Scott Walker Leads In Wisconsin Recall Poll

A new poll of the Wisconsin recall race shows Scott Walker and his Lt. Governor leading their Democratic opponents:

A new Marquette Law School Poll shows that with three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided.

(…)

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.

Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin noted, “While both parties show unusual levels of involvement in the campaign, Republicans appear to hold an advantage in likely turnout, although Democrats are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign. In a close election with so few undecided voters, enthusiasm, turnout and campaign contact with voters may make the difference.”

There have been signs in the past that the enthusiasm surrounding the recall effort has been dying off, and this poll would seem to suggest that Wisconsin voters are having second thoughts about changing horses in midstream, and that Wisconsin Republicans are highly motivated to protect their Governor. With only a few weeks left to go until the vote, we may be near the point where Walker can breath easy.

Marquette also asked about the November election and got some interesting results:

Looking ahead to the November election, President Barack Obama is tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 46 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters. In April Obama led Romney by 49 to 45 percent, also among likely voters.

I am still skeptical about the idea that Wisconsin is going to be a swing state in November, but if it is then that would be very good news for Mitt Romney.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Quick Takes, US Politics, ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. G.A. says:

    There have been signs in the past that the enthusiasm surrounding the recall effort has been dying off

    lol, ya like the nearly 300,000 fake signatures….

    But the base is still stealing and burning Walker signs in the streets.

  2. G.A. says:

    oh and did anyone else notice the crickets? lol…..

  3. Tlaloc says:

    lol, ya like the nearly 300,000 fake signatures….

    Link please.

  4. Hey Norm says:

    GA has been proven to be a reality challenged, spineless, partisan hack and all comments by said commenter should be considered in that context.

  5. AllenS says:

    I live in west central Wisconsin, and the pro-Walker signs outnumber the recall signs by 50 to 1.

  6. Tsar Nicholas says:

    I am still skeptical about the idea that Wisconsin is going to be a swing state in November, but if it is then that would be very good news for Mitt Romney.

    I don’t think that should be considered all that surprising. WI has a much lower-than-average percentage of blacks and outside of Madison it has quite the blue collar demographic.

    Concerning the recall, I never really understood the media’s and the unions’ strategy. Every dollar and ounce of effort against Walker is one less dollar and one fewer ounce of effort that could be expended on behalf of Obama. Why go all in against Walker? Why do it this year? If Walker hangs on they’ll have a giant egg on their faces heading into the general election season. They should have waited until this Nov.’s presidential election was in the books and then made a decision on what if anything to do about Walker.

  7. al-Ameda says:

    @G.A.:

    lol, ya like the nearly 300,000 fake signatures….

    It’s fun to make stuff up, isn’t it?

  8. G.A. says:

    It’s fun to make stuff up, isn’t it?

    lol…..so you simply are going to attack me with this nonsense as I still peown you?

    GA has been proven to be a reality challenged, spineless, partisan hack and all comments by said commenter should be considered in that context.

    Look it’s the kool aid bot…

    http://www.westernfreepress.com/2012/03/04/true-the-vote-wisconsin-review-finds-governor-scott-walker-recall-petition-problems/
    lol and check out these incompetent neocom appointed hacks….

    http://www.maciverinstitute.com/

  9. G.A. says:

    Funny thing is that when you and up the votes that are probably real from the recall and the votes the Dem’s got for the recall..lol…………..doh..

    And then lets consider that fraud was afoot in the voting and that a possible 100k-200k republicans crossed over to vote Faulk..geez..

    I am not to hot at math anymore but…maybe Verify the recall missed a few, or a lot of the signers had been bused off to terrorize some other city?

    I think Walker should seal the borders and deport every one from Illinois and a few other places till after the election.

  10. Hey Norm says:

    “…I think Walker should seal the borders and deport every one from Illinois and a few other places till after the election…”

    Why do the nut jobs from the extreme so-called right hate democracy so much?

  11. G.A. says:

    Why do the nut jobs from the extreme so-called right hate democracy so much?

    lol, thats all you could pick out? My joke?There are like a million Daily Kos like hate/fantasy groupish rebuttals on the web to my stats. You could have copied and pasted some of that.

    I’ll take nut job over wing nut though..

    No doubt that I am a nut job, and no do doubt that I Hate me some of what think you is “Democracy” because I don’t care much mob rule thorough voter fraud at all.

    And I damn sure hate me some communism and national socialism.

    Hate hate hate!!!!! lol….

    Tribe and phobia and racist and bigot……..lol…

    I say Communist/Nazi Evolution… so how you like me now?

  12. Hey Norm says:

    What a douche.

  13. Eric the OTB Lurker says:

    @G.A.:

    Sorry, GA, but GAB disqualified about 30,000 signatures, not 300,000. Disqualification is not automatic evidence of fraud, as there are myriads of reasons why signatures are disqualified, ranging from using a P.O. box, to illegible handwriting, etc.

    Even so, do the math with me: 935,000 signatures submitted, 30,000 disqualified = 3.2 percent of the total. That percentage is well within the norm, statistically insignificant, and would not have changed the outcome.

    I know you don’t want to hear any of this, G.A., because it’s more fun to believe in conspiracies (Who DIDN’T love the shooter-on-the-grassy-knoll theory?), but, well, reality can be a tough pill to swallow when you don’t normally live in it.

  14. G.A. says:

    Sorry Eric but what don’t you get about

    lol and check out these incompetent neocom appointed hacks….

    ?

    The GAB? lol are you paying attention? There are complicit…

    Disqualification is not automatic evidence of fraud, as there are myriads of reasons why signatures are disqualified, ranging from using a P.O. box, to illegible handwriting, etc.

    lol idiots and fraud?

    Even so, do the math with me: 935,000 signatures submitted, 30,000 disqualified = 3.2 percent of the total. That percentage is well within the norm, statistically insignificant, and would not have changed the outcome.

    lol what happened to the over a million that was signed off on? Fraud? what happen to 800,000 that my guys came up with?Are they counting the duplicates? What happens to the people that signed off on there recall sheets and swore that there was no fraud on them? Sigh…

    Oh I hope they go to jail some day along with the thousands and thousands of forgers.

    I know you don’t want to hear any of this, G.A., because it’s more fun to believe in conspiracies (Who DIDN’T love the shooter-on-the-grassy-knoll theory?), but, well, reality can be a tough pill to swallow when you don’t normally live in it.

    lol..sigh…Dude why?

    What a douche.

    lol, damn I wish you could be here to talk that **** to my face…. Marxist cricket!!!!!

  15. An Interested Party says:

    …damn I wish you could be here to talk that **** to my face…

    And what would you do? LOL him to death? You can do that right here…

  16. Ron Beasley says:

    7 % change in 2 weeks – Maybe this is why:

    Latest Poll: Conservatives 48% Moderates: 30% Liberals: 20%

    Poll Two Weeks Ago: Conservatives 43% Moderates: 32% Liberals: 22%

  17. G.A. says:

    And what would you do? LOL him to death? You can do that right here…

    I was gonna give him a big hug…But I did think about laughing in his face like real close until he took a swing at me for a few seconds. So I guess might be more correct:)