Mitt Romney’s Fuzzy Nomination Math
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James Joyner | Thursday, January 31, 2008 |
Hugh Hewitt looks at the Super Tuesday math and concludes that his guy, Mitt Romney, will still be very much in the race afterwards. I’m rather dubious on his “worst case” scenario actually being that but he’s fundamentally right: McCain won’t have the nomination mathematically sewn up at day’s end.
Still, it’s not looking good for Flipper. Hewitt observes, “And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.” Well, anything could happen. What’s actually likely to happen, though, is that they’ll vote for McCain. After all, Huckabee has gone out of his way to make nice to McCain and attack Romney.
And, as McCain OG Bill Kristol points out, almost all of those who recent polls show supporting Rudy Giuliani will switch to McCain, too, given their guy’s withdrawal and endorsement.
Further, as his TownHall colleague RightTeacher1 points out, under Hewitt’s best case scenario, Romney would need to get 60% of the post-Super Tuesday delegates — 80% under his worst-case scenario — to take the nomination. That’s going to be mighty hard.
via Memeorandum
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
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The minister will stay in just long enough to make sure he has fully played out the role of spoiler for Romney.
That will assure his congregation (and the donation plate) stays full for awhile.
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