Mitt Romney Leads In New Pennsylvania Poll

Two days after losing three more primaries, Rick Santorum appears to be in trouble in his home state:

Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum’s viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.

Santorum’s favorability numbers haven’t really changed from a month ago. He was at 64/30 and now he’s at 62/31. But Romney’s seen quite a bit of improvement in his image, perhaps reflecting growing acceptance that he will be the nominee. His favorability has improved a net 16 points from +6 (46/40) to +22 (57/35).

Romney’s made huge in roads with the groups that have tended to fuel Santorum’s success. What was a 37 point lead for Santorum with Evangelicals is now only 10 points at 44-34. What was a 32 point advantage for him with Tea Party voters is now only 6 at 41-35. And in the greatest sign that conservatives are starting to really around Romney a little bit, what was a 51 point deficit for him with ‘very conservative’ voters is now only 11 points at 44-33.

This poll was taken yesterday so likely includes at least some reflection of the impact of Romney’s three victories on Tuesday night. It’s also the first poll to show Romney leading in the the Keystone State, but it’s likely not to be the last. If this trend continues, the GOP race may finally be coming to an end on April 24th.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Quick Takes, US Politics, , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Fiona says:

    It’s not like Santorum hasn’t lost big in Pennsylvania before. Besides, it would be poetic justice if the state that foisted him on the national political scene took him down once and for all. Time for Rick to start sucking up to Fox News in hopes of a lucrative “analyst” position.

  2. Buffalo Rude says:

    I can tell you from personal experience that even in rural, deep-red Republican PA, Monsignor Santorum is not a well liked man. And I don’t think it’s because he was the bottom bitch in the Senate for the K Street Project or the whole Schiavo fiasco. He’s just a very unlikeable person. At least that’s the vibe I got from many a Republican voter/politician from that region. Being a sanctimonious prick probably doesn’t help him, either.

  3. Speaking of non-Romneys in trouble, the Gingrich Group filed for bankruptcy today:

  4. Nicholas says:

    Can someone please explain to me what the BIG differences between Romney and Obama are? They both agree on continuing our fantasy-land monetary policies (paying the Federal Reserve billions to print our money, devaluing our dollars at 6-10% per year), will continue adding to our debt until at least year 2030 – what is that 30-50 Trillion dollars in debt by then – REALLY?. They both will continue perpetual war, overthrowing foreign governments, spending trillions overseas while we are broke. They both will continue us towards a police state: assassination/indefinite detention of US citizens, Patriot Act, Trespass Act, drones over US, ect… They both will continue corporate welfare. They both are largely funded by the same bankers. And are both proven liars. Why are they our only 2 options?

    I’m voting Ron Paul, even if I have to write his name in.

  5. grumpy realist says:

    @Nicholas: thus demonstrating what? A protest vote only makes sense if it has an effect.

    I predict that the number of votes for Ron Paul are going to range somewhere between “noise” and “people voting for the Marxist-Green party”

    In other words, no effect at all.

  6. Paula says:

    Pennsylvania will tell Santorum to go home to Virginia! Santorum has an ego that is much larger than his brains.