Clinton and Giuliani Ahead in Alabama
Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead likely voters in Alabama as the favorites for their party’s nomination, according to a survey by the Capital Survey Research Center, the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association.
Among likely Democratic voters, Clinton was favored by 35 percent to 19 percent for Sen. Barack Obama, 9 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and 8 percent for former Vice President Al Gore. Eight percent favored other candidates, and 21 percent were undecided.
Among likely Republican voters, Giuliani polled 28 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain 23 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 18 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee each with 3 percent. Two percent favored others, and 23 percent were undecided.
Alabama recently moved its primary to February 5 from its traditional irrelevancy in June, so this may have some small impact on the race.
What’s more interesting to me, aside from my Alabama ties, is that it so closely tracks the national polls. The current RealClear Politics average has the GOP race at Giuliani (38.0%), McCain (21.0%), Gingrich (10.3%), and Rommey (7.3%). For Democrats, it’s Clinton (35.6%), Obama (24.6%), Edwards (12.3%), and Gore (8.4%).
The Clintons generally and Hillary Clinton in particular are widely disliked in Alabama but apparently that doesn’t carry over to the state’s Democratic nominating electorate. That Barack Obama is trouncing much-better-known Southerner John Edwards is somewhat interesting, too.
On the Republican side, Mormon Mitt Romney is doing somewhat less well than in national surveys but otherwise things are tracking well. Either the word on Giuliani’s liberalism on the social issues hasn’t gotten around (a distinct possibility) or people have discounted it because of the “9/11 hero” thing.