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Giuliani in Florida Freefall

Rudy Giuliani, despite putting all his eggs in his Florida basket, has dropped to third place in two recent polls (one conducted before Fred Thompson’s withdrawal, one after) even after considering the former poll’s whopping 5.1-point 95% confidence margin, suggesting that Rudy’s strategy of saturating the state with ads before any elections elsewhere had taken place has seriously backfired as events on the ground have rapidly reframed the race as a Romney-McCain contest.

Further complicating things for Giuliani is that the January 29th ballot will also include Amendment 1, a state constitutional amendment that would increase the property tax homestead exemption for most Floridians, which is likely to help drive up turnout in the primary among Florida anti-tax voters who are likely to be social conservatives as well. All-in-all, it looks very likely that Rudy will be joining Duncan, Tom, and Fred in the loser’s lounge before the month is out.

UPDATE (James Joyner): Here are the five most recent polls via RealClearPolitics:

Florida Primary Polls Republicans

Giuliani’s in the mix, certainly, but it’s noteworthy that he’s no better than 2nd in any of them. More telling, the trend lines aren’t exactly going his way:

Florida Primary Polls Republicans Trends

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About Chris Lawrence
Chris teaches political science at Middle Georgia State College in Macon, Georgia. He has a Ph.D. in political science (with concentrations in American politics and political methodology) from the University of Mississippi.

Comments

  1. FireWolf says:

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy

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  2. independent says:

    I’m predicting that Romney will win Florida. I live in a highly Republican part of the state and Romney’s few days here reached a lot of registered Republican voters and created quite a buzz. Giuliani has been here a lot over the last few months but he hasn’t gotten any sort of traction worth speaking of.

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  3. Triumph says:

    It is interesting that Florida is where the terrorists trained for the 9/11 attacks. Given these polls, it looks like the short memories of Floridians are destined to doom the republic.

    Giuliani was basically responsible for saving the world from total destruction on 9/11. Had he not shown his unbridled bravery, his swift decision making acumen, and power of personality on 9/11 we would all be speaking Arabic and wearing burkahs right now.

    Simply put–every American owes their very existence to Giuliani. He averted a second Holocaust and World War Three. The least Floridians could do is vote for him. The future of civilization is at stake.

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  4. Tlaloc says:

    I’d just like to point out that hurricanes happen because God hates southerners. It’s a fact, people. He also hates midwesterners, hence tornados.

    Meanwhile Satan hates California- earthquakes come from the ground and Hell is down below us (READ YOUR BIBLE!).

    Yep Yep.

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  5. Mark Jaquith says:

    Tip of the hat to “Triumph.” You had me until the last paragraph. That’s some quality satire there.

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  6. [...] has now truly become a two-men race (very important: The trend is in Romney’s advantage, he’s surging, McCain going down / staying stable). Republicans have to choose between either Romney or McCain. [...]

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  7. Michael says:

    I’m predicting that Romney will win Florida. I live in a highly Republican part of the state and Romney’s few days here reached a lot of registered Republican voters and created quite a buzz. Giuliani has been here a lot over the last few months but he hasn’t gotten any sort of traction worth speaking of.

    I’m also from a highly Republican part of the state, in rural central Florida, and the vibe I get is that Romney’s religion is going to play more of a role than either candidate’s politics. Bush was largely supported around here because he was the “Christian” candidate, and Kerry’s Catholicism, not just his socially liberal policies, was definitely a point against him with those voters.

    I would also note that there is a large group of people here opposed to Amendment 1, because they believe it will degrade the quality and quantity of government services (Police, Fire, etc). Though most of those people will probably be voting in the Dem primary, probably more will break for McCain than either Romney or Giuliani.

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  8. Zinnger says:

    Adios, Mr. 911. It’s time for you to go write your book now.

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  9. [...] Chris Lawrence @ OTB: Giuliani in Florida Freefall [...]

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