As End Of First Hundred Days Nears, Trump’s Job Approval Continues To Slump
As he nears the end of his first 100 days in office, President Trump continues to suffer from bad poll numbers.
Heading into the final week of the President’s first 100 days in office, and a week in which Congress will be asked to deal with both trying to avoid a government shutdown on Friday and simultaneously pass a bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, two new polls show that President Trump continues to receive poor marks for his Presidency and that his job approval remains at historically low levels for an incoming President.
First up, a new poll from ABC News and The Washington Post finds the public disapproving of Trump’s job performance even while his core base of supporters continue to stand by him:
President Trump nears the 100-day mark of his administration as the least popular chief executive in modern times, a president whose voters remain largely satisfied with his performance, but one whose base of support has not expanded since he took the oath of office, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Trump’s first months in office have produced some tangible successes. Beyond the continued enthusiasm of his most loyal supporters, a small majority of Americans see him as a strong leader. A bigger majority approves of his efforts to pressure U.S. companies to keep jobs in this country. Those who say the economy is getting better outnumber those who say it’s getting worse by the biggest margin in 15 years in Post-ABC polling.
But the president’s balance sheet overall tilts toward the negative. Majorities of Americans say Trump has not accomplished much during his first months as president. Meanwhile, he shows little improvement on his temperament and honesty, and while he’s gained ground on empathy, over 6 in 10 still say he does not understand the problems of people like them.
With a week remaining before his 100th day in office, Trump has yet to achieve a major legislative accomplishment, having been dealt a major setback when Republicans in Congress decided not to proceed with a vote on a health-care bill supported by the White House. His clearest achievement is the successful nomination of Neil M. Gorsuch to the Supreme Court seat previously held by conservative Justice Antonin Scalia.
Executive actions on trade, immigration, climate and government organization have pointed the direction he wants to take the country, though his controversial proposed travel ban that affects a number of Muslim-majority nations remains blocked by the courts. Trump and others in his administration have attacked the courts, accusing them of overreach, but nearly 6 in 10 people see their actions as a legitimate role for the judicial branch.
Overseas, he has demonstrated his willingness to use military force, with targeted strikes in Syria and the use of one of the biggest non-nuclear devices in the U.S. arsenal in Afghanistan. But tensions with North Korea remain high and the administration’s policy in the Middle East remains cloudy.
(…)
The president’s approval rating stands at 42 percent, the lowest recorded at this stage of a presidency dating to Dwight Eisenhower. Trump’s 53 percent disapproval rating is 14 percentage points higher than Bill Clinton’s 39 percent disapproval in April 1993, the worst before Trump. Eight years ago, then-president Barack Obama’s approval was 69 percent, his disapproval 26 percent.
The Post-ABC poll finds 43 percent of Americans said they strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance. That’s also the worst by far of any president since George H.W. Bush by more than double. In the spring of 1993, 21 percent said they strongly disapproved of Clinton’s performance.
Americans split at 35 percent apiece on whether Trump is doing a better or worse job than expected, with the rest saying he’s neither above nor below their expectations.
There are no signs of major slippage in support among those who voted for Trump. His approval rating among those who cast ballots for him stands at 94 percent. Among Republicans, it is 84 percent. Asked of those who voted for him whether they regret doing so, 2 percent say they do, while 96 percent say supporting Trump was the right thing to do.When asked if they would vote for him again, 96 percent say they would, which is higher than the 85 percent of Hillary Clinton voters who say they would support her again.
Trump is also satisfying the substantial share of the electorate that voted for him with some reservation. Among Trump voters who say they were “somewhat enthusiastic” or less excited about supporting him, 88 percent approve of his current performance and 79 percent say he understands the problems of people like them.
Bill Clinton also had a rocky start to his presidency, which colored public judgments of his presidency by the 100-day mark. Although just 42 percent say Trump has accomplished either a great deal or a good amount so far, that is slightly higher than the 37 percent who said the same about Clinton in 1993.
Similarly, judgments on whether campaign promises have been kept put Trump on about equal footing with Bill Clinton — 44 percent and 42 percent respectively. Also, Trump’s 53 percent positive rating on strong leadership is almost identical to that of George W. Bush’s at this point in his presidency, but much lower than Obama’s 77 percent rating.
Of those who say Trump has not accomplished much, 47 percent pin the blame on him while about a quarter blame congressional Republicans. Only 7 percent say Democrats are to blame.
One of Trump’s biggest deficiencies compared with other presidents is whether he is honest and trustworthy. Fewer than 4 in 10 (38 percent) say he is. At this point in their presidencies, 74 percent said Obama was honest, 62 percent said George W. Bush was honest and a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed 61 percent said Clinton was honest.
Another gap is on the question of whether Trump can be trusted in a crisis. The poll finds that 43 percent — about the same as Trump’s approval rating — say he can be trusted; 73 percent said so for Obama and 65 percent for George W. Bush at this point in their presidencies.
On the specific question of how Trump has dealt with North Korea, 46 percent say he has been about right in his posture, 37 percent say he is too aggressive and just 7 percent say he is too cautious.
On most questions about his performance or characteristics, Trump receives more negative than positive ratings. The most notable exception is his effort to pressure U.S. companies on the issues of keeping jobs at home, where 73 percent of Americans approve, including 54 percent of Democrats.
(…)
Trump has net negative ratings on such questions as temperament — just as he did during the campaign — as well as on judgment to serve as president, and on whether he operates from a consistent set of principles. He has said he likes to be unpredictable.
Half disapprove of the major changes he has proposed for government spending, while nearly 6 in 10 say he is out of touch with the concerns of most people. But on this question, the public is even harsher in judging the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.
Democrats have lost considerable ground on this front. The 28 percent who say the party is in touch with concerns of most Americans is down from 48 percent in 2014 and the biggest drop is among self-identified Democrats, from 83 percent saying they are in touch to just 52 percent today. That is a reminder that whatever challenges Trump is having, Democrats, for all the energy apparent at the grass roots, have their own problems.
The numbers are just as bad in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:
Nearly two-thirds of Americans give President Donald Trump poor or middling marks for his first 100 days in office, including a plurality who say he’s off to a “poor start,” according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Forty-five percent of respondents in the survey believe Trump is off to a poor start, with an additional 19 percent who say it’s been “only a fair start.” That’s compared with a combined 35 percent who think the president’s first three months in office have been either “good” or “great.”
Trump’s 100th day in office takes place on April 29.
By contrast, in the exact same question from April 2009 NBC/WSJ poll, 54 percent of Americans said that Barack Obama’s first 100 days had gotten off to either a good or great start, while 25 percent said they were fair, and 21 percent called them poor.
Trump’s overall job-approval rating stands at 40 percent — down four points from February. It’s the lowest job-approval rating for a new president at this 100-day stage in the history of the NBC/WSJ poll.
At this same point in time of their presidencies, Obama’s overall rating stood at 61 percent in the poll, George W. Bush’s was at 56 percent and Bill Clinton’s was at 52 percent.
By party, 82 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s job, versus just 7 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of independents who give the president a thumbs-up.
Forty percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy, while 44 percent approve of his economic handling.
Asked if Trump’s first 100 days have been more effective or less effective than his predecessors’ starts, 44 percent said Trump’s beginning has been less effective, and 32 percent said it had been more effective; 22 percent said it’s been about as effective.
And 46 percent say that Trump’s leadership and plans for the country make them feel more hopeful, versus 52 percent who say they make them feel more doubtful.
That’s a significant departure from April 2009, when 64 percent of Americans said that Obama’s leadership and plans had made them feel more hopeful, while 30 percent were more doubtful.
The new NBC/WSJ poll also shows an erosion in some of Trump’s top perceived qualities, with 50 percent of respondents giving Trump high marks for being firm and decisive in his decision-making – down from the 57 percent who gave him high marks here in February.
Another 39 percent of Americans give him high marks for changing business as usual in Washington – down from 45 percent two months ago.
Thirty-nine percent give him high marks for being effective and getting things done – down from 46 percent who said this back in February.
And only 25 percent give him high marks for being honest and trustworthy – down from 34 percent.
Meanwhile, his standing is mostly unchanged when it comes to his perceived weaknesses: Just 27 percent give him high marks for being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency, and only 21 percent give him high marks for having the right temperament.
Looking at the polling averages, Trump’s numbers haven’t really improved over the last several times we’ve looked at them. The RealClearPolitics average puts his Job Approval numbers at 42.2% approve and 51.3% disapprove, and while both numbers are slightly better than the highs and lows that they’ve seen since January 20th, they are still fairly bad and the trend indicates that they’re likely to either get worse or continue at this level for the foreseeable future. The Pollster average, which has yet to be updated to include these two new polls but includes all new polling through Friday, Trump’s approval stands at 43.1% while his disapproval stands at 52.0%. Breaking those numbers down along party lines, we continue to get predictable results from both Republicans and Democrats, with the first group overwhelming approving of Trump’s job performance and the second overwhelmingly disapproving. Among Independents, Trump does slightly worse than among the general public as a whole, with just 39.7% approving of the President’s job performance thus far while 52.9% disapprove.
Additionally, a look at the chart of the RealClearPolitics average shows the trend I was noting above. In this chart, you can also see that some of the recent positive developments of Trump’s Presidency, such as the confirmation of Justice Neil Gorsuch and the military strike on Syria, have had at best only a minimal impact on the public’s perception of his Presidency:
Perhaps recognizing the fact that his standing with the public stands at the worst point of any President at this point in their Presidency since the end of World War Two, and the fact that he hasn’t really accomplished very much in his first 100 days and has suffered what can only be described as an embarrassing legislative failure during that period, Trump and his Administration have recently taken to undermine the importance of the benchmark. Both on Twitter and in other public statements, Trump and several of his associates have spent the last week or so dismissing the importance of the first 100 days as a media obsession. To some extent, of course, there is some truth in this statement. There is nothing really special about a President’s first 100 days in office, and the fact that it covers merely 6.85% of a President’s first term and 3,42% of a potential eight-year Presidency means that it really doesn’t provide one with a reliable indicator of how a President’s time in office is going to play out. Historically, of course, the measurement goes back to the first 100 days of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first term, during which several major pieces of legislation were passed and FDR had enacted a number of landmark actions via Executive Order. Those were extraordinary times, though, and they came after FDR had one a historic landslide in the Election of 1932. Most President’s haven’t faced similar circumstances or had similar mandates, and many of them have stumbled for various reasons ranging from nominations that didn’t get through the Senate to the kind of missteps that are seemingly inevitable for a new Administration even when it’s staffed by experienced veterans. Despite those caveats, though, the measurement exists, and it’s worth nothing that Trump did use the “first 100 days” benchmark to back up many of the promises that he was making during the campaign. Based on that, it seems clear that, at least as far as the public is concerned, Trump’s first 100 days, which officially come to an end on Saturday, have been among the least productive and successful in American history. One might say that only William Henry Harrison, who died after thirty days in office, accomplished less. What that portends for the remaining 1,361 days of his first term is something only time will tell.
There exists no recipe for it to get any better.
A joint task force of FBI, CIA, NSA and Treasury has been investigating the Trump syndicate since last summer. They had a mole, Felix Sater, in the campaign the whole time, so unless someone delivers a “president,” no immunity will be forthcoming. The involvement of Treasury speaks to tax evasion and bank fraud, not election tampering or leaking of secrets. Comey has offered zero defense of the white house.
Then we come to the tainted Pence, who would recall Gerald Ford lost handily to a peanut farmer from Georgia.
Which leads us to Paul Ryan, who leads a caucus split three ways. Trump has poured gasoline on that merry tire fire.
Going down the line, next up is the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
Holy crap! That’s Orrin Hatch!
“As End Of First Hundred Days Nears, Trump’s Job Approval Continues To Slump”
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We get it. Trump is the most unpopular President in the history of the Republic. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton still lost, and Trump would likely beat her again if the election were held today.
You far left Liberals need to get out more, and don’t put too much stock in polls from NBC, ABC, CNN, NY Times, etc and the other Trump haters. Those polls do a good job capturing the sentiment of far left cranks in the major urban centers and on the coasts, but do a terrible job capturing the sentiment of Trump’s blue collar base in the Midwest.
@Smooth Jazz: Why are you talking about who would win an election? Trump is President of the USA, not just his base. The question of whether Americans as a whole think the President is honest and effective is relevant to his governance, not a past election. Or a fictional present one.
80% of Americans live within an hour’s drive of the coasts. It’s the midwest that’s weird and abnormal.
@Smooth Jazz: I second Pylon’s comment. Donald Trump is the president of all Americans. He sure doesn’t act like it sometimes. He has called those who oppose him “losers, haters”.
Trump has no tools for broadening his appeal. He is incapable of advancing rational arguments. He’s incapable of human empathy. His rhetorical chops are those of a not-very-bright middle schooler. He has the skills – and only the skills – of a great white shark. He can sense weakness and attack it, which can be a very useful skill in some circumstances, but is useless in attracting support.
There is one and only one thing Trump can do to salvage his popularity, and that is to noticeably improve the economy. Wall Street seemed to imagine he’d do that . . . and then they sobered up.
A third of voters will stick with Trump no matter what because they don’t really care about issues, they care about having a big, blustery white male as their leader. Like @Smooth Jazz they aren’t capable of thinking beyond, “We won!” No matter how Trump betrays them – and boy is he busy betraying them – they will only see white (well. . .) skin and hear a belligerent tone, and since white skin and inchoate anger is all these voters really have in their own little heads, they’ll be happy. Trump will never fall below about 35%.
But there is another slice of maybe 10% of the total electorate who some clever person once called the Trumpcurious. The ‘what the hell,’ voter. The ‘try something different’ voter. You find these people in the gap between the ‘job approval’ and ‘is Trump honest’ questions. These voters will first react defensively – no one likes admitting they were fooled. But reality and the steady opposition of the majority, which inflames the hardcore, will wear on these people. They aren’t belligerent or overtly racist or misogynist, they’re outwardly at least, quite civilized. They are there for the taking, if the Democrats can figure out what the hell they plan to do, can come up with a narrative, and can present it consistently down through state and local as well as national races.
OT, but in France, it’s going to be a run-off between Macron and Le Pen. He got 23.7% of the vote; she got 21.7%.
I would really, really like to be proven wrong about President Trump.
@Gustopher:
Do you think that’s likely to happen?
@Smooth Jazz: Hey, Smoovie! Good to see you. How’s President Palin doing?
@CSK:
Wow, and I thought the we got two terrible choices in the US.
@michael reynolds:
It comes down to what you say: The hardcore Trumpkins will always love Trump not because of what he does, but because of what he is, which is a loudmouthed oaf. Just knowing that there’s a “real American” (i.e., a swinish ignoramus) in the Oval Office rather than a civilized, well-spoken globalist pinko sell-out (because you can’t be anything else if you’re civilized and well-spoken) is enough for them.
Well sure, but FDR had solid Democratic majorities behind him in both houses of congress.
Oh wait…
@Stormy Dragon:
Disregard, I was confusing Macron with Mélenchon.
@Smooth Jazz:
Great – yet another iteration of bloviating Republican chest thumping verbal diarrhea.
Do the world a favor – just STFU. Don’t you have some elderly widows you should be screwing in real estate deals right about now?
@Stormy Dragon:
Yeah, Macron seems OK, and he’s likely to win. Which would make two beatings for the far right – Netherlands and France.
But let’s not kid ourselves. The issue of middle-eastern immigration isn’t going away, and if the EU doesn’t at very least slow the incoming, the next round will be worse. So much of this goes back to Merkel’s morally decent but politically reckless decision to throw the doors open to a million ME economic and political refugees. If the EU economic and employment picture deteriorates, Le Pen may well win in the next go-round – people without jobs get bitchy about foreigners, people with jobs less so.
For now it seems the bullet has been dodged. But the EU needs to decide what it is. Is it Germany and a bunch of satraps? Is it Europe for Europeans? Is it like some idealized US, open to all cultures and races? Is it a unified political as well as economic structure? Can Germans start to see the need for sacrifice and compromise? Germany is both the problem and the potential solution. The EU lives or dies depending on what Merkel and her constituents decide.
@michael reynolds: Trump doesn’t need to expand his appeal, he just needs to keep his base motivated and disciplined. Democrats don’t have a way to counter what we might as well start calling Trumpism and it’s going to be with us long after he’s gone.
Who started this ” hundred” days stuff ?
@Tyrell:
I think it dates from the Roosevelt (FDR) presidency.
@Ben Wolf:
If he starts to lose the Trumpcurious it could flip the House, even the Senate. If that happens, given his inability to broaden his appeal, he’s done.
But that still won’t address the question of WTF Democrats are now. Unless we mean to do more than profit from Trump’s fall you’ll be right and we will be right back here again. We need to act, not just react. I haven’t thought hard on this, but I suspect the answer lies in moving away from failed identity politics, back to a class-based conflict. It turns out women don’t vote ‘as women,’ they vote as fully-rounded humans with a range of interests, most of which are economic.
With African-Americans stalled out as a percentage of the population, the hopes of a demographic victory rest entirely on Latinos and Asians, neither of which is reliably captive of Democrats. Time to get back to a chicken in every pot.
@Smooth Jazz:
How in the hell did Trump lose the popular vote by 3 million votes?
@al-Ternative James Comey:
Well, shucks, man, according to Trump, those 3 million were illegal aliens voting. He said so.
@michael reynolds:
The GOP relies heavily on frequent churchgoers – not a growing demographic.
Isn’t it funny how that works–many blacks and Hispanics are very religious and would seem to be naturally aligned with the conservative religious party…it’s a shame for that party that so many of its members project an open and virulent hostility toward ethnic minorities…the Dems don’t need to play identity politics…Trump and his ilk are doing an excellent job of driving blacks, Hispanics, and Asian-Americans far away from the GOP…all that is needed, as Michael notes, is an appeal to help working people and the middle class…
@al-Ternative James Comey:
Who cares? Popular vote doesn’t count. Besides, without CA & NY, Trump wins the popular vote comfortably. Sorry but far left cranks in CA don’t get to decide our President, especially since the CA vote total is padded and hosed by all the illegals.
The current 18-29 demographic leans heavily Dem, and they’re going to be voting in increasing numbers over the next few years. The cohort that votes strongly GOP is the 65+ group, and the opposite is true of them.
Yeah, and if you don’t count LeBron’s points, Indiana totally won today!
@teve tory: if you don’t count Democrats at all, that Trumpy won a massive landslide!
No surprise, not even news.
If I was building a house, and I hired a carpenter with no references that promised the best, most wonderful, fantastic house ever at lower cost than anyone could do…
I would expect that I hired an idiot, and I was an idiot for hiring them.
Same goes for a presidential candidate with no experience in politics. Not even being a community organizer.
Sure, because he hasn’t accomplished what he said he would, in the rapid manner that he said that he AND ONLY HE could. What did he say? … I am your voice, said Trump. I alone can fix it.
Sure. No surprise there either.
No one wants to admit they’ve been duped.
Credulity is usually defined as “tendency to believe in ideas or things that lack adequate supporting evidence and/or are ridiculous.”
No one wants to amid that THEY are the idiot. Better to double down, because the win is just around the corner.
So, do we set the bar lower? 200 Days? 400 Days?
… pipedream.
I haven’t thought hard on this, but I suspect the answer lies in moving away from failed identity politics, back to a class-based conflict
Disagree.
Clinton won the economic voters over Trump (even in places like WI and MI). While Trump won the voters who cared most about immigration. I think people are over analyzing the election result. The issue wasn’t the D’s campaign on identity politics (if that were the case then what happened in North Carolina? In which the state D’s ran against the trans bill and swept into power, even though Trump won the state.)
The truth is Democrats ran an unpopular candidate, who had been hit hard by 25 years of nonsense. Yglesias from vox has it right that they should run Clinton’s playbook, but just find better candidates to deliver the message.
@Smooth Jazz:
Fun game. And if Lincoln had let the South secede, Trump gets annihilated in the election. Sorry but far right cranks from Oklahoma east to Georgia shouldn’t be allowed to elect low life rich trash like Donald Trump to be our president.
By god you’re right!
No one needs to vote in the next Presidential election and I get to declare the winner!
I certainly can be as stupid and oblivious as the next person but it’s only been a bit more than half a year since blind faith in polling made a bunch of you look ridiculous, yet here we are again. That Trump may be as unpopular now as Obama was six or so years into his Administration only has any meaning if you think starting out so poorly means Trump’s polls are destined to decline to the levels of Bush the Younger.
But no matter how desperately you wish for that, it may not at all work out that way.
Mike
@Yank: they should run Clinton’s playbook, but just find better candidates to deliver the message.
Considering that Hillary’s message was, essentially, “I’m Hillary Clinton. Don’t expect too much,” that might not be such a sure winner. A better candidate would have probably beaten Trump, but how many times are you going to have such weak opposition?
Michael Reynolds is 1000% correct. Democrats need to think long and hard about a whole bunch of things, so they can rise up and give the GOP the beating it so richly deserves and push them into their own reformation. Which is why all this denial about how it was Comey or it was the Russians or it was misogyny or it was how the New York Times was mean to the Clintons is so harmful.
Mike
@MBunge: Clinton’s actually policy proposals were very popular. The whole narrative that she didn’t run on anything is just bull****. The media ignored any policy content throughout the election cycle.
And it would be stupid for Democrats to ignore the Comey factor, it did play a role. Both GOP and D pollsters have said that Clinton saw major drop in support once that letter dropped. Ignoring that factor and learning the wrong things from 2016 (ex. too much identity politics, not enough class-based politics) is recipe to get their ass handed to them next year.
Bungeghazi suffers from a severe case of Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
I don’t even need to read his posts to know that he’s utterly obsessed with anything related to the Clintons. (I would hate to see the corner in his mother’s basement and the voodoo dolls that he has dedicated to them.) Clearly, this website serves as a form of self-medication for poor little Bungester.
Scroll past it. The train wreck simply isn’t worth the bother.
@charon: The Republican response to demographics was to use the language of the old labor left. Remember that Trump stated he “would be the champion of the working class.” This made him less reliant on evangelicals and this is a move we’re going to see more of in the coming years. If we think Trump is bad, wait until someone competent like Ted Cruz begins exploiting that strategy.
The problem with the Democrats “coalition of the ascendant” is the complacency it created. Democrats just assumed the future would be theirs and never thought the Republicans would be able to counter it. But as we’ve seen in 2010 and 2014 when Republicans were bashing big business and a “rigged system”, find a way they did.
@Yank:
They always do. The supposedly liberal MSM don’t do policy.
@Smooth Jazz: “You far left Liberals need to get out more, and don’t put too much stock in polls from NBC, ABC, CNN, NY Times, etc and the other Trump haters. ”
Says the man who kept claiming that all the polls were wrong and that Sarah Palin would be swept into the presidency.
@michael reynolds: Here’s the problem: Middle East migration isn’t going away. And all the European politicians in the world claiming they can stop it won’t change the fact that as the climate changes and the sandy states become incompatible with human life, all those people are going to want to go somewhere. It’s fine for comfortable whites to say they should all be good little ragheads and quietly watch their children starve to death — because the four famines happening now are just the beginning — so that we can keep our lands exactly as we have always imagined them, but that’s not how human beings roll.
We can talk about how terrible all these immigrants are. Or we can start to face the fact that there is a disaster looming in front of us, and if we don’t start working on a real plan for it it’s going to overwhelm everyone.
@Smooth Jazz: “Besides, without CA & NY, Trump wins the popular vote comfortably.”
Without CA and NY, what’s the GNP of the United States?
@MBunge: Shorter Mbunge:; “Every day as Trump beclowns himself more and more, I get closer to admitting I supported him all along.”