Scott Walker Continues To Lead In Wisconsin
With less than a week to go before the recall votes in Wisconsin, it looks like Governor Scott Walker is going to survive:
A new poll by Marquette University Law school shows Wisconsin governor Scott Walker solidifying his lead over his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. Walker now leads Barrett by 7 points–52 percent to 45 percent. In the previous MU Law released two weeks ago, Walker led Barrett 50 percent to 44 percent.
The poll also shows that Rebecca Kleefisch, Walker’s Lt. Governor is leading her Democratic opponent in their recall election. Barring the possibility that all of the recent polling has been wildly off the mark, I’d say it’s looking pretty good for Walker and this recall maneuver is going to turn out to be a big dud.
There is a Dem poll being released today, by a respected pollster, that shows the race a tie.
I think there is a chance for the Dems based on the turnout factor. I suspect that the anti-Walker forces are more highly motivated than the electorate-at-large, and since they are union-based, are also well organized for a special election – an election that is inherently very sensitive to turnout.
Yeah, there is no accounting for likelihood of voting, and of course young people don’t use landlines.
But I am going to call this one for team Evil, and maybe I will get pleasantly surprised.
Marquette’s poll has been among the most reliable polling organization in the state of Wisconsin. And I would tend to discount polling done by partisan firms.
The only “poll” that counts is the one on election day. That said, if Walker holds on it’ll be good news for Wisconsin’s taxpayers and its public school systems along with its local job market. Bad news, of course, for unionized zombie-bots and their abilities to suck from the public’s teat.
@Doug Mataconis:
I was not necessarily disputing the reliability of the poll, as a snapshot of how the universe of voters in Wisconsin feel. The issue though is who, and how many, will actually find their way to the polls and vote in a special election Did the Marquette poll attempt to account for this (important) variable?
I tend to believe that if you’re talking turnout when you’re down 7 points and just a week out, you’re gonna lose.
@Tsar Nicholas: I’m not sure that I understand–how are fewer teachers and larger classes good for the public school system and the local job market?