OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252
The election is tomorrow (except for the nearly one fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted) and the polls aren’t any clearer than they were six months ago.
The RealClear Politics average has it Bush 48.5%, Kerry 46.8%, Nader 0.8% (Bush +1.7) for an imaginary three way race. Given that Nader is not on the ballot in several key states, it’s probably slightly closer than that and, regardless, well within the margin of error. Almost all the head-to-head polls have Bush up slightly but within the margin:
See RCP for links to each poll.
The state-by-state polls and resultant Electoral College projections are similarly sketchy with most of them showing both candidates short of the 270 Electors required. RCP’s collection of Battleground State Polls are all over the map in those critical contests. They show Bush with a 1.0% lead in Florida with polls ranging from an 8 point Bush lead to a 3 point Kerry lead; Kerry leading Ohio by 0.6% but almost entirely from a huge lead in the LAT poll; Kerry up 2.0% in Pennslyvania; Bush up 0.2% in Wisconsin but with no pattern in the individual polls; a tie in Iowa but with Bush slightly leading most of the polls; Bush winning New Mexico by 2.0%; Kerry leading New Hampshire by 1.3% but ahead in all polls; and Bush up 0.9% in Hawaii and leading in both polls. Several other “battlegrounds” are going comfortably to the party that won them in 2000.
The aggregators:
- RCP Electoral Count: Bush 227 – Kerry 207
Dave Leip: Bush 244 – Kerry 232 with most of the battlegrounds still “tossup.”
Dale’s Breakdown: Bush 259 – Kerry 238 with leaners included; Bush 222 – Kerry 186 otherwise.
Rasmussen: Bush 222 – Kerry 186
Scott Elliot’s Election Projection: Bush 286 – Kerry 252
Electoral-Vote.com: Kerry 283 – Bush 246
Slate’s Election Projection: Kerry 299 – Bush 239.
For the first time since I’ve been following presidential races (1980-on) I have no real sense of how the election is going to come out. I knew 2000 was going to be fairly close, but thought Bush would win the popular vote by 2% or so and carry the Electoral College with reasonable comfort, even though I was nervous going in. This time, it could well be a relative Electoral College blowout for either candidate. As implausible as the Slate numbers are, they could be right. Similarly, it’s not at all conceivable that Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Pennsylvania could swing to Bush and create the appearance of a blowout even in a race Bush won by 2% nationally.
While I’m rooting for that to happen, my instinct is another squeaker with most close states following their 2000 pattern. I predict that Bush will win a plurality of the popular vote (Bush 49%, Kerry 48%, and Nader 1%) and carry the Electoral College 286-252.*
Bush will carry all the states he won in 2000 minus New Hampshire but pick up New Mexico and Iowa. (Coincidentally, this is the same result envisioned by Scott Elliot.) The magnitude of the win is increased because reapportionment added 8 Electors to Bush’s column and took them from the Democratic column if 2000 repeated itself exactly.
*Caveat: Based on the traditional formula of the plurality winner carrying all electoral votes in a state. The possible faithless Elector in West Virginia and the small chance of Colorado splitting their Electoral votes is not factored in.
Update (ongoing): Others foolhardy enough to make predictions:
- Stephen Green Bush 286 – Kerry 252
- Kevin Aylward: Bush 291- Kerry 247
- Mark the Pundit: Bush 330- Kerry 208
- Les Jones has it Bush 278, Kerry 260 and a rather extensive roundup of blog and MSM predictions.
- Spoons: Kerry 304, Bush 234
- Blackfive: Bush 294 – (Kerry 244)
- Allan (JOTOS): Bush 301- Kerry 237
- Steve Bainbridge: Bush 296 – Kerry 242
- Steven Taylor: Bush 290 – Kerry 248 (identical to mine but with Hawaii going to Bush out of whimsy)
Feel free to comment below if you’ve got a prediction and/or send a TrackBack if you’ve got a prediction on your site.
About James Joyner
Guessing the EC
I would say “analyzing” but “guessing” seems best.
James Joyner
makes his precition and rounds up the last set of EC polls.
Stephen Green has his own list of those Wargaming the Electoral College as well.
I shall make my own prediction b…
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I’m still thinking Wisconsin and at least 3 from NH.
Anyway, the question boils down to this: Are we Aussies or are we Spaniards?
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MacGehee… love your point! I hope we’re Aussies!
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Electoral College Prediction
In 2002, the professional pundits told us that the mid-terms would be extremely close…
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Election Projections…
Tis the season for this sort of thing, so let’s review all the most recent polling and go with a electoral vote map…
Ah, hell, let’s just link and map:
In no particular order:
Real Clear Politics
Daly Thoughts
Election Projection
Electo…
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Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections
Psychics have an easy job. Just make a bunch of predictions. When you’re wrong, keep quiet. When you’re right, remind people endlessly. So for the 2004 election I’m keeping track of predictions to see which ones pan out. I’m concentrating on blogge…
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Prediction Roundup
James Joyner predicts Bush 286, Kerry252. He’s got a round-up of others, which he’s been updating, so I won’t repeat his efforts here. Just check it out. Go read Mark Steyn, too….
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OTBE Electoral Prediction – 291-247 For Bush
All the cool kids are doing it and James Joyner is rounding them up….
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i am getting very nervous now!!!i pray you guys are right!!really,,i am praying
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Prediction 2004
If my prediction is correct, the election will be over before the polls in California close.
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OTBE Electoral Prediction – 291-247 For Bush
All the cool kids are doing it and James Joyner is rounding them up. Ok, it seems like everyone is…
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS
All over the map, as you can see over at Les Jones’s blog who is collecting blogger projections. I am predicting 290 – 248 in favor of Bush. Note that I got to that number by making the assumption that
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Prediction
For what it’s worth, here’s my electoral map (courtesy of http://www.270towin.com) and popular vote prediction. Popular Vote: George W. Bush – 50.7% John Kerry – 47.8% I may be optimistic by including Hawaii–I will confess to being influenced by the…
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My Predictions
I went over to Horserace @ MSNBC and fiddled with the electoral map. This is my prediction for how things will turn out on Tuesday night. I expect Bush to win and to win BIG. I gave him Ohio because the marriage amendment is on the ballot. Despite what…
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But how does the Redskin loss in yesterday’s game play into the mix? Accordin’ to some yahoo on TV, supposedly if the ‘Skins win, the incumbent wins, if the ‘skins lose, the incumbent loses. Up to this point, I figured Bush had the edge, but now I jes’ don’t know. Sportin’ trends are more reliable than astrologists.
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So, You Want A Prediction?
Like most bloggers, I’ve received a slew of emails asking for my prediction on the presidential winner. Well, ok, maybe not a slew. Two, to be precise. And not really two, at that: both were from the same person, who I’d originally ignored, so he re-…
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I’m calling this one for Bush, 300-238.
(Obligatory map here.)
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Official Prediction
I’ve got several posts outlining the reasons, so won’t elaborate too much here. Suffice to say, that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Truly red states will stay red, blue will stay blue. So what of the “purple states”?. Firs…
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My Election Predictions
Well, since everyone else seems to be getting in on the act, here are my election predictions:
PRESIDENT
Popular Vote: Kerry 50 Bush 49 Nader 1
Electoral College:
Kerry: CA (55), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (4)…
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Electoral Vote Predictor
Outside the Beltway has the definitive roundup of other predictions and polling.
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You knew I wouldn’t agree with you on this, James! However, I think we agree on everything but Ohio!
Kerry wins in a squeaker!
Kerry = 49.4% of the popular vote, 272 electoral votes, winning Hawaii, California,
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland,
Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont,
New Hampshire, Maine, and DC)
Bush = 49.1% of the popular vote, 266 electoral votes
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Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction
I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn’t much fun. I have a feeling that analysts can throw conventional wisdom out the window for this one. Unfortunately, that’s all we real…
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Prognosticators
Collecting predictions for tomorrow’s vote. Jeralyn, Talkleft – Kerry 52%, Bush 47%, other 1% Jesse Walker, “It’s going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it.” Jeff Goldstein – “Bush 270 plus; screw John Kerry.”…
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Prognosticators
Collecting predictions for tomorrow’s vote. Jeralyn, Talkleft – Kerry 52%, Bush 47%, other 1% Jesse Walker, “It’s going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it.” Jeff Goldstein – “Bush 270 plus; screw John Kerry.”…
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Election Predictions
President:Bush: 48.9% – 296 EC votesKerry: 48.1% – 242 EC votesOthers: 3%Senate:Republicans: 53Democrats: 46Other: 1House:Republicans: 231Democrats: 204 More predictions from Stephen Green (with a roundup of others), James Joyner (ditto), and various R…
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My Prediction(s)
Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:
Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:
I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…
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I predict Bush 296 (i.e. your 286 plus WI). That’s every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don’t trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.
Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html
For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That’s 348. (I’m extremely skeptical of polls in Hawaii, though if correct they could offer another 4. I also doubt that NJ is actually in play.)
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The Final Slice: It’s the Election Day Toast-O-Meter
–Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election–
Texas Toast or French Toast?Tracking the race to the White House.
FINALLY: It’s Time to Serve the Toast
After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in ea…
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Who Will Win?
George W. Bush, 286-252 electoral votes. As everyone knows, and as Sam Wang meticulously demonstrates, it will all come down to Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio….
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Wow, your prediction is exactly right. Good job!
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Election night Results…
My hat is off to Electoral Projection and to Outside the Beltway for correctly calling the electoral count: 286 Bush 252 Kerry! This is an outright victory for Bush/Cheney! The Ohio Secretary of State has declared that it is statistically…
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Toast Trumps the Crystal Ball
Paul of Wizbang points to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball which called the race to be 269-269 and got all the states right except Florida and Wisconsin. (And I don;t have a research institute, just a messy office!)
However, the Toast-o-Meter came clos…
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And the inevitable prediction
See also Les Jones’s Blogger Roundup. (Update, 3 November, 2:25 pm: Assuming 286-252 holds up, as it appears it will, the Prescience Award goes jointly to James Joyner at…
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Winner of the Election Prediction
http://www.lesjones.com/posts/001431.shtml The final electoral vote tally is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Three bloggers predicted the results: Election Projection, Outside the Beltway, and VodkaPundit. The tiebreaker is the date of the prediction. Outside th…
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