Outside the Beltway

Waiting For Joe Biden

According to reports, Vice-President Biden may or may not be close to a decision about running for President, and he may or may not be running.

Doug Mataconis · Monday, October 19, 2015 · 9 comments

For two months now, the American political press has been falling all over itself trying to figure out what Vice-President Biden might do regarding getting into the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. While there have certainly been signs that Biden has been laying the groundwork for what might become a Presidential bid, and using the media to do most of that work for him, there have also been signs that the Vice-President seems reluctant to put him and his family through the rigors of a campaign that would no doubt be an uphill battle notwithstanding the fact that he is Vice-President. Most notably, Biden has said in speeches and in an emotional appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert that a person who isn’t emotionally ready for a campaign should not get into the race, and many interpreted those comments as a sign that he was leaning against running. After the first Democratic Debate last week, in which Hillary Clinton performed strongly and appeared to give little argument in favor of a Biden run at this point in the race, conventional wisdom had shifted toward the idea that Biden would stay out of the race. Now, NBC News is reporting that Biden will supposedly make a decision within the next two days, and there are some signs that he may enter the race after all:

Vice President Joe Biden is nearing a decision on if he will enter the presidential race, which could come within 48 hours, two sources tells NBC News.

Biden has been contemplating a presidential run for months and has delayed an announcement beyond supposed timeframes multiple times before. Missing this deadline, of course, could happen again.

In addition to when, the big unknown is what Biden’s decision will be: Is he in our is he out?

Biden’s public schedule gives little indication of his decision. He traveled from his home in Delaware to Washington Monday morning where he will address a climate change summit this afternoon.

If Biden does announce within the next two days, his decision would come before current front runner, Hillary Clinton, appears before the House committee charged with investigating the Benghazi attacks more than three years ago.

This report comes on the heels of a report over the weekend that Biden had spoken to  International Association of Fire Fighters President Harold Schaitberger, an important union leader who has a lot of influence in Democratic politics, as well as other reports purporting to be indications that Biden was entering the race based on overheard comments from Biden aides and others who have formerly served as close advisers to the Vice-President during his campaigns as well as reports about Biden contacting former supporters in early primary states. Additionally, in the wake of the NBC News reports Fox News White House Correspondent Ed Henry reported that sources had told him that Biden was indeed getting in the race, but suggested that the 48 hour timetable should be taken with a grain of salt:

Three sources close to @VP telling me he’s expected to announce he is running but the sources are all urging caution on 48-hr timeline

— Ed Henry (@edhenry) October 19, 2015

And Democratic Pennsylvania Congressman Brendan Boyle made the same report after reminding people that former President Bill Clinton had also entered the race in the October before the election year began:

For people who think it’s too late for Biden to run, worth remembering Bill Clinton entered the 92 race in October

— US Rep Brendan Boyle (@RepBrendanBoyle) October 19, 2015

I have a very good source close to Joe that tells me VP Biden will run for Prez

— US Rep Brendan Boyle (@RepBrendanBoyle) October 19, 2015

At this point, whatever speculation you hear over the next 48 hours, or longer depending on whether or not that time period is an actual hard deadline, is just that, speculation, until we actually hear from Biden himself or there are real signs that he has taken any of the formal steps one needs to in order to run for President. So far, there hasn’t been any real indication that any of that work has been going on at all. Given the fact that at least half the political reporters in the country seem to be on Biden watch at this point, one would think that there would be at least someone who would have uncovered some of those moves. For example, there was plenty of evidence to show that Hillary Clinton was pulling together her Presidential campaign months before she formally entered the race, and the same is true of other candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and others. If you’re running a credible campaign for President, you don’t just wake up one morning and decide you’re going to do it. There’s an entire infrastructure that has to be there for you from the start, and if it isn’t then the campaign is going to be getting off to a slow start. Given the fact that Biden would be getting into the race late, and yes it is late notwithstanding Congressman Boyle’s argument, it would seem to be even more essential that you have that infrastructure in place. While much of that can be done quietly behind the scenes, there would be at least some indications that an intrepid reporter would be able to spot, and I haven’t seen a single report that says this is happening. Given that, and given all the other arguments that have been raised against a Biden candidacy at this point in the race, the logical conclusion would be the Biden isn’t running.

In the end, though, this is as I said all about Joe Biden and what he wants to do. Until we hear from him, we won’t really know the answer no matter how many “sources” a reporter claims to have.