Mitt Romney’s Fuzzy Nomination Math

Hugh Hewitt looks at the Super Tuesday math and concludes that his guy, Mitt Romney, will still be very much in the race afterwards. I’m rather dubious on his “worst case” scenario actually being that but he’s fundamentally right: McCain won’t have the nomination mathematically sewn up at day’s end.

Still, it’s not looking good for Flipper. Hewitt observes, “And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.” Well, anything could happen. What’s actually likely to happen, though, is that they’ll vote for McCain. After all, Huckabee has gone out of his way to make nice to McCain and attack Romney.

And, as McCain OG Bill Kristol points out, almost all of those who recent polls show supporting Rudy Giuliani will switch to McCain, too, given their guy’s withdrawal and endorsement.

Further, as his TownHall colleague RightTeacher1 points out, under Hewitt’s best case scenario, Romney would need to get 60% of the post-Super Tuesday delegates — 80% under his worst-case scenario — to take the nomination. That’s going to be mighty hard.

via Memeorandum

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, General, , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. cprince says:

    The minister will stay in just long enough to make sure he has fully played out the role of spoiler for Romney.

    That will assure his congregation (and the donation plate) stays full for awhile.