Ohio Governor John Kasich, who have slipped significantly in the national polling, would be excluded from the main debate stage at the end of the month. Indeed, assuming that these calculations are similar to those that CNBC will use to determine who is invited to the next debate, it would seem almost impossible for either candidate to perform well enough between now and whatever polling is released between now and Saturday to get to the threshold that has been established for an invitation to the main debate.

When these criteria were first announced, I noted that there were several candidates on the bubble, and while it appears that Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee have done well enough in the relevant polls to ensure a spot on the main stage, Christie and Kasich have largely disappeared from the spotlight. This will likely spell trouble for the viability of their campaigns going forward. Making the undercard debate in the first debate in August, or even the second debate last month, was not necessarily fatal to anyone’s campaign. It did help Carly Fiorina get enough of a bump in the polls to get into the main stage debate last month, and Rick Perry never did recover from being relegated to what pundits have taken to calling the “Kid’s Table” debate in August, but beyond that failure to make it into the prime time debate hasn’t necessarily had much of an impact on the race. That may not be true going forward, though. The fact that Christie and Kasich may end up being forced to share a debate stage with candidates who are averaging 1% or less in the relevant polls is something that is likely to diminish the image of campaigns that a lot of people, including a lot of donors, are already beginning to write off. It’s possible, I suppose, that one or both of them could do so well compared to the rest of the rouge’s gallery making up the undercard debate to get them rising in the polls again, but that’s not likely and with the time when people actually start voting getting closer and closer, the amount of time for them to fix the downward trajectory of their campaigns is running short.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics, , , , , , , , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020.

Comments

  1. stonetools says:

    Looks like the Republican base is decisively opting for the crazy in 2016.Essentially the base is saying to the Republican Party :

    “You made us all kinds of promises-about self financing tax cuts, about rolling back the programs of the crazy Kenyan usurper that were supposed to bring disaster, about turning back the clock to 1955 when women and minorities were in their place and all was right with the world. We’re going to hold you to it by nominating candidates that are regurgitating precisely the nonsense you encouraged us to listen to and believe in on Fox News and talk radio. No more pivoting back to sanity in the general, dagnabit! We’re riding the true conservative train all the way to November!”

    If so, good. Let’s have a clear choice come November 2016 and settle once and for all what vision the country will follow.

  2. grumpy realist says:

    I can’t be the only one who thinks that what’s going on is “Flavor of the Week.”

    Ben Carson will be the favorite until the Base get tired of him and flitter off after someone else.

  3. al-Ameda says:

    In addition, the poll tested an array of general election match-ups and Carson is the only Republican to get 50 percent support. In a Carson vs. Hillary Clinton contest, he has the advantage by a 50-39 percent margin.

    First, this is a Fox News Channel Poll, so get hazmat advice before you ‘consume’ it.

    Second, 50% of the people are desperate enough to elect a crazy neurosurgeon? Interesting, 50% is 23% higher than the ‘normal’ 27% crazification factor.

    You just can’t make this up.

    It also looks like Ted Cruz is well-positioned once Trump and Carson fall into the elevator shaft.

  4. michael reynolds says:

    The top 3 are actually Trump, Carson and Cruz, unless I’ve misread the chart. Rubio is in 4th place. Which means the top three spots are occupied by a buffoon, a nut and a psychopath, respectively.

    And that’s the party you prefer to Hillary.

    But setting that aside, the Fiorina boomlet has died out, and there can be no better news for me as a Democrat than the possibility of Kasich being sent down to the kid’s table. If Kasich goes, the party will be down to just little Marco Rubio as a viable national candidate.

  5. SenyorDave says:

    I get Trump. Can’t stand him, loathed him when I worked in NYC in the 80’s, still remember his lynch mob mentality regarding the Central Park Five (who turned out to be innocent) back in the day. But I can understand his appeal to a very limited group of the GOP. He also has energy, and a message for the disaffected whites who can’t believe that their tax dollars are going to “those people”.

    But Carson? He seems half asleep during the debates, offers virtually no ideas other than the occasional “liberals have ruined everything” blather. When questioned, he clearly demonstrates that he has no understanding of basic policy matters. I just don’t get the appeal?

  6. Mu says:

    Right now Carson is pulling the “Nice Guy” vote. If he truly gets close to the nomination and people are realizing his political opinions make Bill Cosby’s dating habits a mild aberration in comparison these 50% over Clinton will go down faster than the NYY in the playoffs.

  7. CSK says:

    Trump told George Stephanopoulos this morning that he looked forward to attacking Carson on the basis of Carson’s lack of experience in foreign affairs.

  8. Stan says:

    Carson’s popularity chips away at the notion that all Republicans are racist. Crazy, maybe, extremist, probably, but not bigoted enough to base their vote solely on race.

  9. Surreal American says:

    @michael reynolds:

    How about Jeb’s tactic of waiting until all the other GOP candidates squander their opportunities?

  10. michael reynolds says:

    @Stan:

    Nah, not really. Your better class of racist loves a Tom, always has. Besides, they know he’s not going to be the nominee, so this is all kabuki.

    @Surreal American:

    The problem Jeb has is that he’s just been so weak for so long. He looks like the nerd on the playground who keeps having his lunch money stolen, day after day after day. You can feel sorry for that kid, but you’re not giving that kid control of the world’s mightiest military. Maybe he can turn that around, but it would take an effort he doesn’t seem to have the intellect, instincts or will to pull off.

  11. stonetools says:

    My guess that the only way Rubio, Bush, and Kasich get back into it is to start shoveling the same red meat that the base has been addicted to. Trump and Carson aren’t winning because they are flavor of the month ; they are winning that they are shoveling up the stuff the base likes in its pure form, unadulterated by sanity. If someone is giving you the pure stuff, you stick with them and you ignore the dealers who are cutting the stuff.
    Now it’s still three months out and a lot can happen. But right now it looks like the base isn’t listening to the Krauthammers, Brookses and the other pundits who are calling for a return to ostensible sanity, dog whistle deniability, and the safe establishment way. They want that sweet, seductive pure stuff, the way they are used to getting it on talk radio, Newsmax and Fox News.
    Don’t be surprised if you see Rubio, Bush, and Kasich start pandering to the crazy in order to drive their numbers up. They’ve done some sucking up to the base already: I will be surprised if they don’t start pandering in earnest by the next debate.

    “I’ve seen the light. I too promise to build a wall, and it will even be higher than Trump’s wall.”
    “No abortions under any circumstances whatsoever: it’s the only way to be sure we’ll save ALL the unborn.”
    “Drilling for oil in Yellowstone Park? Why not?”
    “Tearing up the Iran deal on Day One? I’ll start a war with Iran AND Russia on day one.”
    “The Patriot Act? Ladies and gentlemen, I’ll give you the Super Patriot Act! That will make us secure, once and for all.”

    “True conservatism”? You ain’t seen nothing yet

  12. charon says:

    @SenyorDave:

    But Carson? He seems half asleep during the debates, offers virtually no ideas other than the occasional “liberals have ruined everything” blather. When questioned, he clearly demonstrates that he has no understanding of basic policy matters. I just don’t get the appeal?

    Good Christian outweighs all those negatives you cite with people who are really into that worldview

    .@Mu:

    But Carson? He seems half asleep during the debates, offers virtually no ideas other than the occasional “liberals have ruined everything” blather. When questioned, he clearly demonstrates that he has no understanding of basic policy matters. I just don’t get the appeal?

    What I can’t understand is why his poll numbers have been rising, now that his negatives have been getting attention from the media, it’s hard to believe cray-cray sells that well.

    For what it’s worth, I figure the guy exhibits Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

    @Stan: BS! There is nothing racists love more than a black BFF who spews racist talking points.

  13. Pete S says:

    The new poll finds the largest number of voters, 42 percent, thinks Carson is more ethical than the typical politician. President Barack Obama (35 percent) and Vice President Joe Biden (34 percent) come closest to matching Carson’s appeal on this measure.

    Don’t the Republicans surveyed understand the question? Shouldn’t essentially half of politicians be “more ethical than the typical politician” and the other half be less ethical? As a group a majority of Republicans believe that none of their presidential candidates are more ethical than a typical politician. Looking at the group I can’t disagree with them.

  14. Stan says:

    I think Ben Carson’s wrong about the economy, even more wrong when it comes to social welfare policy, and bonkers when he talks about how Jews could have prevented the Holocaust if only they’d had guns. But I don’t see racist talking points in his pitch and I don’t see him as an Uncle Tom. Trump and Cruz are genuinely evil, and Fiorina and Huckabee may be, but Carson is just dumb outside his specialty.

  15. Dave Francis says:

    If you voted for King Obama, then you obviously going to vote for a Democrat in 2016 and will be adding $$ billions of more dollars to the huge $$19 trillion deficit, ($$10 Trillion applied to Obamacare) and all the welfare treats that they pass out to the 11 to 30 million illegal aliens and the disregard for growing needs of our Veterans. Then consider the ‘Freeloaders’ the spongers who have become a virus, to live off other peoples money. Obama’s government pays it all, without any restrictions or very rarely any inspections. Where does your tax dollars go, fraudulent child credits of the progeny of illegal aliens using stolen Social Security numbers from the deceased, our soldiers abroad or even the new born babies of American citizens.

    What do we get in return–NOTHING, because they never paid into the system whereas taxpayers have contributed since they first started work. There is a special name for these children ‘Anchor Babies’? What does that mean, their illegal parents smuggle or birth their offspring here, so they are unlikely to be deported. The cost is becoming unpredictable as it rises every year? Statistics are inaccurate because the federal, state and municipal governments hid it mostly from prying eyes. Where will it end under the Democrats, Liberals, the Republicans–NEVER–as it intentionally grows fainter and our immigration laws end up in the trash. Who are to blame the Cheap labor purveyor in the GOP and the Democrats more voters–illegal or lawful for there cause?

    I am no longer listening to the teleprompter career class in both parties, as the majority in both debates try to outshine each other. I am all for somebody who will turn America around. Donald Trumps billions of dollars doesn’t cause me to flinch, but his hard nosed, aggressive refusal in taking secret cash from big corporate donors or the mega money machine that influences United States politics does? He is a winner; rough in his speech, but directly to the point. Nothing hidden behind the masquerade of the Clinton’s, Bush or Bernie Sanders or those who strive for greater power. Hillary Clinton is unworthy to gain access to the highest office in the land; her monetary tactics must be approached with suspicion? A foundation taking foreign contributions and just as plausible with the money given to prospective candidates in the Presidential race, the donors all want something back in return. America frantically needs a neutral voice and that is Trump who cannot be touched by intimidation, money and inducement.

    With Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton they will grant a pathway to citizenship through amnesty; free Obamcare and as Bernie Sanders has proclaimed free college education for everybody and that means illegal aliens. California Governor Jerry Brown, a reject from the early 60’s is issuing drivers licenses to illegal aliens and soon access to Obamacare when the Golden State has phenomenal deficits. He is preoccupied in granting foreigners that have violated the law, the same privileges as citizens. Another stealth design for that state is the Motor Voter law, as illegal aliens collect this state sponsored drivers license can register to vote? California, a Liberal state along with Oregon has a deliberate advocate tactic to get illegal aliens to vote.

    Think it does not effect other states–think again? Americans keep sitting on your hands and saying nothing. By not contacting your House Representative or Senate members and speaking out. Giving illegal aliens drivers licenses, attorney licenses and running for local committees will eventually lead to giving the vote and we will have a one party system, not indifferent to Russia, China where government controls your every move? Obama has already soiled our Constitution with overreach preferential treatment to criminal illegal aliens and has done zero to repealing Sanctuary City ordinances–completely in opposition to federal law. The outcome is the death of citizens by pariah illegal aliens whose activities remain intangible, until a unbiased media outlet publicized the slaughter, such as the killing in extreme Liberalized San Francisco.

    Instead of the pandering to the unknown numbers of illegal aliens squatting here, we should assign that money to welfare of our own people. To reiterate every state should have several asylums for the criminal insane. Lockups as the British penitentiary on the moors, an open region with marsh and quicksand, with one road in, and one road out as Broadmoor. Escape is impossible? Mentally disturbed people are to blame for the gun violence, not the guns? Criminals will always access to guns and honest citizens need to be armed, to protect house and home.

    But in the debates I have heard hardly a word from all politicians about our suffering Vets? In the latest Democratic clown debate, they cannot escape the rationale that all three candidates of two Professional politicians and one Leninist ‘Outsider’ tend to pander to foreign nationals than our military. Trump does and he will build on the ailing service personnel of low numbers, with emphasis on recruitment, new aircraft, ships and heavy armaments the likes of what our enemies have never seen before–for our security at home and abroad? Trump will endeavor to make the Veterans Administration accountable for wrongdoing and a 100 percent better concern, instead of the desperate need for charities to care for the maimed and disturbed from battle fatigue.

    This is why Donald Trumps–wall–from when the voters proclaiming him president? If its high enough we will see the tracks illegal aliens used like pack animals carrying packs of elicit drugs through fearful landowners property along the border vanishing. That the policing of the border will be much easier on a fast roadway by the US Border Patrol, and the infrequent aid of local police authority that will be much safer from the drug cartels and that regions in our OWN country will be accessible to US citizens once again. The incessant coverage by unmanned drones will immediately detect any movement along the wall, before whole groups of more poverty struggling across the concertina razor wire.

    Those younger illegal aliens will not find it so simple under the new immigration laws that were not supported by previous Presidents to find work. Trump will sign into law, through executive order if need be MANDATORY E-VERIFY. That not only cuts-off jobs, but imposes serious punishments for illegal aliens and the business owners who hire them. no jobs,
    Two websites of interest: Judicial Watch and One America News Network. Pass this on.
    they are on there way home, from whatever country?

  16. charon says:

    @Stan:

    IIRC, Carson has talked of the “Democrat Plantation,” which is viewed as a racist characterization of POC preference for Democratic politicians.

    You may view Carson as “just dumb,” your opinion, I see Carson as vastly more evil than any you named. I don’t even see Trump or Fiorina as evil, just as oppurtunists.

  17. michael reynolds says:

    @Dave Francis:

    Out of curiosity, which is it you hate more, Mexicans or English spelling and grammar?

  18. Stan says:

    @charon: My best friend in high school back in Wisconsin rose from wretched beginnings to a white collar position. He viewed people who were born poor and stayed poor as lazy. If he could do it, why couldn’t they? Where I used to live, Ann Arbor, one of the most prolific contributors to the local Letters to the Editor column was a black woman, also born in poverty, who felt the same way as my friend. I don’t think “evil” is a good way to characterize people like this. On the other hand, I don’t have any qualms about applying the word to Trump, a racist himself or at least willing to appeal to racists, or to Cruz, our present day Joe McCarthy.

  19. CSK says:

    @michael reynolds:

    The website http://www.grammarly.com recently did an analysis of the grammar acuity and vocabulary of the supporters of various candidates (Democratic as well as Republican) as these were reflected in Facebook postings.

    Trump fans had, by an overwhelming percentage, the worst grammar and smallest vocabularies of any posters.

  20. stonetools says:

    The good thing about Dave Francis and James P when they post is that they remind us that there is a deep well of right wing resentment, craziness and bigotry that is as yet untapped even by the Trumps, Carsons,and Cruzes. Obama was unaware of this at the time of his inauguration which is why he came in talking about “reasonable bipartisan compromise”, “hope and change”, “commonsense solutions, ” “no red or blue America”, etc. Sadly , he knows better now. I doubt that HRC ever believed Obama’s kumbah yah approach would work, and she certainly does not believe it now. Bernie doesn’t either, but I can tell by his rhetoric that he believes the forces of conservatism are far weaker and less resilient that they in fact are, and that they can be overwhelmed by this great groundswell of liberal sentiment that will surge up once the pure gospel of democratic socialism is proclaimed throughout the land. Boy, I wish that were true but everything I’ve seen in politics since 1980 tells me that is untrue.
    Q believes in the pure gospel, but unfortunately the elections of 1972, 1980, 1984, and more lately 2010 and 2014 are irrefutable proof that the believers in the pure gospel are far too few.
    Liberals should think of Clinton as a bridge and a bulwark- a bulwark against the terrible dangers of a Republican Presidency and a bridge to a future time when the Democrats can regain enough political power to actually accomplish the kind of agenda Sanders and his followers dream of. That day is far off-most likely beyond the 2020 redistricting process. Until then, we need someone in White House who can play defense and grind out incremental progress, mostly through executive action and court appointments. That’s not a recipe for glory, but it’s the best we can expect.

  21. Mu says:

    @michael reynolds: Internet winner of the day

  22. Tillman says:

    I really don’t see Cruz getting the nomination. He resembles to an eerie extent a puppet that has recently come to life. He reminds me of the cover of that one Goosebumps book.

    Okay, I’m sorry for body-shaming Ted Cruz. He won’t get the nomination because he’s an unrepentant asshole. “So are the rest of them,” you might reply, and I would retort, “but that’s all Cruz’s got.” Trump has boisterousness and entertainment value; Carson [apparently] has an ethical streak that disguises how loony he is; Rubio bothers being briefed on shit; Fiorina has two X chromosomes; and Huckabee and Paul have evangelical and libertarian bona fides respectively. Cruz has nothing else but assholery. That’s not diverse enough a resume to make it in today’s Republican primary. Seriously, his greatest claim is he engineered a government shutdown that gave shade to Obamacare rollout failures for almost half a month.

    Not to say he can’t improve his chances if he branches out somehow beyond being an asshole, but he hasn’t struck me so far as a dude whose capable of such. If GOP elites coalesce around him (and why the hell would they given the shutdown shenanigans?) he could take it, but my bet is still Rubio.

  23. charon says:

    @Tillman:
    Cruz has Daddy’s theocratic Seven Mountains Mandate which seems pretty Christian to me.

    My Book:

    JEB! 10 to 1

    Cruz: 10 to 1

    Rubio: 7 to 3

    Trump: 1 to 1, even money

    That woks out to 49 to 1 for anyone else.

    Note that Cruz is still raising lots of money (second only to JEB), I have read Cruz has one of the best ground games. I think Cruz is playing a long game, will be around a long time.

  24. J-Dub says:

    @michael reynolds: Michael, stop mocking him and and just answer the damn question: “Who are to blame the Cheap labor purveyor in the GOP and the Democrats more voters–illegal or lawful for there cause?”

  25. Tillman says:

    @charon: Eh, I don’t know. It seems every heavily-identified Christian conservative is a Dominionist nowadays. It fits the culture war too well. But I don’t believe Cruz’s played that card as well as Huckabee has, which could just be a matter of longevity.

  26. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Dave Francis:

    Zeldorf?

  27. bk says:

    In a Carson vs. Hillary Clinton contest, he has the advantage by a 50-39 percent margin.

    Who are they polling? Morons?

  28. bk says:

    @bk: Wait. Now that I have read the rest of the thread, they are polling Dave Francis.

  29. michael reynolds says:

    @J-Dub:

    This is why Donald Trumps–wall–from when the voters proclaiming him president? If its high enough we will see the tracks illegal aliens used like pack animals carrying packs of elicit drugs through fearful landowners property along the border vanishing.

    That’s right, we will see their tracks along the border vanishing.

    Someone is getting really excellent weed.

  30. DrDaveT says:

    @J-Dub:

    answer the damn question: “Who are to blame the Cheap labor purveyor in the GOP and the Democrats more voters–illegal or lawful for there cause?”

    I can’t speak for Michael, but I don’t speak Serbo-Croatian. Ask in English, and I’ll try to answer for you.

  31. al-Ameda says:

    @Dave Francis:

    If you voted for King Obama, then you obviously going to vote for a Democrat in 2016 and will be adding $$ billions of more dollars to the huge $$19 trillion deficit, ($$10 Trillion applied to Obamacare) and all the welfare treats that they pass out to the 11 to 30 million illegal aliens and the disregard for growing needs of our Veterans.

    You pretty much lost me at “King Obama.”
    By the way, the deficit is not $19 trillion, it is less than $500 billion.

  32. Todd says:

    @Stan:

    Carson’s popularity chips away at the notion that all Republicans are racist. Crazy, maybe, extremist, probably, but not bigoted enough to base their vote solely on race.

    But I don’t see racist talking points in his pitch and I don’t see him as an Uncle Tom.

    It’s not that there’s anything Carson himself says or does that is inherently racist. It’s more so the belief among some Republicans who support Carson that his being black will result in Republicans getting a (more than statistically insignificantly) larger share of the black vote. These are people who believe that Barack Obama won the Presidency because he’s black, not in spite of it.

  33. Todd says:

    If Carson by some chance ends up being the Republican nominee, I will probably have to start sharing some of the confidence that many commenters here have in a Democratic victory; even for Hillary Clinton.

    Trump on the other hand worries me.

    He’s too good of a marketer/salesman. Democrats (and mainstream Republicans) will continue to underestimate him at their own peril.

  34. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @michael reynolds: I can’t read his stuff. I was a composition teacher for too long and his writing reminds me of the students who used to ask me “and who are you to tell that I doesn’t write good? Who made you in charge of my grammar?”

  35. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @DrDaveT: When I said I couldn’t understand what he had written to a student who used to write like that, he asked me why I thought the fact that I couldn’t read was his fault.

    It’s a different world.

  36. michael reynolds says:

    @Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker:

    I was at a writer’s event last week and one of the writers asked me if I’d be interested in teaching a bit. I basically laughed in his face. First off, I have now idea how to teach writing and second, why would I want that pain? Fingernails on a chalkboard.

  37. Grewgills says:

    @michael reynolds:
    You could probably do a good creative writing seminar course at a college or community college and you might actually have fun with it.

  38. grumpy realist says:

    @Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker: How old was this excellent fellow?

    Adults with such attitudes usually find themselves not communicating very well to their fellow humans, with expected results on credit loan rates, ability to get and keep jobs, etc.

  39. Stan says:

    @Todd: You may be right about why Carson is popular. The point I’m trying to make, though, is more about liberals than conservatives. Liberals are too free in ascribing racism to their opponents. It’s there, no doubt, but it’s not the only cause of America’s peculiar brand of conservatism, and probably not the dominant cause. And using the racism argument is a sure way of losing any chance of converting your opponent to your way of thinking. It’s our equivalent of calling the president Barack Hussein Obama.

  40. C. Clavin says:

    Seems Trump ginned up a bit of a racist scuffle last night…
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-rally-fight_561f609ce4b0c5a1ce6215cf
    Apparently when Trump says he wants to take America back…it’s back to the race riots of the 20th Century